The Big Picture

[Kesso]

dukezero schrieb am 10.08.2009, 15:49 Uhr[/url]"]Es geht weiter aufwärts...
Iron Ore Prices Jump 10% to $111 a Ton for India-China Cargoes
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By Bloomberg News

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Cash prices for iron ore delivered to China from India surged 10 percent, the biggest gain in two months, because of increasing demand from the world’s biggest steelmaker and buyer of the raw material.

The spot price for ore from India climbed to $111 a ton, the highest since October last year, according to Metal Bulletin prices for the week ended Aug. 7. That measures the price of material with 63.5 percent iron ore content.

Iron ore from Australia for immediate delivery advanced 9.2 percent to $104.1 a metric ton for the week ended Aug. 7, according to The Steel Index. That’s for ore with 62 percent iron content. Both prices include freight charges.

--Helen Yuan. Editor: Tan Hwee Ann

To contact the Bloomberg News staff on this story: Helen Yuan in Shanghai at hyuan@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 10, 2009 05:55 EDT

 

[Kesso]

dukezero schrieb am 10.08.2009, 16:52 Uhr[/url]"]http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-greatest-wealth-shifts-of-all-time-35011

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 17.08.2009, 17:52 Uhr[/url]"]Die richtige Anlagestrategie - eine Illusion

Wildbahn Börse

Ein Kommentar von Markus Zydra: www.sueddeutsche.de/finanzen/760/484199/text/

Nicht effizient, sondern evolutionär: Darwins Evolutionstheorie erklärt die Instabilität der Finanzmärkte.
Ökonomisch rationales Handeln an den Märkten ist demnach nur noch ein Sonderfall.

Der Kapitalmarkt-Professor läuft mit einem Studenten über die Straße, als der plötzlich ausruft: "Da vorne liegt ein 100-Euro-Schein, soll ich ihn aufheben?" Da sagt der Gelehrte: "Bemühen Sie sich nicht, wenn er echt wäre, hätte ihn schon längst jemand aufgehoben."

Dieser fiktive Dialog beschreibt die wohl einflussreichste Hypothese der Wirtschaftswissenschaft. Demnach sind Märkte effizient. Ein besitzerloser echter 100-Euro-Schein bleibt niemals liegen, ein kaputtes Radio am Bordstein hingegen schon.

Dieses Axiom prägt die Finanzmärkte bis heute. Demnach können sich an Börsen eigentlich keine Spekulationsblasen bilden - oder zumindest nicht lange halten. Schließlich wissen Händler ganz schnell, "ob der Schein echt ist". Günstige Aktien werden sofort gekauft, teure Papiere sofort verkauft, und so bildet sich am freien Markt ein fairer Gleichgewichtspreis.


Brutal widerlegt

Der schottische Philosoph und Begründer der Nationalökonomie Adam Smith sprach im 18. Jahrhundert von der "unsichtbaren Hand", die das gesellschaftliche Glück erhöht, wenn jeder Einzelne sein persönliches Glück zu steigern versuche, wozu auch die Nachfrage nach Gütern in einer Volkswirtschaft gehört. Märkte sind demnach effizient und nützlich. Das mag sein, aber zu welchem Preis?

Denn so eingängig die Effizienzhypothese daherkommt, so brutal ist sie in den vergangenen Jahren widerlegt worden. 1998, 2000 und 2007 kam es zu schlimmen Börsenkrisen. Wie kann eine Aktie im Februar 40 Euro wert sein und zwei Monate später nur noch 2,50 Euro? Welcher der beiden Preise ist fair? Und wenn jeder einzelne dieser Preise an dem bestimmten Handelstag fair bemessen war - welche Aussagekraft haben Preise dann überhaupt?

Die Effizienztheorie geht davon aus, dass Preise an den Börsen die beste Richtschnur sind für den Wert ökonomischer Vermögenswerte und somit die beste Basis für Investitions- und Produktionsentscheidungen.

