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Beitrag90/300, 05.08.12, 16:43:40 
Antworten mit Zitat
CEO Keith Hill steps up to the plate ahead of the upcoming spudding of 3 wells!

He bought twice last week; 33,900 total shares for $250,337.

Also, KH hasn't sold those 400,000 options he exercised about a month ago. Ian Gibbs hasn't sold the 100,000 options he exercised on 7/12. James Phillips has sold shares, but then, he was the only insider selling earlier in the year. Those sells were for $2.00.

http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=aoi


From the 7/25/12 Tullow half year report:

Major discovery made at Ngamia-1 in Kenya; 1.1 km thick gross oil bearing interval with over 100 metres of net pay recorded; Kenyan exploration campaign accelerated and increased.

The well has now been suspended and an appraisal programme is being developed to test the extent of the discovery. An accelerated 2D seismic infill programme has also been completed over the discovery to define the outline of the trap. Exploration activity will continue with the Twiga-1 well which is expected to commence in late-August and is located, on-trend, 30 km from Ngamia in Block 13T. This will be followed by flow testing at the Ngamia-1 well.

This significant exploration result demonstrates that substantial oil generation has occurred in the South Lokichar Basin, which is one of seven basins in the Kenya-Ethiopia Rift Basins acreage, each of which is similar in magnitude to the Lake Albert Rift Basin in Uganda, which are yet to be de-risked by basin testing wildcat wells.

A Full Tensor Gradiometry (FTG) Gravity Survey has been completed across most of the Kenya-Ethiopia licence blocks, an area of around 100,000 sq km. Over 100 leads and prospects have been identified in the seven related basins. Additional 2D and 3D seismic data will be acquired for a planned accelerated exploration campaign, starting with the 4,500 metre deep Paipai-1 well in Block 10A which is expected to commence drilling at the end of the third quarter of 2012. The drill-site for the Sabisa-1 prospect in the South Omo block in Ethiopia is also currently under construction with the aim to commence drilling in the fourth quarter of 2012.
http://www.tullowoil.com/files/pdf/results/half_year_report2

AOIFF/Tullow will be back in the news, in a big way, starting in a couple of weeks!
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Beitrag89/300, 05.08.12, 16:45:20 
Antworten mit Zitat
http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?m....rsearch=AOI+|+Africa+Oil+
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Beitrag88/300, 06.08.12, 08:51:18 
Antworten mit Zitat
30.07.2012 | Nico Popp

Interview Michael Monnerjahn, Afrikaverein der Dt. Wirtschaft

„Kenia ist das Vorzeigeland der Region“

Vom beliebten Touristik-Ziel zum Rohstoffproduzenten: Kenia befindet sich im Wandel und blickt in eine stabile Zukunft. Über den neuen Enthusiasmus ums Öl, deutsche Unternehmen vor Ort und die Rolle der Politik sprach econoafrica.de mit Michael Monnerjahn vom Afrikaverein der deutschen Wirtschaft.

econoafrica:
Herr Monnerjahn, Kenia ist nicht zuletzt durch die jüngsten Ölfunde vor der Küste in den Fokus der Medien geraten. Wie schätzen Sie das Thema ein?

Monnerjahn:
In erster Linie wurde in Kenia auf dem Festland Öl gefunden. Offshore fängt die Entwicklung gerade erst an. Daher sind die Funde vor der Küste auch eher schwer einzuschätzen. Anders dagegen in der Region um den Turkana-See: Dort sind die Vorkommen bereits relativ genau zu beziffern. Grundsätzlich lässt sich sagen, dass Kenia und Ostafrika im Allgemeinen bei der Suche nach Öl und Gas noch ganz am Anfang stehen. Ich gehe davon aus, dass sich die Unternehmen aus Kostengründen zunächst einmal auf Ölprojekte auf dem Festland konzentrieren und Offshore-Projekte erst später erschließen.

econoafrica:
Derzeit fördert Kenia noch kein Öl. Welche Folgen könnte es für die Volkswirtschaft haben, sollte Kenia zum Ölproduzenten werden?

Monnerjahn:
Kenia importiert derzeit jährlich Erdöl im Wert von vier Milliarden US-Dollar. Diese Importe könnten ab 2016 hinfällig werden. Dann will das Unternehmen Tullow Oil täglich 200.000 Barrel Öl fördern. Derzeit verbraucht Kenia lediglich 100.000 Barrel Öl am Tag. Das bedeutet, dass Kenia in den nächsten Jahren nicht nur seinen Bedarf decken kann, sondern auch Einnahmen aus dem Erdölexport erzielen wird. Kenia ist bereits unabhängig von den Ölfunden ein Vorzeigeland in der Region. Nairobi ist die Dienstleistungsmetropole Ostafrikas und hat die beste Infrastruktur in der Gegend. Die Folgeinvestitionen der Energieprojekte werden diesen Status weiter festigen. Ein gutes Beispiel für eine solche Entwicklung ist Ghana. Dort wird seit einem Jahr Öl gefördert und prompt ist die Volkswirtschaft um elf Prozent gewachsen. In Kenia könnte dies ähnlich ablaufen. Wenn es die Regierung Kenias versteht, dafür zu sorgen, dass die künftigen Einnahmen aus dem Öl-Export vernünftig eingesetzt werden, können sich sehr positive Impulse für das Land ergeben.

econoafrica:
Spielen in Kenia eigentlich auch regenerative Energien eine Rolle?

Monnerjahn:
Kenia setzt sehr stark auf erneuerbare Energien wie Geothermie, Windkraft und Wasserkraft. In der Turkana-Region gibt es derzeit beispielsweise Pläne für einen ersten großen Windpark.

econoafrica:
Hohe Wachstumsraten lassen sich nur in einem stabilen Investitionsumfeld erzielen. Wie stabil ist das politische System Kenias?

