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Mais - China storniert 2 Cargos

06.06.2014 | 12:37 Uhr | Stöver, Stephanie, Kaack Terminhandel
In Chicago fiel der Frontmonat unter 450 ct/bu. An der Matif hielt sich der August-Termin noch über 177 EUR/t. Die Exportzahlen lagen mit 550.700 t am unteren Rand der Erwartungen, überstiegen den 4-Wochen-Durchschnitt jedoch um 39%. Dennoch konnte dies die Kurse nicht nach oben bewegen. China stornierte erneut 2 Lieferungen. Das drückte die ohnehin schon schwache Stimmung am Mais-Markt. Das Wetter ist vielversprechend für das Heranwachsen der Rekordernte. So erwarten einige Analysten eine Aufwärtskorrektur der Maiserträge im kommenden USDA-Report.

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© Stephanie Stöver
 
Gold Sees Quiet Start To Quiet Week
By Kitco News
Sunday June 8, 2014 10:10 PM

(Kitco News) - Gold prices started the week extremely quietly and might not find much direction as no major U.S. data will be released until Thursday.

“The data flow will be relatively light in the coming week with only a sprinkling of economic reports to provide direction to the markets,” said analysts from TD Securities. “The market will cast a wary eye towards the May retail sales report as investors attempt to gauge the tone of consumer spending activity.”

The U.S. Census Bureau will release retail sales Thursday and according to consensus forecasts, economists expect sales to rise about 0.4%.

To start the week, electronic trading of Comex August gold futures opened the Sunday North American evening/Monday Asian session at $1,253 an ounce, just slightly up from Friday’s pit close of $1,252.50 an ounce.

Since the start of the session, prices have traded in a relatively tight range; as of 9:57 p.m. EDT August gold was trading at $1,252.80 an ounce.

Electronic trading of Comex July silver futures opened Sunday evening/Monday morning at $19.020 an ounce, up from Friday’s pit close of $18.991. Silver also traded in a tight and illiquid market since the open. As of 9:57 p.m. EDT, the contract was trading at $19.010 an ounce.

Sean Lusk, director commercial hedging division, Walsh Trading said in a report released Friday that he will be watching equity markets as their recent record highs continue to “drive away” interest in the gold market.

Looking at technical ranges, Lusk said he expects gold to find initial support at $1,242.40 an ounce and resistance at 1260.40.
 
PRECIOUS-Gold steady above $1,250/oz but equities rally curbs demand

Mon Jun 9, 2014 5:49am EDT

* European shares edge higher

* Dollar benefits from rising U.S. Treasury yields

* Bullish bets on gold at lowest since mid-January (Updates throughout, changes dateline from SINGAPORE)

By Clara Denina

LONDON, June 9 (Reuters) - Gold held above $1,250 an ounce in thin Monday volumes, but remained vulnerable to losses as a rally in stocks after reassuring U.S. jobs data curbed the metal's appeal as an alternative investment.

With no major economic data scheduled for Monday and a public holiday in a number of European countries including Germany and France, trading volumes were expected to be thin as markets eyed investment and consumer demand for further cues.

Spot gold edged up 0.2 percent to $1,255.30 an ounce by 0927 GMT. It fell to a four-month low of $1,240.61 early last week, before stabilising.

U.S. gold futures for August delivery gained 0.3 percent to $1,255.60 an ounce.

"We are above the $1,250 level based on last week's news dataflow. Clearly, the ECB easing for the moment is seen as positive," Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said.

However, gold is still in a downtrend and U.S. monetary policy could tighten further, Bhar said.

European markets rose, looking for their 10th straight week of gains after last week's bumper set of easing measures from the European Central Bank. The dollar was up 0.1 percent against a basket of currencies, benefiting from strong U.S. borrowing costs.

Friday data showed that U.S. employment returned to its pre-recession peak in May, with a solid pace of hiring that offered confirmation the economy had snapped back from a winter slump.

After the data, dealers who had bet against gold in the run-up to the announcement, expecting a strong number, rushed to cover positions as the metal held above $1,240 an ounce, traders said.

"I would still want to sell rallies because this rally was based on short-covering and not fresh buying ... if you look at the CFTC positioning, the longs have been cut and that shows that this rally probably doesn't have the power to significantly move prices higher," Bhar said.

Hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish bets in gold futures and options in the week to June 3 to their lowest level since mid-January, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday.

Among other precious metals, platinum gained for a fourth straight session as investors awaited the outcome of wage negotiations in top producer South Africa.

South Africa's AMCU union and major platinum producers were due to meet on Monday for more talks aimed at ending a five-month strike, with the government threatening to pull out of mediation if no deal is agreed.

The union had said last week its wage demand of 12,500 rand ($1,200) per month was "non-negotiable".

Platinum prices rose 0.4 percent to $1,448.24 an ounce.

"The realisation that optimism on wage talks in South Africa was overdone likely prompted longs to rebuild positions and shorts to seek cover," UBS said in a note. "Headline risks abound as negotiations resume today."

Palladium, of which South Africa is the second-biggest producer, stood flat at $840.30 an ounce.
 
WTI Trades Near 3-Day High on U.S. Economy; Brent Rises
By Heesu Lee and Jake Rudnitsky Jun 9, 2014 1:18 PM GMT+0200

West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the highest intraday price in three days amid signs that economic growth is being sustained in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent also rose in London.

Futures climbed as much as 0.7 percent in New York. A Labor Department report showed U.S. employment exceeded the pre-recession peak for the first time. Russia and Ukraine plan another round of natural gas talks today after President Petro Poroshenko was inaugurated June 7 in Kiev. Ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries say they will probably leave their oil-production target unchanged when they meet this week in Vienna.

“The good jobs data from the U.S. at the end of last week are supporting prices,” Christopher Bellew, a senior broker at Jefferies Bache Ltd. in London, said by e-mail. “The key words this week will be Libya, Ukraine and OPEC.”

WTI for July delivery was at $103.29 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 63 cents, at 11:55 a.m. London time. The contract gained 18 cents to $102.66 on June 6. The volume of all futures traded was 18 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day. Prices have advanced 4.9 percent this year.

Brent for July settlement was 57 cents higher at $109.18 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $5.89 to WTI on ICE. The spread closed at $5.95 last week.
U.S. Payrolls

U.S. payrolls expanded by 217,000 in May, extending a 282,000 rise in April, the Labor Department said on June 6. That marked the fourth monthly increase in employment of more than 200,000 for the first time since early 2000. The jobless rate remained at 6.3 percent, the lowest in almost six years.

China’s exports increased by 7 percent in May, more than the median 6.7 percent gain forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists, helping to cushion the world’s second-biggest economy from a deeper slowdown as an unexpected drop in imports highlighted risks to growth.