Der Grund: Alle weltweit verfügbaren Informationen zu einer Aktie sind in der Notierung verwurstet, denn die unsichtbare Hand bündelt alle Käufe und Verkäufe der Menschen in einem Preis. Jedes Geschäft basiert dabei auf der vernünftigen Abwägung der individuell verfügbaren Informationen.


Ungeheure Anziehungskraft

Diese rationale Sichtweise hat seit den fünfziger Jahren eine ungeheure Anziehungskraft auf Ökonomen ausgeübt, weil sie eine Sozialwissenschaft wie die Lehre der Ökonomie mit den Methoden der Naturwissenschaft beschreiben konnte. Alles wurde so schön mathematisch und logisch. Aufgrund der Effizienzvermutung war es nur folgerichtig, die Finanzmärkte zu deregulieren und den globalen Finanzsektor zu expandieren - und das alles, um damit die größte Finanzkrise seit 1929 auszulösen?

Was treibt die Finanzmärkte? Ist es die Vernunft, die Psychologie oder das Gen des Menschen? Vielleicht liegen die 100 Euro auf der Straße, weil alle Passanten davon ausgegangen sind, dass irgendjemand die Echtheit des Scheins überprüft hat, obwohl es niemand getan hat.

Die Effizienztheorie besagt, dass eine überteuerte Aktie am Markt schnell auf den fairen Preis zurückfällt, weil vernünftige Marktteilnehmer ihr Kapital bündeln, um auf fallende Kurse zu wetten, durch sogenannte Leerverkäufe. Eigentlich ein sicheres Geschäft, doch John Maynard Keynes sagte schon in den dreißiger Jahren, Märkte könnten länger irrational bleiben als man selbst flüssig. Niemand weiß, wie lange der Irrsinn anhält.


Viele überschätzen sich

Natürlich hätte man ab 2006 gegen die steigenden Aktienkurse wetten können, doch kaum jemand kann sich das leisten. Der Konformitätsdruck in der Finanzbranche und die Angst, den Job zu verlieren, machen es sehr schwer, gegen die Mehrheit anzugehen.

Deshalb kaufen Anleger ihre Aktien dann, wenn sie teurer werden, und kaufen nicht, wenn die Preise fallen. Konsumenten verhalten sich genau andersherum. Viele Investoren überschätzen sich auch. Sie ahnen, dass der Preis zu hoch ist, hoffen aber, rechtzeitig aussteigen zu können. Die Behavioural-Finance-Forschung hat diese Irrationalität gut dokumentiert.

Einige Finanzwissenschaftler greifen nun auf die Evolutionstheorie des Naturwissenschaftlers Charles Darwin zurück. Investoren befinden sich demnach in freier Wildbahn; konkurriert wird um die beste Anlagestrategie. Beute ist das Kapital, die Selektion geschieht über Gewinn und Verlust. Mutationen sind finanztechnische Neuerungen, etwa Derivate.

Ein solcher Markt ist nie im Gleichgewicht, er verändert sich ständig, und Investoren, rational und irrational, machen Fehler bei der Anpassung. Versuch und Irrtum bestimmen die Entwicklung, Strategien beeinflussen sich gegenseitig. Wenn zu viele Anleger dieselben Papiere kaufen, wird es selbstzerstörerisch. Wie wenn Raubkatzen alle Beutetiere wegfressen und deshalb verhungern. Das ist nicht effizient, aber evolutionär.


Dauernde Unruhe

Adam Smith' unsichtbare Hand ist in dieser Darwin'schen Erklärungswelt ein Sonderfall. Wettbewerb kann individuelles Verhalten für die Gesellschaft nützlich machen - muss es aber nicht. Die Dynamik der Finanzwelt führt zu einer dauernden Unruhe im System, die zunimmt, weil die Finanzmärkte sich immer stärker vernetzen. Daraus folgt, dass es die richtige Anlagestrategie nicht geben kann, sondern nur eine den Umständen angepasste.