Monnerjahn:
Auch hier könnte Ghana Vorbild für Kenia sein. Das Land hat sich in den vergangenen zwanzig Jahren politisch reformiert und im Vergleich zu den 1960er oder 1970er Jahren deutliche Fortschritte gemacht. Bei der Erdölgesetzgebung hat sich Ghana etwa an der norwegischen Gesetzgebung orientiert, die unter anderem die Einrichtung von Fonds vorsieht, so dass die Einnahmen nicht sofort und unkontrolliert ausgegeben werden. Eine ähnliche Entwicklung wäre grundsätzlich auch in Kenia möglich. Obwohl Kenia manchmal noch den Ruf als eines der korruptesten Länder der Welt hat, gibt es doch Fortschritte. Vieles hat sich in den vergangenen Jahren zum Besseren gewendet. Auch die rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen sind stabil. Infolge der Unruhen vor einigen Jahren hat Kenia eine neue Verfassung ausgearbeitet. Beide großen politischen Blöcke bekennen sich dazu und haben mehrfach betont, dass man solche Ausschreitungen in Kenia nie wieder sehen möchte. Außerdem gibt es in Kenia eine lebendige Zivilgesellschaft, welche die Entwicklung trotz aller berechtigten Kritik ebenfalls positiv sieht.

econoafrica:
Welche deutschen Konzerne sind denn schon vor Ort?

Monnerjahn:
In Kenia gibt es eine ganze Reihe an Unternehmen aus Deutschland. Unter anderem große Dax-Unternehmen wie SAP, BASF und Bayer. Die beiden letztgenannten machen ihr Geschäft in Kenia vor allem in der Landwirtschaft. Dabei geht es um den Anbau von Tee, Rosen oder auch Winterbohnen. BASF und Bayer liefern dabei unter anderem Düngemittel und Pestizide. Recht stark ist auch Beiersdorf in Kenia vertreten. Sie finden kaum einen Supermarkt in Kenia, der nicht eine „Nivea-Ecke“ mit Beiersdorf-Produkten hat. Weitere Unternehmen sind die Neumann-Gruppe aus Hamburg oder das Bremer Achelis-Handelshaus, das schon seit fünfzig Jahren in Ostafrika tätig ist. Die positive Dynamik des Landes wird auch an der Eröffnung eines Delegiertenbüros der deutschen Wirtschaft deutlich, die offiziell am 27. September im Rahmen des ersten Deutsch-Kenianischen Wirtschaftsforums in Nairobi stattfinden wird.

econoafrica:
Vor einigen Monaten machte die Gründung einer deutschen Allianz zur Sicherung von Rohstoffvorkommen Schlagzeilen. Sind in diesem Zusammenhang bereits deutsche Unternehmen in Kenia oder den Nachbarländern tätig?

Monnerjahn:
In Kenia und auch in den anderen Ländern Ostafrikas gibt es noch kein deutsches Engagement zur Sicherung von Rohstoffvorkommen. Die gesamte Region steht bei der Exploration von Rohstoffen noch am Anfang. Eine Ausnahme ist vielleicht Tansania, wo seit einigen Jahren Gold gefördert wird. Alle anderen Länder der Region bezeichnen sich selbst als unterexploriert.

http://www.econoafrika.com/?hp=468
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Beitrag87/300, 07.08.12, 08:58:53 
Antworten mit Zitat
Tullow Oil to launch Drilling

Monday, 06 August 2012 12:07 Meron Tekleberhan Ethiopian Business News - Energy and Mining

Tullow Oil is set launch drilling activities on its concession in the South Omo region of Ethiopia. The international gas and oil exploration company expects to begin drilling in January of 2013 according to a senior official with the Ethiopian Ministry of Mines.

Tullow Oil had informed Ethiopian officials of oil reserves potentially larger then discovered in Uganda or Kenya while the company was finalizing its Full Tensor Gradimametric Gravity Survey and collecting seisimic Data.

The company’s management has assured Ethiopian authorities of oil discoveries within a year although officials have been reluctant to raise expectations amongst the public with more evidence it was said.
Tullow has officially announced that it would begin drilling in the coming January after a delay of three months from its original plan.

The ministry hopes for positive results from the drilling activity said Sinkinesh Ejegu, State Minister for Mines.

It is to be remembered Tullow signed an agreement with the Ethiopian Ministry of Mines for the exploration of the South Omo Block through the Canadian based Africa Oil plc. The company acquired concession rights for 50% of the block in 2010 and has since managed to extend it to 65%.

Tullow has concession rights in 23 countries across the world including in Uganda, Ghana and Kenya in Africa. The company has been able to strike gold in Kenya and Uganda with the reserves in Kenya estimated to be about 1.1 billion barrels of oil.

http://www.2merkato.com/201208061519/tullow-oil-to-launch-dr
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Beitrag86/300, 07.08.12, 09:01:31 
Antworten mit Zitat
Africa Oil hat 30 % Working Interest "South Omo Block"
Auszug Homepage Africa Oil:
"South Omo lies in the Omo Rift Valley of south-western Ethiopia. The block spans 30,688 square kilometres and is within the Tertiary age East African Rift, just north of Lake Turkana, Kenya and within the same petroleum system as the Company's Kenya Block 10BB and Tullow's Uganda discoveries."

Quelle: http://www.africaoilcorp.com/s/Ethiopia.asp?ReportID=352253
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Beitrag85/300, 07.08.12, 14:18:44 
Antworten mit Zitat
CCG-Redaktion schrieb am 05.08.2012, 16:45 Uhr
http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=AOI+|+Africa+Oil+


Just to get up to date with the holding of our CEO.