“There are still concerns over China’s domestic demand,” Will Yun, a commodities analyst at Hyundai Futures Co. in Seoul, said by phone. “Determining whether or not China is recovering is something we’ll need to wait and see.”

The Asian nation will account for about 11 percent of global oil consumption this year, compared with 21 percent for the U.S., according to estimates from the International Energy Agency in Paris.
Ukraine Talks

Bilateral talks between OAO Gazprom and NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy over Ukraine’s gas debts are planned for today in Brussels, before a tripartite meeting with European Union officials, Ukrainian Energy Minister Yuri Prodan said by phone. Agreement has yet to be reached on the gas price or Ukraine’s debt for past supplies, he said.

OPEC will probably maintain its production target at 30 million barrels a day at a meeting in Vienna on June 11. Ministers from Saudi Arabia, Angola and Kuwait said they expect no change, as did 22 of 23 analysts and traders in a separate Bloomberg survey. The 12-member group pumps about 40 percent of the world’s oil.

In Libya, output has fallen to about 10 percent of capacity because of protests at oil fields and strikes at export terminals.

Hedge funds and other money managers reduced net-long positions in WTI by 1.5 percent in the week ended June 3, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said. Bullish bets on Brent crude fell by 7.7 percent in the same period, the first decrease in four weeks, according to data from ICE exchange.
 
Copper Declines as Lower Chinese Imports Stoke Demand Concern
By Agnieszka Troszkiewicz Jun 9, 2014 12:00 PM GMT+0200

Copper touched a one-month low in London after imports of the metal into leading global consumer China slumped, undermining the outlook for demand.

Inbound unwrought-copper shipments fell 16 percent on the month in May, while ore and concentrate imports were the lowest in a year, customs data showed yesterday. Money managers cut bullish bets on New York-traded copper by the most in a month, while the metal is the only “net short” on the London Metal Exchange, according to Marex Spectron Group.

“Imports were hit by a severely negative arb in March and early April, as well as bonded warehouse premiums,” Ivan Szpakowski, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in Shanghai, said in a report today. He predicted “weak” incoming shipments in July and August.

Copper for delivery in three months retreated 0.4 percent to $6,661 a ton by 10:39 a.m. on the LME after reaching $6,636, the lowest since May 7. Copper for delivery in July lost 0.8 percent to $3.028 a pound on the Comex in New York, where fund managers’ net-long position fell 24 percent to a four-week low, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Stockpiles of the metal tracked by exchanges in Shanghai, London and New York slid 47 percent this year to the lowest since October 2008. LME inventories declined for a seventh session to 167,250 tons, data showed today.

Copper also retreated on concern a probe into warehousing at the Chinese port of Qingdao will hit demand to use metal for obtaining credit in the nation. Officials are looking into whether some supplies used as collateral were counted more than once, three people with direct knowledge of the investigation said last week.

“While copper is under pressure due to the Qingdao investigation on warehousing, aluminum is still the star,” Richard Fu, director for Asian commodity trading at Newedge Group SA in London, said by e-mail. LME aluminum for delivery in three months rose 0.8 percent to $1,893 a ton after a fourth straight weekly gain, the longest such run since October.

Zinc reached the highest price since March 5 in London. Lead rose as nickel and tin dropped.
 
El Nino Threatening Monsoon in India to Curb Crop Outlook
By Prabhudatta Mishra and Pratik Parija Jun 9, 2014 1:16 PM GMT+0200

The monsoon rainfall in India, the main source of irrigation for the nation’s 263 million farmers, will be below normal this year as an El Nino emerges, weakening prospects of crops from rice to soybeans and sugar.

Showers in the June-September season will be 93 percent of a 50-year average of 89 centimeters (35 inches), the state-run India Meteorological Department said on its website today. That’s less than the 95 percent of the average predicted in April. Rainfall in July, the wettest month of the monsoon season, may be 93 percent of the average and August may record 96 percent, the forecaster said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is preparing contingency plans to deal with a sub-normal monsoon, while pledging to contain the fastest consumer-price increases among Asia’s biggest economies. A drought in the main growing regions may curb farm output and hamper efforts to revive the country’s economic growth from near the lowest in a decade.

“Out of the two things which the market is closely watching, one is budget and the other is monsoon,” Anubhuti Sahay, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Mumbai, said by phone. “The monsoon is extremely important because in case it turns out to be bad it will direct government’s effort from reviving investment cycle to managing drought.”

India’s consumer-price index increased 8.59 percent in April from a year earlier, compared with a 8.31 percent gain in March, the Central Statistics Office said May 12. The economy grew 4.9 percent in the year ended March 31, after a decade-low expansion of 4.5 percent a year earlier.
Rains Delayed

The onset of the monsoon was delayed this year with rains reaching India’s Kerala state on June 6, compared with the normal date of June 1, according to the weather bureau. Rains, which provide water for 55 percent of the farmland, have been 44 percent below normal since June 1, bureau data show.

To stem inflation, Modi has called for price stabilization funds and measures to prevent hoarding of food, which makes up 50 percent of the consumer price index basket. The outlook for agriculture is clouded by the delayed onset of the monsoon with a 60 percent chance of the occurrence of El Nino, the Reserve Bank of India said in its monetary policy statement on June 3.

A below normal monsoon will influence monetary policy as inflation may accelerate and curb rural demand, Sahay said.

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan left the key repurchase rate unchanged at an 18-month high of 8 percent last week and signaled he would ease policy if inflation slows faster than anticipated. He aims to lower consumer-price gains to 8 percent in January 2015 and 6 percent a year later.

El Nino Impact

Forecasters from the U.S. to the United Nations have warned an El Nino event may happen this year, and ABN Amro Group NV said confirmation could spur support for coffee, sugar and cocoa prices. El Ninos can roil agricultural markets worldwide as farmers contend with drought or too much rain.

Monsoon was 22 percent below average in India during the last El Nino in 2009, according to the weather bureau. The season is crucial for crops from sugar to rice and cotton as more than 50 percent of the nation’s farmland is rain-fed, making monsoons the main source of irrigation.

El Ninos, caused by the periodic warming of the tropical Pacific, occur irregularly every two to seven years and are associated with warmer-than-average years. The last El Nino was from 2009 to 2010, and since then the Pacific has either been in its cooler state, called La Nina, or neutral.

Rains will be 85 percent of the long-period average in the country’s northwest, which includes cotton, rice and sugar cane growing states of Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh. Monsoon will be 99 percent of the average in the northeastern region and 94 percent in central India, the top cotton and soybeans growing region, Singh said.