Für Privatsparer ist die Auswahl der Geldverwalter, die unter diesen Prämissen lange Erfolg haben, leider begrenzt. Die Marktregel, dass brillante Köpfe knapp sind, gilt wohl ewig weiter.

 

[Kesso]

dukezero schrieb am 19.08.2009, 10:54 Uhr[/url]"]Buffet: Geldschwemme in USA bedroht Wirtschaft und Dollar.

New York (BoerseGo.de) - Für die USA ist eine stärkere Befassung mit den massiven Geldspritzen für das Finanzsystem dringend erforderlich. Dies erklärte Bloomberg zufolge der Multi-Milliardär Warren Buffet. Die enormen Geldbeträge seien als Bedrohung für die weltgrößte Volkswirtschaft und den Dollar anzusehen. Der Geldsprudel habe das Finanzsystem gerettet und die amerikanische Wirtschaft auf den Weg einer langsamen Erholung gebracht. Er habe zwar den von der Notenbank und der Bush-und Obama-Regierung gesetzten Maßnahmen Beifall gespendet, doch befinden sich nun die USA auf faktisch unerforschten Territorium. Das Finanzsystem erhalte nach wie vor enorme als Medizin gedachte Geld-Dosierungen. In kurzem dürfte diese Vorgehensweise mit Nebeneffekten einhergehen. Es bestehe die Möglichkeit, dass diese derzeit vorerst unsichtbaren Begleiterscheinungen noch für eine längere Zeit nicht zum Vorschein kommen.

Die daraus entstehende Bedrohung gehe jedoch mit einer gleichen unheilbringenden Gefahr wie zuvor durch die Finanzkrise einher. Die Flut an Dollar-Ausgaben dürfte das Haushaltsdefizit im laufenden Fiskaljahr auf 13 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsproduktes bringen. Gleichzeitig steige die Nettoverschuldung des Landes auf 56 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsproduktes. Die Verantwortlichen hätten sich zudem die Pflicht auferlegt, alles mögliche zu unternehmen, um die Wirtschaft auf Wachstumskurs zurückzubringen. Wenn einmal die Erholung in Gang gekommen ist müsse der Kongress dem Anstieg der Verschuldung ein Ende setzen und das Wachstum in Relation zu den Ressourcen setzen. Aufgrund des Umstands, dass die Investitionen der Regierung 185 Prozent der Einnahmen betragen bedürfe es größerer Veränderungen im Bereich der Steuern und Ausgaben. Die Wirtschaft könne nicht gesunden, so lange diese Lücke nicht geschlossen wird. Zudem sei es sicher, dass ungehemmte Dollar-Ausgaben die Kaufkraft der Währung zur Schmelze bringen. Das Schicksal des Dollars hänge davon ab, ob sich der Kongress weiterhin belügt, führte der Chairman der Investmentgesellschaft Berkshire Hathaway im Rahmen eines vortägigen Kommentars in der "New York Times" weiter aus.

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 21.08.2009, 07:32 Uhr[/url]"]OTHER VOICES

Commodities' Coming Rebound

By HAROLD L. SIRKIN and JAMES W. HEMERLING

@Barrons.com
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124242700745125281.html

"Global demand dictates commodity prices will rise again.."

THE METEORIC RISE AND FALL OF COMMODITY prices last year should end all doubt about the interconnectedness of today's global economy. Almost every economic bump is felt by everyone, everywhere, in real time. And it all happens very fast.

Starting in the 1990s, Japan endured a long and painful recession. It suffered virtually alone. Now, when there is suffering, it goes around; everyone hurts.

When the books closed on 2008, the euro zone, United Kingdom, Japan and the United States were all in recession, as were many other countries. Mexico's economy had gone flat. Even the Chinese and Indian economies had slowed dramatically, with China tumbling from 13% growth in 2007 to 6.8% in the fourth quarter of last year.

Americans are competing against everyone from everywhere for everything, and the recession hasn't changed that.