As of the 24th July 2012 he held 1,026,316 shares and 1,267,000 options.

http://www.africaoilcorp.com/s/InsiderHoldings.asp

Now we know he made very recent additional purchases, on the open market, of 31,300 @ $7.37 and 2,600 @ $7.56. An additional investment of $250,337 in total.

http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?m....earch=AOI+%7C+Africa+Oil+

Therefore his current holding is as follows -

1,060,216 shares and 1,267,000 options

At the current SP level of $7.60 his share holding is significant at $8,057,641

Warnado III Board
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Beitrag84/300, 10.08.12, 12:49:11 
Antworten mit Zitat
Folgendes gerade in London:

RMP up 28%
RRL up 15%
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Beitrag83/300, 13.08.12, 10:01:26 
Antworten mit Zitat
Das scheint recht vielversprechend zu werden, auch aufgrund der Einschätzung von Tullow. Wir hattem im Operations Update/First Quarter Report ja noch den Hinweis erhalten dass der Antrag auf ein production sharing agreement gestellt wurde (http://www.africaoilcorp.com/s/Operations_Update.asp). Vielleicht bekommen wir mit dem Q2 (spätestens zum 29.08.) weitere Infos.

Ich habe in den vergangenen Tagen zu Äthiopien etwas "in die Breite" recherchiert, und bin noch über folgende Links gestolpert:
- Ministry of Mines / Rund um Öl: http://www.mom.gov.et/Petroleum.aspx
- Ministry of Mines / Lizenzgebiete: http://www.mom.gov.et/upload/license%20areas.pdf (Leider ohne Unternehmenszuordung)
- Ministry of Mines / Info-PDF: http://www.mom.gov.et/upload/Brocur....al%20of%20Ethiopia.pdfDie Homepage ist insgesamt (noch?) sehr rudimentär. Man findet z.B. aber auch Musterverträge.

Hier gibt es noch alte Farmout-Ausschreibungsunterlagen von Lundin Petroleum, von denen die heute in AOI-besitz befindlichen Blöcke Adigala sowie 7 und 8 stammen. Sie geben weitere Infos zur Geographie:
http://www.op-finder.com/OPF/Docs/Ethiopia_Lundin_Farmout.pdfDer Rift Valley Study Block ist hier leider nicht inbegriffen, der war nicht in Lundin-Besitz.
Kommentar Motz1 WO
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Beitrag82/300, 13.08.12, 21:22:17 
Antworten mit Zitat
No work started yet at Tullow Oil’s Ngamia1 well
Monday, 13 August 2012 00:05 BY SOLOMON KIRIMI
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TAKE OFF: A view of Ngamia1 oil righ in Lokichar, Turkana. The righ is owned by Tullow and Africa Oil. Photo/FILE

TAKE OFF: A view of Ngamia1 oil righ in Lokichar, Turkana. The righ is owned by Tullow and Africa Oil. Photo/FILE

Testing equipment for the appraisal stage of determining the commercial viability of Tullow Oil's Ngamia 1 well field are yet to reach the site two months after drilling was stopped to give way for the tests. The equipments landed in Mombasa a couple of months ago for the journey through Nairobi to Turkana. Several truckloads of the heavy machinery, tools and chemical materials will be hauled by road to the site where Tullow has declared could be the largest of oil find in East Africa.

"We are mobilising various equipment to various sites. We've got great support from the port officials and Kenya Bureau of Standards and so far everything is going on smoothly" said Anne Kabugi, Tullow Kenya corporate affairs advisor last week. Tullow has already relocated the bellwether rig which was used to sink wells at Ngamia 1's block10BB near Lokichar in Turkana district, to an adjacent Block 13T Twiga1 site which is about 33 north of Ngamia1.

The testing equipment is expected to be used for comprehensive appraisal of deposits discovered in a total of 143 meter column in the Block 10BB at a depth of 2,340 metres, where the drilling was topped 360 metres short of the 2700 metres initial target. The discovery raised the total net oil pay nearly 10 times more than Tullow’s initial estimate of 17 metres before the drilling started.

Tullow had previously predicted that the Ngamia wells could yield billions of barrels, well above the commercial threshold for a pipeline development of 250-300 million barrels. Tullow's second bellwether rig components have already landed in Mombasa port.The rig was planned to drill secondary wells at the Ngamia1 as well as other blocks in the Turkana north blocks as the company engages a higher drilling gear buoyed by the encouraging results in Ngamia1.

Kenya has stepped up its oil find efforts and on Friday, US explorer Apache Corp said it will soon start to drill an offshore well off the Indian Ocean. Apache will will drill in an area known as the Mbawa prospect on block L8 in the Indian Ocean.
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Beitrag81/300, 14.08.12, 13:20:49 
Antworten mit Zitat
UPDATE 2-S.Sudan says oil pipeline via Kenya to cost $3 bln

Fri Aug 10, 2012 3:11pm GMT
Landlocked country seeks to end reliance on Sudan

* Crude reserves to act as guarantee for financiers
* Kenya plans new refinery

By Kelly Gilblom

NAIROBI, Aug 10 (Reuters) - A pipeline allowing South Sudan to export its oil via the Kenyan port of Lamu, freeing the landlocked country from reliance on a route through Sudan, will cost $3 billion, Finance Minister Kosti Manibe said.

Manibe said that although South Sudan did not have the money to pay for the pipeline's entire cost, the newly independent country would invest in the project and had the necessary reserves of crude to offer guarantee to any financiers.

"The 2,000 km pipeline will cost approximately $3 billion dollars," he told a news conference in Nairobi on Friday.

"We don't need to have the money right now, we have the reserves," he said. "South Sudan will definitely have equity in the pipeline," he added.

Officials expect construction on the pipeline will begin by June 2013 and last two years. They said it will be able to transport between 700,000 barrels and 1 million barrels of Southern Sudanese crude per day.

South Sudan has 7 billion in proven reserves, the country's energy minister Stephen Dhieu Dau said.

South Sudan seceded from Sudan last year and the two countries have disagreed over how much the Juba government should pay to transport its oil output through Sudan.