Southern states of Karnataka, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, which are the main producers of coffee, rice and rubber, may get 93 percent of the 50-year average rain, the bureau said.
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=1484580#1484580 schrieb:
Klewe schrieb am 08.06.2014, 19:42 Uhr[/url]"]08.06.2014 07:00 | Redaktion
Verspäteter Monsun könnte Erholung der indischen Goldverkäufe bedrohen

Nachdem die Goldpreise in Indien aufgrund des schwachen Trends am globalen Markt auf ein 11-Monatstief gesunken sind, hätten die Kunden einem Anfang der Woche auf Mineweb erschienenen Bericht zufolge die Geschäfte geradezu gestürmt. Zudem hat die indische Regierung die Zollwerte für Gold und Silber in Anbetracht der schwachen Edelmetallpreise deutlich gesenkt - von 424 $ je 10 g auf 408 je 10 g (Gold) bzw. von 650 $ je 1 kg auf 617 $ je 1 kg (Silber). Nach den Verschärfungen der Importbestimmung seien die gesamten Gold- und Silberimporte des Landes um 40% gesunken, doch angesichts der niedrigen Preise hätten Juweliere nun wieder allen Grund zur Freude.

Neben der Senkung der Zollwerte kämen weitere Anreize von Goldkrediten und einer erhöhten Anzahl von Banken, welche das Edelmetall importieren dürfen. So seien die Preise gesunken, nachdem die Reserve Bank of India die Goldimportbeschränkungen durch die Importerlaubnisse für ausgewählte Handelshäuser erleichtert hätte. Der Goldaufschlag sei von 110 $ je Unze auf nur noch 35 $ je Unze gefallen. Alles in allem wären die Aussichten positiv und die Gesamtnachfrage könne damit zwischen 5 und 7% gegenüber dem Vorjahr steigen.

Allerdings könne all dies durch einen schwachen Monsun zunichte gemacht werden und den Goldpreis sogar negativ beeinflussen. Ein guter Monsun würde sich positiv auf die Ernten auswirken, was wiederum höhere Einkommen der Bauern und somit eine höhere Goldnachfrage zur Folge hätte, da etwa 60% der indischen Goldkäufe aus ländlichen Gebieten mit viel Landwirtschaft stammen würden. Damit habe die Monsunzeit direkten Einfluss auf die Goldnachfrage und somit auf die Preise.

Allerdings werde der Monsun dieses Jahr UBS zufolge nicht nur zehn Tage später eintreffen, sondern auch zusammen mit einer Warmfront, die sich negativ auf Ernten und somit Konsumentenstimmung auswirken könne. So habe die Monsunregenrate 2009, als ebenfalls eine Warmfront mit einherging, 22% unter dem Durchschnitt gelegen und infolge dessen sei die indische Goldnachfrage gegenüber dem Vorjahr um 70% gesunken. Allerdings sei das ungünstige Wetter damals mit einem deutlichen Anstieg der Mindestabnahmepreise von Seiten der Regierung einhergegangen, was die Nahrungsmittelinflation zusätzlich erhöht habe.

Da dies bislang nicht der Fall sei und die Getreidevorräte 2014 zudem dank Investitionen und Modernisierungen über dem Durchschnitt liegen würden, könne das ungünstige Wetter in diesem Jahr keinen so extremen Effekt auf die Goldnachfrage haben. © Redaktion GoldSeiten.de
Zum Vergrößern anklicken....
 
MKS: Gold Starts New Week Still Near $1,250 After ECB, Payrolls

Monday June 7, 2014 8:00 AM

Gold remains largely unaffected by two highly anticipated news events from late last week – lower interest rates from the European Central Bank and a 217,000 rise in U.S. May nonfarm payrolls, says MKS (Switzerland) SA. The metal continues to hover around the $1,250-an-ounce region. ”Gold is still holding onto the $1,240 support for now and with positioning still skewed to the short side and an absence of as much market-moving data this week, we may see some more shorts exiting positions and the gold drift higher as a result,” MKS says. Gold volatility has eased, the firm says. “Silver is treading water above $19, moving as high as $19.20 last Friday. The set-up for the white metal is similar to gold; technically it is looking weak but it is perhaps a little overextended to the short side, which could see it edge higher this week.” By Allen Sykora of Kitco News;

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-06-09/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets-June-09.html
 
Uncertain Consolidation

Monday June 09, 2014 08:27

The metals have shown a small amount of resilience opening the week, holding last Thursday's short covering rally. Gold will need to take out the $1,262 level to scare the bears. A fill trade to the $1,277 level is possible, but without fresh "news" the market, both technically and fundamentally from a physical demand perspective, continues to look heavy. I'm still favoring the PGM group. By Peter Hug
 
Where are the Stops? Monday, June 9: Gold and Silver

Monday June 09, 2014 08:36

August Gold Buy Stops Sell Stops
$1,258.20 $1,251.60
**$1,268.50 $1,250.00
$1,273.00 **$1,240.20
$1,278.00 $1,235.00
July Silver Buy Stops Sell Stops
$19.20 $18.985
$19.40 **$18.80
**$19.50 $18.75
$19.75 $18.615
 
A.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Firmer on Short Covering, Bargain Hunting

Monday June 9, 2014 8:17 AM

(Kitco News) - Gold prices are modestly higher in early dealings Monday, on a short-covering bounce and some perceived bargain hunting after recent selling pressure. August Comex gold was last up $3.70 at $1,256.20 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $2.80 at $1,255.50. July Comex silver last traded up $0.159 at $19.15 an ounce.

U.S. stock indexes are slightly lower in early trading, on profit taking from recent gains.
Asian and European stock markets were firmer overnight, following the lead of the U.S. stock market Friday. The European stock market also saw lingering benefits from last week’s European Central Bank meeting that saw the ECB embark on another round of monetary policy stimulus.

A main theme in the market place continues to be the bull market runs in U.S. and other major world stock markets. With many of the leading world stock indexes at or near record or multi-year highs, other asset classes like raw commodities, including gold and silver, have seen trader and investor buying interest limited. With extremely low interest rates and scant worries about inflationary price pressures at present, “paper” assets like stocks and bonds have fared better, compared to “hard” assets that tend to see better demand during times of inflation or keener geopolitical uncertainty.

In other overnight news, economic data from China showed Chinese imports decreased by 1.6% in May versus April. A 6% rise in imports was forecast.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (The Russia-Ukraine crisis has died down in the eyes of the market place, while the rest of the world is also quiet on the geopolitics front.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,255.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,247.50.

Technically, August gold futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A 10-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,268.50. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,240.20. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,258.20 and then at $1,268.50. First support is seen at $1,250.00 and then at $1,240.20.

July silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $19.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $18.615. First resistance is seen at $19.25 and then at $19.40. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $18.985 and then at $18.75.
 
09.06.2014 06:02 | Redaktion
Handel an Dubais Goldbörse steigt um ein Viertel auf über 1 Mio. Kontrakte

Im Mai verzeichnete das Handelsvolumen an der Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) ein solides Wachstum von 24% gegenüber dem Vormonat, berichtete BullionStreet am Donnerstag. Damit habe sich der Handel auf insgesamt 1.017.991 Kontrakte im Wert von 31,5 Mrd. USD erhöht.