During the boom, when everyone from everywhere was competing for everything, the prices of seed, feed, fertilizer, pesticides, oil, coal, cotton, natural gas, iron ore, copper, zinc, tin, nickel, bauxite, potash, gypsum, rubber and nearly every other commodity shot up. When the global economy took a nose-dive, commodity prices naturally fell.

The recession won't last forever. And when it ends-when consumer demand picks up- prices of raw materials will increase again.

Several factors were responsible for the pre-recession spikes in commodity prices. They still lurk behind the recessionary headlines. Among the most important: the growth of the middle class in the rapidly developing economies; large-scale infrastructure investments in many developing nations; and the emergence in these regions of a huge new consumer cohort, which has developed out of the poverty of the past.

The size of this low-income cohort dwarfs anything the global marketplace has ever seen. Approximately one billion people, one- seventh of the world's population, are moving out of poverty and entering the market as consumers. If these billion consumers were a nation, they would have the third-largest population in the world and the 10th-largest gross domestic product.

In the recent past, it was a struggle for many of these new consumers even to put food on the table. Now they are likely to be working in factories and call centers, earning money that lets them boost their protein and calorie intake. They are also spending on cellphones, consumer electronics, appliances, clothing and cosmetics. They are moving up from bicycles to motor scooters, and from scooters to small cars. They are advancing from manual farming to mechanized farming. Prior to the downturn, purchases of tractors by India's 306 million farmers was increasing at 20% per year. Such purchases push up demand for steel, rubber, fuel, seed and fertilizer.

MANY NEW CONSUMERS HAVE BEEN moving from the countryside to the cities, or from their countries of origin to lands with better job opportunities.

In China, 140 million to 150 million migrant workers (more than Japan's entire population) are constantly on the move, crowding the cities where the most work exists. Such migration has prompted increased investment in housing, roads, railways, electricity and other infrastructure projects. This also has affected commodity prices.

Merrill Lynch estimated last year that the developing economies would invest some $2.25 trillion annually over the next three years to meet their infrastructure needs. While the recession may slow investment in some countries, China has responded to the slowdown by increasing its planned infrastructure spending.

China lacks the raw materials it needs to manufacture steel. This has turned it into the world's largest importer of iron ore. It has been accounting for 40% or more of the international iron-ore trade in recent years.

China's need for steel will continue long into the future. Remember that the U.S. took 35 years to finish its Interstate highway system. It took 16 years for Japan to build its New Trunk Line railway. Even with China spending a reported 9% of its GDP on infrastructure, it will take decades to bring its roads, ports, airports, power-generation capacity and other infrastructure systems up to speed.

THE THIRD CRITICAL ELEMENT in the commodities story is the explosive growth of the global middle class. China's National Bureau of Statistics estimates that 350 million Chinese will attain middle-class status during the next 10 years.

The brokerage firm CLSA estimated in 2007 that some 70 million Indian households already had attained that status, loosely defined as including people with incomes ranging from $2,000 to $44,000 per year. Such numbers continue to rise.

All of these factors-the emergence of an unprecedented low-income consumer cohort, large increases in infrastructure expenditures and the growth of the global middle class-pushed commodity prices higher.

World leaders are struggling to get their economies growing again. Many, including the U.S., will pour hundreds of billions of dollars into infrastructure.

We can't predict what effect such projects will have on the American economy or those of other countries. We can predict that increased demand for steel, copper, cement and other construction materials will be reflected in commodity prices.

They may not rise soon to pre-recession levels. But they will increase. Even in bad times, Americans are competing with everyone from everywhere for everything. The recession hasn't changed that.

HAROLD L. SIRKIN AND JAMES W. HEMERLING are senior partners of The Boston Consulting Group and co-authors, with BCG partner Arindam K. Bhattacharya, of Globality: Competing with Everyone from Everywhere for Everything (Business Plus, June 2008).