They reached an interim deal last Friday, ending a row that led to the shutdown in January of southern oil production of 350,000 barrels per day.

Oil is essential to both economies and made up 98 percent of South Sudan's budget.

China was the biggest buyer of South Sudanese oil before the shutdown, and Chinese state firms are the biggest oil operators in the world's youngest country.

In January, South Sudan signed an agreement with neighbouring Kenya, the region's largest economy, to build the pipeline to connect its oil fields with Lamu, which is under construction.

The pipeline could also transport crude from Kenya's Turkana area, where British explorer Tullow Oil found oil deposits in March should they be prove to be commercially viable, said Kiraitu Murungi, Kenya's energy minister.

"We believe from the indications that we've been given that we if we are lucky we might have as much oil as (South) Sudan. Any extra that we don't use in the country we are going to put in the same pipeline as the Sudanese oil and export it through the port of Lamu," said Murungi.

Murungi said the country is also planning to build a second refinery in the northeastern town of Isiolo to produce up to 100,000 barrels per day and refine crude from Turkana.

Kenya already has another refinery near the port of Mombasa, processing 1.6 million tonnes of crude a year.

http://af.reuters.com/article/southSudanNews/idAFL6E8JAA1L20
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Beitrag80/300, 14.08.12, 16:59:13 
Antworten mit Zitat
regarding the article I posted earlier which appeared here http://www.the-star.co.ke/business/....gamia1-well-remains-idle- regarding the transportation of testing equipment to the Ngamia-1 site.

The article is a poorly written piece. As we had previously stated, it was to take time getting the testing equipment to the well site so rather than sit idle for the last couple of months we decided to prepare to drill the next exploration well – Twiga. There are no delays, its just a process that has to run its course and the testing kit will be on site when we are back at Ngamia later in the year following Twiga which is on course to spud in the coming weeks. The rig move and assembly at Twiga continues as planned.

Many thanks,

James Arnold
Investor Relations Manager - Tullow Oil plc
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Beitrag79/300, 14.08.12, 21:45:35 
Antworten mit Zitat
Thank you for your email. There is a typo in page 25. The Ethiopia well is due to spud in Q4 and PaiPai is due to spud in Q3.

Many thanks,
James Arnold

Investor Relations Manager - Tullow Oil plc
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Beitrag78/300, 14.08.12, 21:48:50 
Antworten mit Zitat
Cannacord:

Africa Oil* (AOI : TSX-V : $8.30), Net Change: 0.23, % Change: 2.85%, Volume: 224,557
Breaking up is hard to do. As reported in the Globe and Mail, speaking in Kenya, South Sudanese Finance Minister Kosti Manibe announced that the country plans to build a 2,000 km pipeline to ship oil from South Sudan to the Kenyan port of Lamu.
The plan will help South Sudan end reliance on its current pipeline route that goes through its rival Sudan. Officials expect the pipeline to cost $3 billion with construction to begin by June 2013 and last two years. The pipeline will be able to transport between 700,000 and 1,000,000 barrels of Southern Sudanese crude per day. It could also transport crude from Kenya’s Turkana
area, where British explorer Tullow Oil and Africa Oil found oil deposits in March, should it prove to be commercially viable, said Kiraitu Murungi, Kenya’s energy minister. After success at Ngamia-1, AOI and Tullow have moved their drilling rig over to their Twiga-1 target. Twiga-1 is 30 km northeast in Block 13T along the western basin bounding fault on trend with Ngamia. Once this drilling has completed it is planned to use this rig to return to Ngamia-1 for the above mentioned flow testing. Two additional rigs are being sourced, one for the Pai Pai prospect in Kenya Block 10A and one for the Sabisa prospect in the South Omo block in Ethiopia. These wells are expected to spud late in the third and the fourth quarters of 2012, respectively. Three seismic crews are now active in the Teritiary rift trend and a proposal to acquire 3D seismic over the Ngamia discovery is under consideration.
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Beitrag77/300, 15.08.12, 13:32:30 
Antworten mit Zitat
http://www.di.se/finansiell-informa....79-454f-a423-2f3e6ef43f61

Neue Analyse!
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Beitrag76/300, 15.08.12, 20:02:51 
Antworten mit Zitat
KH alluded to this during his last presentation and I fully expect an increase to be announced very soon.

Gaffney, Cline & Associates are the guys responsible for this.

Warnado1
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Beitrag75/300, 15.08.12, 20:03:48 
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Roughly translated.......

http://www.di.se/finansiell-informa....79-454f-a423-2f3e6ef43f61

(addition: the last paragraph, Remium estimate) (Bloomberg) Pareto Öhman predicts that the Kenyan oil discovery Ngamia-1 contains at least 250 million barrels of oil. The bank conceded that the upside is significant. It writes Pareto Öhman in a daily updated analysis. For the entire Lockhar area tracks investment bank that reserves could amount to at least 1.6 billion barrels, according to the analysis. Tullow Oil has previously indicated a figure of 9-10 billion barrels of all the Company's licenses in Kenya and Ethiopia. A reserve update third-party applications are expected soon, more precisely in the middle of August. In Block 10BB, where Ngamia 1 well is located, is Africa Oil half owner along with operator Tullow. Pareto Öhman has a buy recommendation and price target of $ 100 for Africa Oil's shares. Remium in turn believes that Ngamia-1 contains 250-320 million barrels.
Henrik Svensson +46 8 5191 7924
Direkt

mt
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Beitrag74/300, 15.08.12, 20:07:19 
Antworten mit Zitat
Translated from -

http://www.di.se/finansiell-informa....79-454f-a423-2f3e6ef43f61

(Bloomberg) Pareto Ohman tracks to the Kenyan oil discovery Ngamia-1 contains at least 250 million barrels of oil.

The bank conceded that the upside is significant.