Die wichtigste Rolle beim Volumenwachstum habe dabei das Währungssegment gespielt, dass mit 923.491 Kontrakten ein Monatswachstum von 22% verzeichnet habe. Besonders erwähnenswert sei die Zunahme beim Futureshandel für die indische Rupie, welcher gegenüber dem Vormonat um 25% gestiegen sei. Auch das Handelsvolumen für SENSEX-Futures (Aktienindex Mumbai) sei um bemerkenswerte 206% angestiegen und habe Anfang Mai das höchste tägliche Handelsvolumen überhaupt verzeichnet. Der Handel mit Goldfutures sei im Monatsvergleich um 24% gestiegen und im Jahresvergleich um 9%.

Ein Vorsitzender der Dubaier Börse sehe das Wachstum in diesen speziellen Segmenten als deutliches Zeichen, dass sich Marktteilnehmer zunehmend gegen unvorhersehbare Kursbewegungen absichern wöllten. © Redaktion GoldSeiten.de
 
09.06.2014 15:14 | Redaktion
Falsche Goldbarren: Statt einer Tonne Gold nur Metallschrott :kichern:

Wie die "South China Morning Post" (Link) berichtete, stellte sich das vom chinesischen Geschäftsmann Zhao Jingjun aus Ghana importierte Gold als Fälschung heraus. Zhao erwarb ursprünglich 998 Kilo Gold für umgerechnet 270 Mio. Hong Kong Dollar.

Das in 14 Kisten verpackte Gold, das Zhao Mitte April in Ghana gekauft hatte, wurde von seinem Personal begleitet und mittels Charter-Flugzeug nach Hong Kong geflogen. Bevor es ins Flugzeug verladen wurde, sei die Lieferung, so ein Mitarbeiter von Zhao, in Ordnung gewesen. Der Mitarbeiter soll Hong Kong mittlerweile verlassen haben.

Nach Angaben der SCMC öffnete Zhao 5 Boxen in Gegenwart seines Abnehmers in Hong Kong, um festzustellen, dass die Barren gegen (unedle) Metallbarren ausgewechselt wurden. Wie sich der Fall jetzt darstellt, war das Gold schon vor dem Flug ausgetauscht worden.


Auch Zerohedge hat die Story aufgegriffen und zeigt in seinem Artikel mit Wolfram gefüllte Fälschungen von Goldbarren, wenngleich bei dem oben erwähnten Fall solche Barren wohl nicht zum Einsatz kamen.

gs5395b2ea46ef1.jpg

Quelle: Zerohedge.com


gs5395b35f81e33.jpg

Quelle: Zerohedge.com
© Redaktion GoldSeiten.de
 
Natural Gas Slips From One-Month High on Milder U.S. Weather
By Naureen S. Malik Jun 9, 2014 4:58 PM GMT+0200

Natural gas futures slipped from a one-month high in New York as cooler weather in the central U.S. limited demand for the power-plant fuel.

Gas fell as much as 1.3 percent. MDA Weather Services predicted below-normal temperatures from the Midwest to Texas over the next five days, with unusually warm readings on the East and West coasts. Gas inventories gains topped the five-year average for the past seven weeks during a seasonal demand lull.

“It’s a cooler pattern emerging of very little cooling demand in the midcontinent,” said Teri Viswanath, director of commodities strategy at BNP Paribas SA in New York. “A broad swath of the U.S. is going to have very light demand this week and possibly into next week.”

Natural gas for July delivery fell 4.3 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $4.657 per million British thermal units at 10:36 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange after touching $4.743, the highest intraday price since May 8. Volume for all futures traded was 33 percent below the 100-day average. Gas is up 10 percent this year.

Higher-than-average temperatures will spread across most of the East Coast into Texas and California from June 14 through June 18, said MDA in Gaithersburg, Maryland. The warmth will stay in Texas, the West Coast and around the Great Lakes the following five days, with seasonal readings elsewhere.

Dallas’s high temperature tomorrow will be 84 degrees Fahrenheit (29 Celsius), 7 below normal, and then climb two weeks later to 100, 7 above average, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.

Stronger Demand

Power plants account for 31 percent of gas consumption, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm.

Rising temperatures will boost demand for natural gas in mid-June, which “could have a negative impact on the weekly injections” of gas into storage, Dominick Chirichella, senior partner at the Energy Management Institute in New York, said in a note to clients today.

A widening premium for gas versus year-earlier levels suggests “the industry seems less relaxed that the recent pattern of above-normal injections over the last several weeks will continue throughout the season,” he said. Gas futures are up 22 percent from a year ago, rebounding after the premium had narrowed to 6.7 percent on May 21.

U.S. inventories probably expanded by 114 billion cubic feet last week, Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures in New York, wrote in note to clients today. Chirichella’s projection is for an increase of 109 billion. The five-year average for the period is 88 billion.

Supply Report

Stockpiles totaled 1.499 trillion cubic feet in the seven days ended May 30, the lowest level for the time of the year since 2003, EIA data show. Supplies were 37 percent below the five-year average and 33 percent lower than year-earlier levels.

Enbridge Inc.’s Manta Ray gas pipeline lifted a force majeure at the Sea Robin interconnection and said delivery nominations will resume today, according to a website notice. Volumes were halted after the company yesterday reported “operational issues” at the Sea Robin ST 292 deliver meter.

Manta Ray, which has 800 million cubic feet of capacity, gathers gas from the Gulf of Mexico, while Energy Transfer Partners LP’s Sea Robin pipeline system delivers offshore supplies to processing plants and markets in in Louisiana.
 
Continental Hits More High Gold Grades At Buritica

Monday June 9, 2014 10:21 AM

Continental Gold Ltd. (TSX:CNL) intersected high grades of gold at its Buritica project, located in Antioquia, Colombia, releasing 27 drill-hole results from the Yaragua vein. Highlights include 97.8 grams per ton gold and 238.0 g/t silver over 6.9 meters, the company says. “I am most pleased that our 60,000-meter drill program for 2014 is yielding robust precious metal intercepts that for the most part, either correlate well to - or are better than - the related grades projected in specific areas of our latest mineral resource estimate,” says Ari Sussman, chief executive officer of Continental. An updated resource estimate released in May pegs Buritica’s measured and indicated gold equivalent ounces at 2.97 million ounces and inferred gold equivalent ounces at 4.4 gold equivalent ounces, the company says. By Alex Létourneau of Kitco News
 
Fund Managers Cut Overall Exposure To Precious Metals, Go Short Silver - CFTC Data

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News
Monday June 9, 2014 11:40 AM

(Kitco News) - Another price drop for most precious metals encouraged large speculators to continue reducing their net-long positions across the board in precious metals futures and options positions on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange and Nymex.