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 27.08.2009, 09:08 Uhr[/url]"]Bankenmafia regiert die Welt

Wie die italienische Mafia sind die Wallstreetbanker intelligent vernetzt und bilden heute das Musterbeispiel für organisierte Kriminalität. Sie ziehen ihre Kunden über den Tisch und rufen nach dem Steuerzahler, wenn Sie auf die falsche Farbe am Roulette-Tisch gesetzt haben..

http://www.mmnews.de/index.php/200908203597/MM-News/Bankenmafia-regiert-die-Welt.html


Finanzoligopole

Im Jahr 2008 ist das globale Finanzsystem völlig zusammengebrochen. Was wir erleben durften waren unsinnige, sozialistische Bailouts die einige wenige Finanzoligopole wie Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America schufen, während andere Player wie Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers und Merrill Lynch gnadenlos in den Untergang getrieben wurden.

Um angeblich den Kapitalismus zu retten wurde Geld ohne Limit gedruckt und die Zinsen nahezu auf Null gesenkt. Der Bernanke-Ansatz ist jedoch ein Betrugssystem.

Der oberste Gangleader des amerikanischen Finanzimperiums ist zum Handlanger der größten Volksenteignung der Geschichte avanciert. Doch anstatt die Kaufkraft der Bürger zu stärken wird das verantwortungslose ökonomische Handeln die Krise nur noch weiter verschärfen und das Land in die eine Hyper-Depression stürzen, die diejenige der 30er Jahre wie einen Mini-Hurrikane aussehen lässt.

Anstatt das alte System, welches gescheitert ist, untergehen zu lassen, wird alles versucht um dieses künstlich am Leben zu erhalten.


Hütchenspieler im Casino

Es ist eine der größten Illusionen zu glauben, dass diejenigen, die an der Regierung sind, intelligenter sind als alle anderen. Wer in die Politik geht hat dadurch schon bewiesen, dass er dümmer ist als alle anderen, denn sonst hätte er ja eine Managementkarriere verfolgt oder ein eigenes Unternehmen gegründet.

Je mehr die Politiker der Finanzmafia helfen zu überleben, desto schneller wird die gesamte Welt in den Ruin getrieben und wir werden in Bälde ein Obamageddon erleben.

Scheinbar gibt es ausser Ron Paul in den USA keinen Politiker, der offen ausspricht, dass die Geldjunkies von der Wallstreet in die Schranken gewiesen und auf die Anklagebank gehören.

Dies ist ein notwendiger Schritt um die Revision des Geldsystems einzuleiten. Als hinreichende Bedingung hierfür muss auch die Funktion der Zentralbank überdacht und diese gegebenenfalls geschlossen werden. Die verblendeten Harvard- und Yale Karrieristen die in den Spielcasinos, genannt Investmentbanken, anheuerten, haben noch nie in ihrem Leben wirklich gearbeitet. Sie drücken Tasten, um ihre Kunden über den Tisch zu ziehen und rufen nach dem Steuerzahler, wenn Sie auf die falsche Farbe am Roulette-Tisch gesetzt haben.


I mafiusi di banca

Wie die italienische Mafia sind die Wallstreetbanker intelligent vernetzt und bilden heute das Musterbeispiel für organisierte Kriminalität.

Seit der Begriff »Mafia« durch Giuseppe Rizzottos 1863 uraufgeführte Komödie »I mafiusi de la Vicaria« populär wurde, hat es viele, zum Teil auch konträre Bedeutungen erhalten.

Für einige Zeitgenossen, speziell an der Wallstreet mögen Banker mutige Männer sein, weil Sie hohe Risiken eingehen, in Wahrheit sind diese jedoch hochgefährliche Zocker und fest organisierte Kriminelle, deren Ziel stets darin bestand, Gelddruckmaschinen zu generieren, um mit ihrer Macht die Politiker zu beeindrucken und wo notwendig zu bestechen.

Zur Bankenmafia gehören nicht nur die Banken, die den Finanz-Hurrikane überlebt haben, sondern auch die Federal Reserve und die Schlüsselposition des US-Finanzministers. Dank eines hoch entwickelten Systems von Rängen und Führungsposten, das quer durch die Vorstands- und Aufsichtsratslandschaft in den USA verläuft, wird versucht, alles was mit Geld zu tun hat unter Kontrolle zu bringen, einschließlich dem Eintreiben der Steuern.