It writes Pareto Ohman in a day's fresh analysis.

For the full Lockhar area tracks investment bank that reserves could amount to at least 1.6 billion barrels, according to the analysis.

Tullow Oil has previously indicated a figure of 9-10 billion barrels for the company any licenses in Kenya and Ethiopia.

A reserve update third-party is expected shortly, more precisely in the middle of August. In Block 10BB, where Ngamia 1 well is located, is Africa Oil joint owner along with operator Tullow. Pareto Öhman has köprekommendation and price target of $ 100 for Africa Oil's share. Remium in turn determines that Ngamia-1 contain 250-320 million barrels.


Henrik Svensson +46 8 5191 7924
News Agency Direkt
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Beitrag73/300, 16.08.12, 08:54:58  | III Board
Antworten mit Zitat
Given the forthcoming work program I thought it might be a good idea to review where we currently stand and give some consideration to the planned work going forward.

Currently we know that operations at Ngamia-1 are virtually at a stand still waiting for the arrival of testing equipment. Besides, the rig used for Ngamia-1 has moved onto Twiga-1 and will return to conduct flow-testing which, in my opinion, will be well into the latter of 2012 even early 2013 is a possibility.

The discovery at Ngamia-1 is still unknown but most believe it is significant which I do not doubt in the slightest.

As recent as today Pareto Ohman is of the opinion that Ngamia-1 contains "at least 250 million barrels of oil". In the same article they also state that "Remium in turn determines that Ngamia-1 contain 250-320 million barrels".

Previously even Tullow commented that Ngamia-1 is their best ever well and the net pay encountered so far is far in excess of any wells they have drilled in neighbouring Uganda. They even went as far to say that 9-10 billion barrels was not impossible for the company across Kenya and Ethiopia.

I am going to use a previous post of mine for the basis of the rest of this post.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/det....ion=detail&id=9683197

Within this post I attempted a volumetric estimate exercise based on some calculations made earlier in May, around the 9th/10th, by a Bay Street brokerage company for the discovery at Ngamia-1 at that present time which was "total net oil pay encountered so far has increased to in excess of 100 metres across multiple reservoir zones".

Before drilling it was estimated that "pre-drill P50 recoverable resource estimate of 45 million barrels was predicated on some 17 m of net oil pay".

In simple terms AOI's internal estimated resources calculation concluded that for every 17mtrs of net pay oil the P50 recoverable resource estimate would stand at of 45 million barrels of oil. See page 9 of the January/March presentation below -

http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/....Presentation_Jan_2012.pdf

http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/UBS-March-2012.pdf

You will also notice on pages 9 of both presentations they give P10 recoverable resource estimates which stand at 180 million barrels of oil.

We now know that drilling has concluded and "In addition to the greater than 100 meters of net light oil pay in the Upper Lokhone Sand section previously reported, the well encountered an additional 43 meters of potential oil pay based on logs".

http://www.thepressreleasewire.com/....eleaseSeq=4&year=2012

So it could be fair to say we have at least 143mtrs of net pay at Ngamia-1, therefore if 17mtrs = 45MMBO, using the same logic 143mtrs = 378.5MMBO (143mtrs / 17mtrs = 8.41 * 45MMBO = 378.5MMBO).

I know this is very speculative to the extreme and in all probability incorrect but lets use the same logic going forward for the next wells planned, Twiga-1, Pai-Pai in Q3 and Sabisa-1 in Q4.

We need to use the figure of 8.41 as this is currently the multiple by which previous internal estimated resources at Ngamia-1 have increased.

Twiga-1

Although we have no official estimates of this planned well we can use the reserves/resources page on the AOI website -

http://www.africaoilcorp.com/s/Reserves_Resources.asp

These estimates are dated now and this can be seen by the fact that Ngamia-1 was formerly known as Fise and Fisi with a Gross Best Estimate of 40MMBO.

Twiga is still Twiga on this list and the Gross Best Estimate for this is 56MMBO.

Therefore 56MMBO * 8.41 becomes 470.9MMBO

Pai-Pai-1 -

Page 16 of the most recent AOI presentation dated May 2012 -

http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/AOI_May_2012.pdf

P10: 287 MMBO
P50: 116 MMBO

Therefore 116MMBO * 8.41 becomes 975.5MMBO (P50) and 287MMBO * 8.41 becomes 2,413.6MMBO (P10).

Sabisa
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Beitrag72/300, 16.08.12, 15:12:01 
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http://www.privataaffarer.se/borsgu....-rekommenderar-ko-2142503
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Beitrag71/300, 17.08.12, 08:56:15 
Antworten mit Zitat
Posting von superoilhunter bei stockhouse.com:

AFRICA OIL: Pareto TRACK NGAMIA-1 CONTENTS OF MORE THAN 250 MLN FAT (NY)
2012-08-15 11:56

(Appendix: last paragraph, Remiums estimate) (Bloomberg) Pareto Ohman predicts that the Kenyan oil discovery Ngamia-1 contains at least 250 million barrels of oil. The bank conceded that the upside is significant. It writes Pareto Ohman in a day's fresh analysis. For the full Lockhar area tracks investment bank that reserves could amount to at least 1.6 billion barrels, according to the analysis. Tullow Oil has previously indicated a figure of 9-10 billion barrels for the company any licenses in Kenya and Ethiopia. A reserve update third-party is expected shortly, more precisely in the middle of August. In Block 10BB, where Ngamia 1 well is located, is Africa Oil joint owner along with operator Tullow. Pareto Öhman has köprekommendation and price target of $ 100 (kroner) or 15/usd for Africa Oil's share. Remium in turn determines that Ngamia-1 contain 250-320 million barrels.