Fund managers cut bullish exposure to gold and the platinum group metals in disaggregated and legacy weekly commitments of traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while turning net-short silver for both reports. In copper they cut bullish positions in the disaggregated report and added to bearish trades in the legacy report. The data is as of June 3.

Except for palladium, metals prices fell during the time period covered by the latest CFTC report. Comex August gold fell $21.20 to $1,244.50 an ounce. July silver fell by 30.40 cents to $18.763. July platinum slid by $28.80 to $1,433.50 an ounce, while June palladium rose $5.15 to $836.70. Comex July copper fell 4.05 cents to $3.1370 a pound. After the reporting period closed, precious metals prices rebounded slightly, but copper prices plunged after news reports of a financial probe at copper and aluminum warehouses in Qingdao, China.

In gold, managed-money traders cut 847 gross longs and added 16,482 gross shorts, lowering their net-long position to 51,064 contracts, the smallest since Jan. 21. This was the second week of a sizable build in gross short positions for fund managers. Producers’ net-short position fell again as they added gross longs and cut gross short positions. Swap dealers also saw their net-short position drop for the second week as they cut a large number of gross shorts and added longs.

The non-commercials action was similar in the gold legacy report as they also lowered their net-long position to the smallest since Jan. 21. They cut 1,527 gross long contracts and added 14,287 gross shorts. They are now net-long 76,895 contracts. Commercials are net-short and cut that position by cutting gross shorts and adding gross longs.
“Gold specs (speculators) continued to build short side positions with pressure mounting to the downside as U.S. economic data continues to look strong,” said TD Securities.

Analysts at Citi Research said the CFTC data show the fall in gold’s open interest and price during the reporting period was not just funds liquidating long positions, but it was also funds establishing new short trades.

Yet, the Citi analysts pointed out, funds have scaled back positioning on both sides in gold. “Given the 15% decline in combined OI (open interest) since mid-March and a very tight gold trading band in 2Q until the recent break lower, it is no surprise that gold positioning in affinity to gold price, lack a clear direction,” they said.

Managed-money accounts added to their net-short silver position by adding 680 gross longs and 4,286 gross shorts. Their net-short stands at 10,602 contracts, the third week they have been net short. This is the largest net-short position for the disaggregated report since the CFTC started the calculation in September 2009. Producers decreased their net-short position when they cut more gross shorts than gross longs. Swap dealers increased their net-long position by adding gross longs and cutting gross shorts.

TDS noted the funds’ move to a record net-short position came “with prices moving down to critical lows.”

Non-commercials turned net short in the silver legacy report for the first time since at least 2007. They are net short 2,324 contracts and arrived to this position as funds added 1,220 gross longs versus adding 5,949 gross shorts. Commercials are net-short and reduced that position by adding gross longs and cutting gross shorts.

Managed-money accounts in platinum trimmed their net-long position for the second week, cutting it to 37,922 contracts. Gross longs fell 668 contracts and gross shorts fell 394 contracts. Non-commercials in platinum also reduced their net-long position, for a second week in a row in the legacy report, to 45,753 contracts, having cut 1,295 gross longs and 350 gross shorts.

“Platinum prices were dragged down by negative precious metals sentiment causing further movement by specs out of long positions, but they cut shorts too,” TDS said.

Large speculators’ net-long palladium holdings fell in the disaggregated report, dropping to 21,649 contracts. They added 447 gross longs and 613 gross shorts. The palladium legacy report saw non-commercials add 503 gross longs and 693 gross shorts, lowering their net-long to 23,992 contracts.

Managed-money accounts’ net-long copper position also fell. They cut 4,758 gross longs and added 317 gross shorts. They are net-long 16,240 contracts. In the legacy report, funds raised their net-short position to 9,545 contracts, having cut 4,674 gross longs and added 718 gross shorts.

“Emerging concern over the impact of ongoing investigations by Chinese authorities into the use of various commodities stored in Dagang Harbor in Qingdao for collateralized financing, of which copper plays a prominent role, prompted money managers to reduce net long copper positions in the week ending June 3rd, “ Citi said.

For further information, see the CFTC’s website. By Debbie Carlson
 
Gold Seen Rising Amid Drop in European Confidence
By Debarati Roy and Nicholas Larkin Jun 9, 2014 6:13 PM GMT+0200

Gold futures were seen rising for the second time in three sessions as lower investor confidence in Europe boosted demand for the precious metal as a haven.

German investor optimism for the euro zone in June fell to 8.5, trailing the 13.3 estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and May’s 12.8 reading, according to Sentix in Limburg, Germany. The region’s 18-nation common currency dropped against 13 of its 16 major counterparts.

Gold gained 6.8 percent in the first quarter on concern that global economic growth was stalling. The metal slid 28 percent last year on expectations that the Federal Reserve would lower the pace of bond purchase and as equities surged. The Fed has made four straight $10 billion cuts.

“Worries about Europe are bringing in some safe-haven buying,” Fain Shaffer, the president of Infinity Trading Corp. in Indianapolis, said in a telephone interview. Prices will “remain range-bound as the rally in the equity market will continue to overshadow everything else.”

Gold futures for August delivery added 0.1 percent to $1,253.50 an ounce at 11:33 a.m. on the Comex in New York. On June 3, prices fell to a four-month low of $1,240.20.

Trading was 62 percent below the average for the past 100 days for this time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bullion’s 60-day historical volatility fell to the lowest since April 2013.

Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products fell 2.1 metric tons to 1,715.7 tons on June 6, the lowest since October 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Silver Shorts

In a bid to spur economic growth and fight deflation, the European Central Bank on June 5 became the first major central bank to take one of its main rates negative.

Silver futures for July delivery rose 0.9 percent to $19.165 an ounce on the Comex.

Short holdings, or bets on a price drop, climbed to the highest since data begins in June 2006, the latest U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for July fell 0.5 percent to $1,445.20 an ounce. Palladium futures for September delivery slipped 0.4 percent to $841.05 an ounce. The metal reached $846.40, matching the price on June 6 that was the highest since Aug. 1, 2011.

Mineworkers have been on strike since January in South Africa, the largest platinum producer. Minister of Mineral Resources Ngoako Ramatlhodi said today would be the last government-led meeting to resolve the impasse, as producers and the dominant union are nearing an end to negotiations.

“Although palladium’s fundamentals remain very attractive, overextended positioning suggests a short-term pullback once a resolution in South Africa is reached could be quite violent,” UBS AG analysts wrote in a report today. “We would be buyers of those corrections.”
 