Organisierte Kriminelle

Nach einer von Frank Hagan (1983) zusammengestellten Übersicht herrscht weitgehend Übereinstimmung darüber, daß von organisierter Kriminalität dann gesprochen wird, wenn 1. ein dauerhaft angelegtes und 2. rational operierendes Unternehmen darauf ausgerichtet ist, 3. Gewinne durch illegale Betätigungen zu erzielen. Genau diese Kriterien erfüllen die Bankster in Big Apple.

An der Wallstreet scheint man trotz Krise wieder zur Tagesordnung des Hochgeschwindigkeits-Programm-Day-Tradings übergegangen zu sein, wobei man bei Goldman Sachs die spezielle Spielart des Gewinnens ohne Risiko kreiert hat.

Ein Tor wer glaubt, dass hier alles mit rechten Dingen zugehen kann, wenn man in nur 100 Handelstagen Milliardengewinne einfährt.

Bei der Bankenmafia handelt es sich offensichtlich um schwerwiegende Wirtschaftsverbrecher. Es werden fast ausschließlich nur solche Geschäfte in Angriff genommen, die hohe Gewinne versprechen, wobei Toxizität das Schlüsselwort darstellt, um das Ausmaß der Giftmischerei zu erahnen. Dass Kredite an Unternehmen nicht zu den hochprofitablen Geschäften zählen, zeigt die aktuelle Kreditklemme in der Wirtschaft.


Ehre und Verschwiegenheit

Der Grund für dieses komplizierte System liegt vor allem in der Notwendigkeit, die Drahtzieher der Finanzmafia, die eigentlichen Bosse, vor der öffentlichen Aufmerksamkeit und den Strafverfolgungsbehörden zu schützen.

Die rangniederen Banker bilden hierbei einen Puffer zwischen dem geheimen Teil der Bankenmafia und der Öffentlichkeit. Wie bei der richtigen italienischen Mafia beruht das System der inneren Legitimation auf zwei Werten: Ehre und Verschwiegenheit.

Wie sonst wäre es möglich, dass in sonntäglichen Überraschungsaktionen Finanzinstitute ohne Ausschreibung von ihren Wettbewerbern geschluckt werden können. Die Gesellschaft der Ehrenmänner verleibt sich alles ein, was sie sich einverleiben wollen, ohne dass ein Aufruhr der Entrüstung durchs Volk gehen kann, weil alle wichtigen Entscheidungen im Verborgenen gefällt werden.

Auch wird das Volk in keinster Weise über die systemischen Risiken aufgeklärt, die eingegangen werden, auch wenn der weltweite Derivate-Markt das Bruttosozialprodukt der USA um den Faktor 50 übersteigt. Welch eine Ehre soviel Leverage zu besitzen, dass man die gesamte Weltwirtschaft damit durch Manipulation der Geldmenge ins Chaos stürzen kann!


Ponzi war Peanuts

Für außenstehende Betrachter erscheint die Finanzwelt als ein komplexes Netzwerk. Dieses hat in den letzten Jahren hauptsächlich hochspekulative Produkte mittels Verbriefung von Schulden hervorgebracht, um damit das größte Ponzi-Schema aller Zeiten zu designen.

Deshalb kann man hier mit Fug und Recht von Verbrechen in organisierter Form sprechen.

Beim organisierten Verbrechen der Bankenmafia handelt es sich um die Tätigkeit von Bankern die mit vorausgreifender Planung arbeitsteilig und dauerhaft in Gewinnerzielungsabsicht schwere Straftaten begehen indem Sie die Bürger im Rahmen von absichtlich herbeigeführten Finanzkrisen im Abstand von 10 Jahren systematisch enteignen.