___________________________________________________________________________
At least 1.6 billion barrels in this basin alone... so I assume this 15 usd price target is JUST for this ONE well.. as the wells are proven up.. price target will have also go up. That price target does look a bit low.. Another brokerage house broke it down pretty good( forgot who) said... 1 billion barrels found would equal to about about 20/share for AOIs share. Say 10 billion barrels found in total ( after 3-5 yrs) AOI price = 100/share USD.. and if they get into the refining business and don't sellout at a hefty premium, I see AOIs price way way higher than the 100/share in 3-5 yrs.
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Beitrag70/300, 17.08.12, 09:03:41 
Antworten mit Zitat
http://www.aktiespararna.se/artikla....-visa-pa-stor-potential-/

Pareto: Africa Oil's resource report will be of great potential

Pareto Ohman reiterates buy recommendation and target price of SEK 100 on Africa Oil. Analysis house expects that Africa Oil will release its third-party resource report in the coming days, which will not only reveal the size of Ngamia discovery, but also potential resources in Kenya and Ethiopia.

From an analysis dated August 15.

"Our focus is on Ngamia discovery, which we believe have at least 250 mmbo gross, and the exploration of resources in Lokichar, which we estimate to 1.6 billion barrels," the Pareto Ohman.

Over the next few days are expected to Africa Oil drop a third party resource report. The focus of the report will be an estimated volume of Ngamia-discovery in Kenya, which was announced earlier this year. The valuation is Pareto Ohman estimated the size of Ngamia discovery to 250 mmbo gross, but believe there is great growth potential for this estimate.

An important consequence of Ngamia discovery is to reduce the risk of similar exploration along the same trend in Lokichar basin in block 10BB and 13T. The surprising scope of discovery will likely lead to the size of these is greater than previously thought.

"We appreciate the potential resources for Lokichar basin to at least 1.6 billion barrels," the Pareto Ohman.

According to statements by Tullow Oil representatives, they believe that the licenses in Kenya and Ethiopia can keep as much as 10 billion barrels gross. Although this significant amounts Pareto Ohman think it wise to focus on the exploration to be drilled in the coming months, as this will be most relevant to the value of the shares in the short term.
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Beitrag69/300, 17.08.12, 11:01:07 
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https://www.avanza.se/aza/press/press_article.jsp?article=226086

Posted: 2012-08-17 09:24

What does Africa Oil on our present stock market?

CHRONICLE: Lundin company Africa Oil now belongs to one of the Stockholm Stock Exchange's most actively traded shares. The question is what it says about the stock market certainty that a pure chance-share sailing into trendy-list?

It is a day in the middle of August when many people have come back from vacation, stock market should be awake, eager for new efforts for the fall. Then open the stock market with a marginal decline in small business. The shops are dominated by Volvo, Ericsson - and Africa Oil.

During the day falls Africa Oil is certainly the list of the most actively traded stocks. But the fact remains that even after lunch, when giants like H & M, Nordea and Atlas Copco had turned into three-digit million range, is Africa Oil traded more than, say, Scania, Husqvarna and Tele2.

And if you compare it to Africa Oil's market capitalization, approximately 13.5 billion, the turnover rate is phenomenal. The share is traded in the same volumes as a company with many times greater market capitalization.

In fact, about the size peningvärde traded daily in Africa Oil in the Norwegian oil giant Statoil.

Most of Africa Oil's shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange. It is very possible that the great commerce of the Canadian investor's shares also in Stockholm.

But there is no escaping the fact that Africa Oil has become a trendy-share among Swedish investors. Investors want to own it, they wish to join it by both buy and sell depending on the mood of the day. Africa Oil has long been the most debated shares on placera.nu's chat forum. The reviews are numerous and strong.

The company has certainly come up with promising information about the deposits in the regions the company operates in. But it has also come up with downward adjustments.

The fact remains that this is not a Statoil, which in 2011 earned 214 billion Norwegian crowns before tax.

This is an exploration company that has not yet sold a single drop. The entire stock price, which this year has risen by 455 percent, based on an expectation that the company will find large amounts of oil and be able to pump up and sell it with good profitability, or sell the field to someone else who can make fields profitable.

The most optimistic talk about Africa Oil can sit on more than 1 billion barrels of oil just in Kenya. Others speak of 250 million. I have no idea, and it has no one else does either. The figures which figure among analysts is conjecture, which may form the basis for savers' hunches.

But that comparison may be mentioned that Statoil has proven reserves of 5.4 billion barrels and a functioning production capacity and infrastructure. Statoil's market capitalization is approximately 475 billion NOK.

One-fifth the size of proven reserves, would by the same score as for Statoil, theoretically, be able to provide a market capitalization of up to 100 billion. Joy calculations thus provides breathtaking views of Africa Oil.

Meanwhile, the risk of the business is extremely high. Operations are conducted in countries that most Swedish investors have very low knowledge. There are political risks and a debate has recently svallat in Sweden on the advisability of being active in, for example, Ethiopia and Sudan. And the business is so complex that they almost have to be a geologist to understand and evaluate it.

So how can an extreme risk share, politically incorrect, with subtle activity to become one of the most popular in a public situation where the vast majority of savers pull cold feet for fear of what will happen in the world economy? Should not the shares that are proven to be historically safe to be the most sought after in such a situation? Swedish Match, TeliaSonera?

My answer is that Africa Oil is a share that is seen as detached from the world economy. If the company is sitting on such large oil resources as the most optimistic s
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Beitrag68/300, 19.08.12, 09:59:38 
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Sat 16:07
Re: Interesting reading

TRINDERM

These articles are good to read as AOI are getting a lot of press. It did/does confuse me slightly that the swedes trade it highly, large volumes, big SK numbers and yet as soon as TSX opens the AOI SS jumps in to line.

Anyhow.......

What the article does not say is that AOI has partnered up with a FTSE 100 company and they have had their best drill, ever. Boring I know that we keep mentioning in but it is a good measure of what has been found. Not only that, but moving to Twiga the results could be even better lower down than at Ngamia 1. Add Marathon wanting to be our partner........ It is not just a few PI's thinking this has legs. Nomura, C Suisse, BoA ML........ Compare the other small oilies that struggle to place, get good farms......