Triland: ‘Indecision Looms On Both Sides’ Of Gold Market

Monday June 9, 2014 1:27 PM

There seems to be a certain amount of caution in the gold market by bulls and bears alike, says Triland Metals. The most-active Comex August futures barely moved Monday with a range of less than $6 an ounce as pit trading was winding down. “The market seems to be finding it difficult to find a driver, which is perhaps symptomatic of the year ahead; indecision looms on both sides of the market and short-term gains are given up very quickly in either direction,” Triland says. “Inflation/deflation remains the key focus for long-term investors.” By Allen Sykora of Kitco News
 
P.M. Kitco Roundup: Gold Slightly Higher in Lackluster Trading; Mild Short Covering Featured

Monday June 9, 2014 2:02 PM

(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session slightly up Monday, on a tepid short-covering bounce and a bit of perceived bargain hunting after recent selling pressure. August Comex gold was last up $1.60 at $1,254.10 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $1.70 at $1,254.50. July Comex silver last traded up $0.084 at $19.075 an ounce.

It was another listless trading day Monday. With no major geopolitical events making news headlines, and no major economic data out Monday, the gold and silver markets were quiet.

Higher crude oil prices were a bullish “outside market” for the precious metals Monday, but a higher U.S. dollar index was a bearish outside market as an offset.

A main theme in the market place continues to be the bull market runs in U.S. and other major world stock markets. With many of the leading world stock indexes at or near record or multi-year highs, other asset classes like raw commodities, including gold and silver, have seen trader and investor buying interest limited. With extremely low interest rates and scant worries about inflationary price pressures at present, “paper” assets like stocks and bonds have fared better, compared to “hard” assets that tend to see better demand during times of inflation or keener geopolitical uncertainty.

The London P.M. gold fix was $1,253.50 versus the previous A.M. fixing of $1,255.00.

Technically, August gold futures prices closed near mid-range in quieter trading Monday. Gold market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls have gained a bit of upside momentum recently but need to show more power soon to suggest a near-term low is in place. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,268.50. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,240.20. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,258.20 and then at $1,268.50. First support is seen at $1,250.00 and then at last week’s low of $1,240.20. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0

July silver futures prices closed near mid-range Monday. Short covering was featured. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $19.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $18.615. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $19.20 and then at $19.40. Next support is seen at Monday’s low of $18.985 and then at $18.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

July N.Y. copper closed down 85 points at 304.25 cents Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a four-week low early on. A scandal in the Chinese copper market has hit prices to the downside recently. Copper bears now have the level near-term advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 312.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 300.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 305.95 cents and 308.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 301.85 cents and then at 300.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
 
Platinum Companies Assess Options as Latest Talks Fail
By Andre Janse van Vuuren and Tshepiso Mokhema Jun 10, 2014 4:15 AM GMT+0200

The world’s largest platinum producers said they will consider what steps they can take to end a 20-week pay strike after government-brokered talks with the union leading the walkout ended in failure.

Negotiations overseen by Minister of Mineral Resources Ngoako Ramatlhodi with the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union “have been dissolved without an outcome,” Anglo American Platinum Ltd. (AMS), Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. (IMP) and Lonmin Plc (LMI) said in a joint statement yesterday.

“We’ll have to analyze our options” on how next to respond to the strike, Johan Theron, a spokesman for second-biggest producer Impala, said by phone. “That won’t take long - - probably a day or two.”

The AMCU has led the strike of more than 70,000 mineworkers since Jan. 23, asking for wages of the lowest paid underground employees to be more than doubled to 12,500 rand ($1,175) a month by 2017. The companies offered increases of as much as 10 percent. The talks that ended yesterday were to be the last led by the government, according to Ramatlhodi.

“AMCU has made many concessions to try end the impasse,” union President Joseph Mathunjwa told reporters in Pretoria. “The employers offered nothing different to what was offered before.” The AMCU will meet with members starting today to get views on how to respond to the talks outcome, he said.

Repeated attempts have failed to engineer a breakthrough in the dispute that has idled 60 percent of output in the largest platinum-producing country. Negotiations between the sides earlier crumbled under meditation by the Commission for Conciliation, Mediation and Arbitration.
Judge Intervenes

Later bilateral meetings ended in the companies breaking off discussions and putting a pay offer directly to employees, a move that the union sought to block in unsuccessful legal action. A labor court judge, Hilary Rabkin-Naicker, also took the unusual step of mediating company-union talks.

The process started by Rabkin-Naicker remains in place and could still lead to a settlement in future, Mathunjwa said.

Ramatlhodi will comment on the talks at a briefing in Pretoria today, his ministry said in an e-mailed statement.

Platinum pared losses after the talks ended and was little changed at $1,452.44 an ounce by 10 a.m. in Singapore.

The companies said in a statement that they have forfeited earnings of 22 billion rand and employees have lost about 9.6 billion rand in wages since the strike began.
 
El Nino Threatening Monsoon in India to Curb Crop Outlook
By Prabhudatta Mishra and Pratik Parija Jun 10, 2014 3:44 AM GMT+0200

Monsoon rainfall in India, the main source of irrigation for the nation’s 263 million farmers, will be below normal this year as El Nino emerges, weakening prospects for crops from rice to soybeans and sugar and potentially boosting inflation.

Showers in the June-September season will be 93 percent of a 50-year average of 89 centimeters (35 inches), the state-run India Meteorological Department said on its website yesterday. That’s less than 95 percent of the average predicted in April. Rainfall in July, the wettest month of the monsoon season, may be 93 percent of the average and August may total 96 percent, the forecaster said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is preparing contingency plans to deal with a sub-normal monsoon, while pledging to contain the fastest consumer-price increases among Asia’s biggest economies. A drought in the main growing regions may curb farm output and hamper efforts to revive the country’s economic growth from near the lowest in a decade.

“Out of the two things which the market is closely watching, one is budget and the other is monsoon,” Anubhuti Sahay, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Mumbai, said by phone. “The monsoon is extremely important because in case it turns out to be bad it will direct the government’s effort from reviving investment cycle to managing drought.”

India’s consumer-price index increased 8.59 percent in April from a year earlier, compared with a 8.31 percent gain in March, the Central Statistics Office said May 12. The economy grew 4.7 percent in the year ended March 31, after a decade-low expansion of 4.5 percent a year earlier.
Rains Delayed

The onset of the monsoon was delayed this year with rains reaching India’s Kerala state on June 6, compared with the normal date of June 1, according to the weather bureau. Rains, which provide water for 55 percent of the farmland, have been 44 percent below normal since June 1, bureau data show.

“Food grains output may fall by at least 10 percent as major rice growing areas of the country in the northwest may get less rains,” said Indranil Mukherjee, an analyst with Religare Commodities Ltd. in New Delhi. “Farmers will not go for early sowing, which will impact yield of many crops. The latest forecast may increase prices of many commodities.”

