Update zu TSX:WINS und TSX:MON
Tanzania Arbitration Gamble revisited and updated https://ceo.ca/index?d7ed0dc7520a
ASX:IDA had a USD 109.5m award assigned by the ICSID in July. Tanzania filed a request for annulment, the first hearings re annulment are set for 11 October 2023 but Tanzania has even failed to pay the required bond to ICSID. Chances are imho 99% that the annulment request will be denied. But there might not even be a hearing as Tanzania is in parallel trying to reach a settlement out of court. The current Tanzania President has requested a meeting with IDA. But IDA holds the cards as they have the award. If they strike a deal, it must be a meaningful one for IDA (e.g. USD 80m cash asap). ASX:IDA is a BUY
In parallel Winshear Gold Corp TSX:WINS had its hearing about their CAD 124m claim also in February 2023 and was expecting an award any moment now. Yesterday 18 September ICSID notified the public as follows „The proceeding is suspended pursuant to the parties’ agreement.“ https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/20/25 aka both sides, $WINS and the Tanzanian authorities have mutually agreed to halt the procedure. It can only mean they are in advanced talks or might have even reached a preliminary agreement to settle out of court. Given IDA’s award and how the WINS hearing went, it would be very surprising if WINS settled for significantly less than 50% of their original claim, I would assume they would aim for more. In any case, this is a very positive development as the Tanzanian’s are trying to settle last minute for (a little less) than a likely award in court, plus it would serve as a positive signal to the investor community that Tanzania under the current regime is recognizing its international obligations under BITs. WINS traded at 21 million CAD market cap at yesterday’s close. My personal upside expectation from here is a minimum 150% if they successfully settle outside of court (as it very much appears to be happening). BUY:WINS
Coming to the last of the stallions in the race. Montero Mining TSX:MON can sit back relaxed and watch things unfold. It is essentially the same claim, it is the same legal team as with IDA and WINS, hearings are scheduled for December, an award would be issued by April/May 2024 with interest accruing in the interim (remember, in IDA’s case accruing interest is 1 million a MONTH!). MON currently trades at approx. 8 million market cap at yesterday’s close. My personal upside expectation from here is a minimum 400% if they settle outside of court. BUY:MON
Tanzania Arbitration Gamble revisited and updated https://ceo.ca/index?d7ed0dc7520a
ASX:IDA had a USD 109.5m award assigned by the ICSID in July. Tanzania filed a request for annulment, the first hearings re annulment are set for 11 October 2023 but Tanzania has even failed to pay the required bond to ICSID. Chances are imho 99% that the annulment request will be denied. But there might not even be a hearing as Tanzania is in parallel trying to reach a settlement out of court. The current Tanzania President has requested a meeting with IDA. But IDA holds the cards as they have the award. If they strike a deal, it must be a meaningful one for IDA (e.g. USD 80m cash asap). ASX:IDA is a BUY
In parallel Winshear Gold Corp TSX:WINS had its hearing about their CAD 124m claim also in February 2023 and was expecting an award any moment now. Yesterday 18 September ICSID notified the public as follows „The proceeding is suspended pursuant to the parties’ agreement.“ https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/20/25 aka both sides, $WINS and the Tanzanian authorities have mutually agreed to halt the procedure. It can only mean they are in advanced talks or might have even reached a preliminary agreement to settle out of court. Given IDA’s award and how the WINS hearing went, it would be very surprising if WINS settled for significantly less than 50% of their original claim, I would assume they would aim for more. In any case, this is a very positive development as the Tanzanian’s are trying to settle last minute for (a little less) than a likely award in court, plus it would serve as a positive signal to the investor community that Tanzania under the current regime is recognizing its international obligations under BITs. WINS traded at 21 million CAD market cap at yesterday’s close. My personal upside expectation from here is a minimum 150% if they successfully settle outside of court (as it very much appears to be happening). BUY:WINS
Coming to the last of the stallions in the race. Montero Mining TSX:MON can sit back relaxed and watch things unfold. It is essentially the same claim, it is the same legal team as with IDA and WINS, hearings are scheduled for December, an award would be issued by April/May 2024 with interest accruing in the interim (remember, in IDA’s case accruing interest is 1 million a MONTH!). MON currently trades at approx. 8 million market cap at yesterday’s close. My personal upside expectation from here is a minimum 400% if they settle outside of court. BUY:MON