I have not set any sort of price target yet but if twiga comes good and the success is repeated on the numerous other funded drills that are to happen soon......

It all looks good from where I am sat and KH buying $250,000 a week or so ago perhaps suggests he thinks so to.

mt


iii Board
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Beitrag67/300, 20.08.12, 13:20:24 
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Angeblich encouraging Results von Horn. gruebel Na,ja

http://gulfnews.com/business/opinio....-in-east-africa-1.1063627
The oil and gas rush in East Africa


Countries must regulate and be transparent in deals signed with global oil firms

East Africa may not be yet in the reference sources of hydrocarbons, but the finding of oil and gas there in the last few years promises to attract more attention to that region. It is certainly celebrated for the potential it holds for the overall development these resources can bring with them.


The discovery of oil in Uganda in 2006 at an estimated six billion barrels (some say only three million barrels) has raised so much interest in what is previously considered a high risk, very expensive and poor region in hydrocarbons. The Lake Albert oil field is expected to start production soon which may reach 200,000 barrels a day in five years’ time.


The discovery by Tullow Oil was so successful that China’s CNOOC and France’s Total soon farmed in by paying $2.9 billion (Dh10.6 billion), indicating that additional increase in reserves is significant. The resolution of border problems between Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo is most important for the two countries for further exploration. The two countries have a “joint production zone” agreement but they have yet to agree on the delineation of borders.


To move Uganda oil, the country is considering a small refinery in Kampala as well as a pipeline to the port of Mombasa or Lamu on the Indian Ocean. Mombasa’s 60,000 barrels-a-day refinery may become the first buyer of the crude. With South Sudan also considering a pipeline to Kenya, some observers are suggesting the two projects may be integrated to reduce cost.


Article continues below







Naturally, Kenya has attracted oil companies not only because of its ports and strategic location but also because the government is keen not to be left out of the exploration effort. Companies have signed production sharing agreements in 2010 in at least five blocks covering the Turkana Rift Basin where Tullow began drilling its first well in January this year and later reported an important find. Other companies may start drilling early next year after completing a 3D seismic survey.


Encouraging results


Further north in Somali Puntland, two exploration wells are already drilled and the initial results are encouraging. Some production is even promised very shortly. All of Somalia and its offshore may become attractive once the security and political situation normalises there, if it ever does.


But the more significant finds are further south in the deep waters of Mozambique and Tanzania.


This time, natural gas is the prize where Cove Energy reported the discovery of a field off Mozambique containing an estimated 15 to 30 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas. A battle ensued between Shell and Thailand’s state-owned energy company PTT Exploration and Production to buy Cove’s interest at some $2 billion.


Another gas find was made in 2010 and 2011 by Anadarko also offshore Mozambique and probably containing up to 30 tcf in what is now known as Prosperidade field. Eni discovery is said to be very close to that of Anadarko and containing an estimated recoverable reserves of 30 tcf while further drilling may add another 10 tcf. Therefore, the whole of the Prosperidade field is likely to finally have 70 to 100 tcf and the two operators may eventually unify the two sections of the field.


Just across the border in Tanzania, other gas finds were discovered onshore and offshore to the tune of 30 tcf overall. While BG Group and Ophir are working in the Rovuma Delta, Statoil and Exxon Mobil are busy offshore. Statoil says that the estimated 5 tcf of natural gas in Tanzania’s Zafarani field is likely to be revised upward.


Joint projects


The offshore fields of Tanzania and Mozambique are close enough to suggest that joint projects to utilise the gas are a likely option. Because the local demand for gas is limited, the obvious solution is export to Asian markets by liquefying the gas in large and expensive LNG plants. China, India, and Thailand interests are obvious here. Substantial investment is needed in infrastructure of roads, railways, ports and so on if gas development is to proceed unhindered. The Chinese government provided Tanzania with over a billion-dollar loan to construct new infrastructure.


In the heat of the rush for oil and gas development in East Africa, there is a need for regulation and transparency of the agreements signed with international oil companies. Due respect for the environment and local people habitations must take priority in these developments and discussion among countries might yield common approach with the oil companies and reduce the cost of infrastructure.


The Economist puts all this as “Eastern El Dorado” but if economic development in Eastern Africa is to be fuelled by oil and gas development, it is hoped that these countries also pursue balanced development in other sectors.


— The writer is former head of the Energy Studies Department in Opec Secretariat in Vienna.
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Beitrag66/300, 21.08.12, 10:50:30 
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http://www.londonstockexchange.com/....l?announcementId=11304241

Hope the link works. This is an 'RNS' from Range Resources citing the trading halt on Red Emperor and stating "Range wishes to advise that final downhole logging is currently underway but that no results are yet available from the operator, Horn Petroleum Corp. Range will release any results as soon as they become available."
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Beitrag65/300, 21.08.12, 15:59:35 
Antworten mit Zitat
Red Emperor and Range Resources make investors wait on Puntland well

By Editor on 21 August 2012

Speculation has intensified about the likely outcome of the Shabeel North well in Puntland, Somalia, after one of the companies involved in the well, AIM-quoted Red Emperor Resources (LON:RMP), requested a trading halt.