India is the world’s second-biggest producer of rice, sugar and wheat and meets more than 50 percent of cooking oil demand through imports.
Food Costs

Lower production may stall a decline in global food costs. A United Nations’ gauge of world prices fell for a second month in May aided by rising grain inventories. Rough-rice futures in Chicago capped on June 6 the longest run of weekly losses since 2008, while wheat futures dropped on the same day to their lowest level in three months.

To stem inflation, Modi has called for price stabilization funds and measures to prevent hoarding of food, which makes up 50 percent of the consumer price index basket. The outlook for agriculture is clouded by the delayed onset of the monsoon with a 60 percent chance of the occurrence of El Nino, the Reserve Bank of India said in its monetary policy statement on June 3.

A below-normal monsoon will influence monetary policy as inflation may accelerate and curb rural demand, Sahay said.

Forecasters from the U.S. to the United Nations have warned an El Nino event may happen this year, and ABN Amro Group NV said confirmation could spur support for coffee, sugar and cocoa prices. El Ninos can roil agricultural markets worldwide as farmers contend with drought or too much rain.
El Nino Impact

India received normal or more-than-normal rains during only three El Nino years out of the past 10 occurrences, while the remaining were drought years, according to data from the meteorological department. Monsoon rainfall was the least in almost four decades in 2009, when El Nino occurred last, data show. Rice and oilseed harvests fell 10 percent, Agriculture Ministry data show.

El Ninos, caused by the periodic warming of the tropical Pacific, occur irregularly every two to seven years and are associated with warmer-than-average years. The last El Nino was from 2009 to 2010, and since then the Pacific has either been in its cooler state, called La Nina, or neutral.

Rains will be 85 percent of the long-period average in the country’s northwest, which includes cotton, rice and sugar cane growing states of Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh. Monsoon will be 99 percent of the average in the northeastern region and 94 percent in central India, the top cotton and soybeans growing region, Singh said.

Southern states of Karnataka, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, which are the main producers of coffee, rice and rubber, may get 93 percent of the 50-year average rain, the bureau said.
 
GOLD UND ROHÖL
Gold: Bodenbildung geht weiter

Die anhaltend freundliche Tendenz an den internationalen Aktienmärkten hält das Interesse an Investments in Gold in Grenzen.

von Jörg Bernhard

Dies lässt sich unter anderem an der gestrigen Umsatzentwicklung an der Shanghai Gold Exchange ablesen. Mit 11.075 kg lag der Wert unter dem durchschnittlichen Tagesumsatz der vorherigen Woche. Nachdem das gelbe Edelmetall im Mai mit 3,3 Prozent den höchsten Monatsverlust in diesem Jahr hinnehmen musste, versucht es sich derzeit an einer Bodenbildung. Aus charttechnischer Sicht hat sich damit im Bereich von 1.240 Dollar eine markante Unterstützungszone gebildet, die es zu verteidigen gilt. Anfang Februar setzte der Goldpreis genau hier zu einer markanten Kursrally an, die nach weniger als zwei Monaten zu einem neuen Jahreshoch von 1.390 Dollar führte.
Am Dienstagvormittag präsentierte sich der Goldpreis mit stabilen Notierungen. Bis gegen 7.15 Uhr (MESZ) verteuerte sich der am aktivsten gehandelte Future auf Gold (August) um 0,80 auf 1.254,70 Dollar pro Feinunze.

Rohöl: Sinkende Lagermengen erwartet

Nach einem ausgesprochen freundlichen Wochenauftakt zeigt sich der Ölpreis auf dem erhöhten Niveau stabil. Nach Börsenschluss wird das American Petroleum Institute seinen Wochenbericht zur Lage am Rohölmarkt veröffentlichen, am Mittwochnachmittag folgt dann noch der offizielle Bericht der US-Energiebehörde EIA. Laut einer Bloomberg-Umfrage unter Analysten sollen sich die gelagerten Ölmengen um 1,5 Millionen Barrel reduziert haben. Keine Änderung der Förderquoten erwarten die Marktakteure vom morgigen OPEC-Treffen in Wien. Derzeit liegen diese bei 30 Millionen Barrel pro Tag. Aus charttechnischer Sicht bewegt sich bei der US-Sorte WTI der Timingindikator RSI derzeit in Richtung 70 Prozent. Ab diesem Niveau gilt ein Markt als überkauft und die Wahrscheinlichkeit für eine technische Korrektur als relativ hoch.
Am Dienstagvormittag präsentierte sich der Ölpreis mit anziehenden Notierungen. Bis gegen 7.15 Uhr (MESZ) verteuerte sich der nächstfällige WTI-Kontrakt um 0,40 auf 104,81 Dollar, während sein Pendant auf Brent um 0,19 auf 110,18 Dollar anzog
 
AUFTRIEB DURCH KONJUNKTUR
Ölpreise legen weiter zu

Die Ölpreise haben am Dienstag ihre Gewinne vom Wochenbeginn ausgebaut. Händler nannten zuletzt robuste Konjunkturdaten als Grund.

Am Morgen kostete ein Barrel (159 Liter) der Nordseesorte Brent zur Lieferung im Juli 110,13 US-Dollar. Das waren 14 Cent mehr als am Montag. Der Preis für ein Barrel der amerikanischen Sorte WTI stieg um 31 Cent auf 104,72 Dollar.

In den vergangenen Tagen hatten Konjunkturdaten aus den drei weltgrößten Volkswirtschaften USA, China und Japan Hoffnungen auf eine schwungvollere globale Konjunktur genährt. Die Aussicht auf eine höhere Nachfrage bescherte den Ölpreisen spürbaren Auftrieb. Am morgigen Mittwoch trifft sich in Wien die Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder (Opec), um über ihre offizielle Fördermenge zu beraten. Es wird nicht mit einer Änderung gerechnet./bgf/fbr
 
Soybean Farmers See Rally Ending on Record U.S. Harvest
By Jeff Wilson Jun 10, 2014 8:43 AM GMT+0200

Minnesota farmer Bob Worth has sold most of his soybeans on bets the biggest rally in five years is about to end.

With futures up as much as 19 percent this year, Worth unloaded 75 percent of the crop he is growing on 1,100 of his 2,300 acres that won’t be collected until September and locked in prices for half his 2015 harvest, 15 months from now.

“We sold it when it was profitable because we don’t know how low it may go,” the 61-year-old farmer said by telephone from Lake Benton, Minnesota.

Production in the U.S., the world’s largest grower, will jump 10 percent this year to an all-time high of 3.631 billion bushels, and inventories before the 2015 harvest will be double a year earlier, a Bloomberg survey of 25 analysts showed. Macquarie Group Ltd. said soybeans may drop 14 percent to $10.50 a bushel, cutting feed costs for cattle, hog and poultry producers that are boosting output because of high meat prices.

