#PUM(696960)
Puma SE
21,97 €
13:25:50-5,13 €
-18,93 %Hoch: 26,59 €
Tief: 21,28 €
- Symbol:
- PUM
- WKN:
- 696960
- ISIN:
- DE0006969603
BofA on Puma SE - Visibility down and risks up. Again.
FY25 guidance to lead to a HSD sales cut / c.30% EBIT cut in consensus. We cut our EPS by up to >35% in the coming years.
This leads us to cut our PO by €12 to €20 and to reiterate our Underperform rating on the stock
Unchanged issues: i) the margin focus is risky when competition intensifies; ii) low capital intensity caps growth potential
Puma (PUM GY) - N (OP), €25 (€50)
Yesterday evening, Puma pre-announced a weak outlook for FY 2025. Puma anticipates ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic challenges in 2025, especially trade disputes and currency volatility. They also refer to a soft performance in the US and in China in Q1 2025 and thus expect currency-adjusted sales to grow low- to mid-single-digit (consensus: 7%, ODDO BHFe: 8%). Puma expects adjusted EBIT of € 520-600m (consensus: € 690m, ODDO BHFe: € 700m). Due to its next level cost efficiency programme, Puma expects to incur onetime costs of up to € 75m in 2025. In return, the company expects to generate additional EBIT of up to € 100m in 2025 compared to 2024. Puma also gave an outlook for Q1 2025: Currency-adjusted sales to be down low-single-digit (consensus and ODDO BHFe: 8%). Due to inventory valuation effects in the previous year, a higher opex run-rate and a different phasing of marketing expenses, adjusted EBIT is projected to be c. € 70m (consensus: € 189m, ODDO BHFe: € 185m). From the release we conclude: 1/ The new adjusted EBIT target for FY 2025 implies downside of 19% for consensus at midpoint and 24% at the lower end. We think that achieving the lower end is more likely as it already requires a clear profit improvement in the coming 3 quarters. 2/ We struggle to understand why earnings are down that much in 2025 and why the operating margin in 2025 (6%) and 2026 (7%) is so far below the mid-term target of 10% despite additional cost savings. We thus also think the 2027 EBIT margin target of 8.5% is too high (7% to 7.5% is more likely). 3/ All in all, a very negative development. We are concerned about further profit warnings and believe the problem is not just volatile markets. We take lower estimates and deteriorating sentiment into account, and downgrade to Hold (was Outperform) with a new TP of € 25 (was € 50) which implies a target P/E 2025 of 15x in line with the fwd multiple seen over the last year and P/E 2026 of 12x.
, stand auch schon öfter auf meiner Gute-Vorsätze-Liste 