Deshalb wird es Zeit, dass die Bürger durch eine Anti-Mafia-Kampagne aufgeklärt werden über das totalitäre Treiben der Bankster von der Wallstreet und der Federal Reserve. Vielleicht brauchen wir bald wie bei der richtigen italienischen Mafia ein Zeugenschutzprogramm für diejenigen Banker, die die ehrenwerte Gesellschaft nicht mehr mittragen können.

 

[Kesso]

dukezero schrieb am 27.08.2009, 10:06 Uhr[/url]"]Merrill McHenry: Uranium—Looking at the Big Picture


The exogenous events significantly boosting uranium demand for China and India are far greater than the minimal and distant "ifs" of private sector reactor delays. Not to mention China has actually boosted reactor construction, while India made no delays and entered the world market. "Investors need to look at the big picture of the sector," says analyst Merrill McHenry, MBA, CFA, who presents Energy Report readers with an educational and thought-provoking overview of U308's fundamentals and future in this exclusive written interview.

The Energy Report: There's a lot of "news" swirling around uranium (i.e., Russia has a moratorium, China is building dozens of nuclear facilities, recession is pausing development of nuclear facilities and more.) What is the truth regarding uranium? What should investors in this sector be watching?

Merrill McHenry: Let's start with the last question first. If investors had to watch one thing in the uranium market, it would be the uranium "term price." That is the long-term contracting price for uranium suppliers and (utility) buyers. Over time, the spot and term prices will tend to converge (i.e., if the spot price drops too far below the term price, utilities will purchase additional inventory and store it).

The spot market is more illiquid than most think; and it is far from realistic for the sector to be affected by minimal spot volumes—sometimes they are as low as one or no transactions. In effect, too often the small tail of the spot market wags the dog (sector). Investors need to look at the big picture of the sector, and it is fine.

The ‘truth' on uranium is the secular (long-term) bullish case never went away—people and human behavior just accentuated a cyclical (short-term) correction. It's human nature that people overreact and chase prices on the way up, and, while in a panic, bail shares on the way down. I have been on both the "buy" and "sell-side" and I know how people do not want to buy when they should—and vice versa. (It is called "group think.") Human nature also has people mistakenly thinking in absolutes, when in the end most things are relative. Even "experts" do this. These factors often wrongly affected investors' perspectives, and I would say this was the case with the uranium sector. Investors should remain objective as well as aware of this.

Uranium's spot market massive price rise from its long-term range in the $10 range was a parabolic moon shot to $138. I keep telling people any asset (i.e., commodities) that does a parabolic price rise is going to have a crack in the vertical price rise [note the chart] where the meddle of the bullish thesis will be tested. That is the time to see about the real secular case.

Technically speaking, giving up one-third or two-thirds the parabolic price rise frequently happens, just as stocks may have similar cyclical rally retrenchments. If the secular case really exists, then the asset will hold a new pricing equilibrium and a new paradigm exists; the asset will not fall back to the previous trading range. Low and behold, uranium did not fall back to the previous multi-decade $10 range; a new supply and demand equilibrium was established in the $40 range—off approximately two-thirds from the parabolic high.

China stepped in, filled its North American and European storage contracts, and started taking physical delivery. India stepped in, and the utility spot buyers resurfaced. We have endured the highest spot market volume in 13 years of TradeTech data this year from the remaining financial players liquidating inventories. We are over 20% ahead of the next closest record and yet the new uranium floor is over four times higher than the previous paradigm. This is where you see the secular bullish case. The new uranium pricing paradigm held and a new floor was put in place for a new bullish cycle within a secular bull market. This is when one should start buying aggressively. There was a selling exhaustion on the stocks—the good thrown out with the bad—and the sector was/is oversold versus its long-term fundamentals.

The bottom line is the vast majority, if not all, nuclear reactor construction projects have gone ahead. Those are in China and India, and they are either state or quasi-state sponsored projects. Moreover, this year China added three new reactor projects, to 24 under construction, with its stimulus funding. China currently has only 11 nuclear reactors.