“It’s a major shift to excessive supplies,” said Bill Gary, the president of Commodity Information Systems Inc. in Oklahoma City, who has worked in grain markets since 1960 and expects prices to drop below $10 during the harvest. “The rate of soybean usage is starting to level off, and production is ramping up. We will have too much.”
Planting Gain

Planting of soybeans expanded this year as a slump in corn prices encouraged farmers to switch crops. Demand also surged for soy-based livestock feed, particularly from Chinese hog producers, which will leave U.S. inventories on Sept. 1 at 127 million bushels, or 3.8 percent of domestic use and exports, the lowest since before 1965, the Bloomberg survey showed. Once the 2014 crop is collected, stockpiles before the 2015 harvest will jump to 319 million, according to the survey.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will update its estimates of supply and demand tomorrow at noon in Washington.

Soybean futures for July delivery are up 15 percent this year to $14.5625 on the Chicago Board of Trade, the most to start a year since 2009, and July soybean meal gained 20 percent to $481.30 per 2,000 pounds. Over the same period, the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities rose 2.9 percent, the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities advanced 4.6 percent, and the Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index is up 2.7 percent.

Speculators are becoming less bullish on soybeans, cutting their net-long positions to 104,150 futures and options contracts, down more than half from 208,493 on March 4, government data show. Short positions, or bets on lower prices, are the highest since August, and futures for November delivery, after the harvest, traded at $12.2425, a discount to the July contract of $2.3275, almost double what it was Jan. 2.
Record Crops

Cheaper soybeans will help livestock producers already benefiting from corn prices that are about 19 percent lower than a year ago. Most animals are fed a mix of both crops until they are large enough to be slaughtered, and U.S. farmers are expected to produce a record corn crop for a second straight year, to 13.94 billion bushels, the Bloomberg survey showed.

Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (CALM), the largest U.S. producer of shell eggs and a supplier to Wal-Mart Stores Inc., estimates corn and soybean meal account for 65 percent of its cost of maintaining 32 million laying hens. Spending on feed during the three months ended March 1 was 45.9 cent per dozen eggs, down from 54.7 cents a year earlier, even with higher soy-meal prices, the Jackson, Mississippi-based company said.

“If we get good weather and we hit the yields that have been projected by both USDA and some of the private services, we should have adequate supplies of both corn and soybean once this year’s crop is harvested,” Timothy A. Dawson, the chief financial officer, said at a June 3 conference in New York.
Tight Supply

With much of the U.S. crop still three months from being harvested in the Midwest, there’s still time for output to be hurt by dry weather. Societe Generale SA said in a report on June 4 that the U.S. government is overly optimistic about production and that demand will top estimates. The Paris-based bank raised its fourth-quarter price forecast to $13.66.

“Demand for soybeans and soybean meal continues to be strong both in the U.S. and in the export market,” SocGen analysts led by Michael Haigh, the head of commodities research, said in the report. “Despite increasing South American supplies, we see a much tighter inventory picture.”

While U.S. supplies are tight, output will be a record for a second straight year in South America, including an all-time high of 87.5 million metric tons in Brazil, the top exporter, USDA data show. World production may rise 6.1 percent to 301.2 million tons in the 12 months ending in July 2015, which would include crops that South American growers start planting in October, Hamburg-based researcher Oil World said June 3.
World Surplus

Global stockpiles on Aug. 31, 2015, probably will rise to a record 81.98 million tons from 66.79 million expected this year, a Bloomberg survey showed. That’s equal to more than 29 percent of estimated use, up from about 21 percent in 2012, when futures reached a record $17.89.

“The U.S. could lose 200 million bushels of production without significantly tightening the world inventory,” said Chris Gadd, an analyst for Macquarie Group in London.

Ron Moore, 58, who farms 2,100 acres near Roseville, Illinois, planted the most soybeans in five years because it cost $200 less per acre to grow than corn. With the drop in grain prices this year, soybeans will earn $100 more per acre more, ending a seven-year profit edge for corn, he said.

“Soybeans were a better economic choice,” Moore said. “Farmers are simply responding to the economic incentives of the market.”
 
Palladium Reaches 3-Year High on South African Strike
By Nicholas Larkin and Glenys Sim Jun 10, 2014 10:37 AM GMT+0200

Palladium reached the highest price in more than three years after government-led talks with the union leading a pay strike in South Africa failed. Platinum climbed to the highest this month and gold was little changed.

More than 70,000 mineworkers have been on strike since January in South Africa, the largest producer of platinum and the second-biggest for palladium. Negotiations overseen by Minister of Mineral Resources Ngoako Ramatlhodi with the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union ended without a resolution. Producers will consider steps to end the strike.

Palladium gained 18 percent this year and platinum rose 6.6 percent as the South African labor strike cost companies about 22 billion rand ($2.1 billion). Demand for the metals, which are mainly used in pollution-control devices in vehicles, will exceed supply for a third successive year, Johnson Matthey Plc data show. Holdings in platinum- and palladium-backed exchange-traded products are at records, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“The strike still remains unresolved and this could rumble on for some time,” Robin Bhar, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London, said by phone today. “That will gradually tighten up supply. There’s quite a bullish outlook from the demand side” as consumption by car companies increases, he said.

Palladium for immediate delivery rose 0.5 percent to $847.25 an ounce by 9:02 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. It touched $849.25, the highest since February 2011. The metal for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange gained 0.7 percent to $847.65. Futures trading volume was 11 percent above the average for the past 100 days for this time of day, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.

Platinum Price

Platinum was 0.6 percent higher at $1,461.85 an ounce in London. It reached $1,465.65, the highest since May 30.

Repeated attempts have failed to engineer a breakthrough in the dispute that has idled 60 percent of output in South Africa. The talks that ended yesterday were to be the last led by the government, according to Ramatlhodi. The AMCU will meet with members starting today to get views on how to respond to the outcome of talks, AMCU leader Joseph Mathunjwa said.

Palladium demand will beat supply by 1.6 million ounces this year and platinum’s shortage will total 1.2 million ounces, both the most ever, according to Johnson Matthey data.

Gold slipped in May as tension eased between Ukraine and Russia and as the euro weakened on speculation that the European Central Bank would add to stimulus. Data this week may show U.S. retail sales rose after Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said yesterday economic growth will be stronger in the second half. Bullion slid 28 percent last year on expectations the Fed would slow bond purchases.

Bullion Demand

Bullion for immediate delivery added 0.2 percent to $1,254.87 an ounce in London. It reached a four-month low of $1,240.73 on June 3. Silver increased 0.1 percent to $19.0905 an ounce in London.

“Gold appears to be steadying after the May slump,” Howard Wen, an analyst at HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., wrote in a note. “We do expect the recent price decline to encourage some emerging market bullion demand but we do not believe this has fed into more stable gold prices, at least not yet.”
 
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