Red Emperor, which is dual listed in Australia, instigated the suspension around 20 minutes after the start of trading in London on Tuesday, which initially caused confusion among investors. That uncertainty was exacerbated some time later when Red Emperor’s partner in Puntland, Range Resources (LON:RRL), issued a statement insisting that while final downhole logging was underway, no results were yet available from the well operator, Horn Petroleum Corp.

http://www.smallcapnews.co.uk/2012/....untland-drilling-results/



Red Emperor and Range each hold 20 percent interests in the Shabeel North well, with Horn controlling the remaining 60 percent. Horn has already drilled the first well (Shabeel-1) in a two well program and began drilling Shabeel North in early June. By late July it had concluded that certain upper sands in the well contained water and the partnership subsequently decided to drill deeper.
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Beitrag64/300, 22.08.12, 08:54:25 
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Africa Oil Corp.
Company Announcement
AFRICA OIL ANNOUNCES SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INDEPENDENT RESOURCE ESTIMATES IN KENYA AND ETHIOPIA
August 22, 2012 (AOI – TSXV) … Africa Oil Corp. (“Africa Oil”, “AOC”, or “the Company”) is pleased to announce that an updated independent assessment of the Company’s contingent and prospective resources on its Kenyan and Ethiopian exploration properties has been completed by Gaffney, Cline & Associates (“Gaffney Cline”, or “GCA”). The independent assessment was carried out in accordance with the standards established by the Canadian Securities Administrators in National Instrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities. The effective date of the report is June 30, 2012.

It should be noted that these estimates do not include the Company’s Puntland (Somalia) oil and gas interests which is available at www.sedar.com under Horn Petroleum Corporation, Africa Oil’s 45% owned subsidiary.

Given the large quantity of prospects and leads in the Company’s portfolio, the following two tables have been prepared for the convenience of readers by Africa Oil. Readers should refer to the tables attached to this News Release, which have been prepared by Gaffney Cline, detailing the contingent and prospective oil resources by prospect and lead with the associated geological chance of success:



http://www.stockhouse.com/News/Cana....asesDetail.aspx?n=8595481


Keith Hill, Africa Oil’s President and Chief Executive Officer, commented: “Gaffney Cline’s independent assessment confirms the enormous resource potential of our enviable East Africa onshore acreage. We are pleased that the investment to date in our aggressive exploration program has yielded these results showing a considerable increase in the prospective resources assigned to a growing number of leads and prospects. In addition the Ngamia-1 oil discovery has resulted in a considerable increase in the geological chance of success assigned to numerous prospects and leads, most notably in the Lokichar sub-basin. We continue to aggressively explore with three seismic crews active and a continuous drilling program that is expected to have three rigs under contract by the end of 2012. We expect the next 18 months to be transformational for the Company as we will continuously drill high impact exploration targets.”



Africa Oil’s holdings include working interests in operated and non-operated Production Sharing Contracts (PSC’s) in Kenya, Ethiopia and Puntland (Somalia) in East Africa. These Blocks contain relatively under explored plays in basins that have proven and productive analogs. Since the effective date (December 30, 2010) of Gaffney Cline’s previous evaluation of prospective resources, highlights of the Company’s exploration activities in Kenya and Ethiopia include:



Drilling the Ngamia-1 well in Block 10BB (Kenya) resulting in an oil discovery. As a result of this discovery, several prospects and leads in the Tertiary rift have been de-risked and the volume of contingent oil resources has increased;
The acquisition of more than 4,300 km of 2D seismic, increasing the number of mapped prospects and leads;
The completion of more than 53,000 km2 (73,000 line-kilometers) of full tensor gravity (“FTG”) surveys. Given the size of the Company’s exploration acreage, FTG has been a useful tool in efficiently generating additional leads and identifying prospective areas to target subsequent 2D seismic programs.
Please refer to the tables below detailing the Company’s contingent and prospective oil resources by prospect and lead as provided by Gaffney Cline effective June 30, 2012.



Africa Oil Corp. is a Canadian oil and gas company with assets in Kenya, Ethiopia and Puntland (Somalia). Africa Oil's East African holdings are within a world-class exploration play fairway with a total gross land package in this prolific region in excess of 300,000 square kilometers. The East African Rift Basin system is one of the last of the great rift basins to be explored. New discoveries have been announced on all sides of Africa Oil's virtually unexplored land position including the Albert Graben oil discoveries in neighboring Uganda. Africa Oil’s recent Ngamia-1 discovery extends the Albert Graben play into Kenya where Africa Oil along with partner Tullow hold a dominant acreage position. Newly acquired seismic and gravity data show robust leads and prospects throughout Africa Oil's project areas. The Company is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange and on First North at NASDAQ OMX-Stockholm under the symbol "AOI".
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Beitrag63/300, 22.08.12, 09:10:52 
Antworten mit Zitat
Posting from "pennyoilking" on stockhouse.com 8/21/2012 10:21:12 AM:

"Merrill Lynch has placed a .29 cent risked value on AOI thru its HRN venture. So should the news from Puntland be negative AOI should only drop about .25 cents a share. Should the news be good then AOI will surge up. Keep in mind too that the major well in Somalia was scheduled to be the next one in Nugaal. These first 2 wells were drilled just to lock in the 2 blocks PSA's.
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Beitrag62/300, 22.08.12, 10:37:55 
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Sweden like the news -

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AOI:SS

Over $9.60 -

http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert/?Amou....5&From=SEK&To=CAD

Volume is significant too.
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Beitrag61/300, 22.08.12, 13:56:25 
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Keith Hill, Africa Oil's President and Chief Executive Officer, commented: "Gaffney Cline's independent assessment confirms the enormous resource potential of our enviable East Africa onshore acreage. We are pleased that the investment to date in our aggressive exploration program has yielded these results showing a considerable increase in the prospective resources assigned to a growing number of leads and prospects. In addition the Ngamia-1 oil discovery has resulted in a considerable increase in the geological chance of success assigned to numerous prospects and leads, most notably in the Lokichar sub-basin. We continue to aggressively explore with three seismic crews active and a continuous drilling program that is expected to have three rigs under contract by the end of 2012. We expect the next 18 months to be transformational for the Company as we will continuously drill high impact exploration targets.

HOLD FOR 1-2 years.. and the stock will double and double again. 18 exciting months ahead.
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