People's tendency to think in absolutes misses the real point about demand growth—over the last year, what the private sector took (if any), the public sector more than gave. Largely, unlike other commodities, the credit crunch effects on the private sector did not hit uranium's fundamentals. I am minimally concerned if U.S. reactor projects are delayed because those are 10 to 12-plus year project completions. What I do care about are China and India's ("Chindia") much nearer term reactor projects—those are four to six year and current uranium demand situations, respectively. Those are the main uranium secular drivers—and the truth is both actually got better.

The U.S. private sector projects have always been awaiting Congressional and DOE loan guarantees. They still are. In my book, the U.S. "if" of incremental uranium demand is so far down the road as to be of minor investment consequence.

Theoretically, any investment's value is the net present value of the future cash flows. The sector's cash flow changes due to Chindia's changes in uranium demand in five years, and currently, is of far greater investment value than potential changes in U.S. uranium demand 12 years hence. Typically, those outlier years are of minimal impact on TradeTech's uranium pricing forecast models as well.

I want to emphasize that the only thing better than bullish supply and demand factors are exogenous events. Both China and India have recently had favorable exogenous events that will greatly affect uranium demand. Both are seeking to buy well beyond current needs.

Only this year India entered the spot market after a 34-year Nuclear Suppliers Group embargo (due to India's 1974 nuclear test and refusal to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty). India is not only seeking uranium for it is current needs, but also after years of shortages and a strong national sentiment towards nuclear sovereignty, is seeking to buy sufficient uranium for all reactors for the entire service life of those reactors. Needless to say, that is and will be quite a bit of additional uranium demand. Investors should note, that was not factored in the market one year ago; it is a new and significantly bullish event.

Korea also has good sector news. Korea Resources Corp. expressed they are seeking a US$1 billion uranium mine.

So, we have had three major future uranium players—India, China and Korea—come forward with billions of dollars in additional uranium demand over the last year; and actually increasing reactor builds over plans. The uranium sector has had nothing bearish in the last year even close to those bullish factors.

As for uranium supplies, the continuing theme of 2008 was "lowered production guidance becomes a norm." My total of production cuts for 2008 was 4.7mlbs, which by way of relative comparison was roughly two months of a typical year's spot market volume. At the margin, that is a bullish number as well. Also, people do not realize the rate of existing mine depletion. Based upon current estimates, by 2020, six of the world's top 10 uranium mines will be depleted, and the top two mines will be entering the latter stages of production.

In summary, while many unknowingly ditched the sector, arguably the uranium space has a better price floor and verifiable new pricing paradigm in place than most—if not all—commodities. To use the street phrase, for uranium what has transpired in the last year—"It's all good." The exogenous events significantly boosting uranium demand for China and India are far greater than the minimal and distant "ifs" of private sector reactor delays. Not to mention China has actually boosted reactor construction; while India made no delays and entered the world market.

TER: To what extent is any pending gap between supply and demand reliant on increased demand from new facilities being constructed versus on-going operations of existing nuclear facilities?

MM: Here are the stats:

* World electricity growth is forecast to grow 85% by 2030. Approximately 4%/yr.
* 435 current reactors supply 370 Gwe and require 78,500 tonnes of uranium oxide
* 31 reactors under construction—approximately 27 Gwe
* 222 planned & proposed—187 Gwe
* Each additional Gwe requires 195/t year of uranium and 3X for initial load.
* Uranium production has to ~ double (on current consumption) to offset TENEX end in 2013 (if Russia does not replace any TENEX uranium supplies).
Source: World Nuclear Association; Merrill W. McHenry

In the "Cold War" Americans were concerned about Soviet nuclear weapons reaching American soil—unbeknownst to them many of the weapons have—just in supplying approximately 11% of the U.S.'s electricity needs via highly enriched uranium ("HEU") down blending into nuclear reactor fuel. (Nuclear is 20% of U.S. electrical production.) In the future investors are not going to know for sure the amount of Russian supplied uranium after the TENEX agreement expires in 2013. We will have to wait and see.

As for the uranium price equilibrium the players know the backdrop, and while new reactor growth will have ‘date certain' for commencing operation requiring uranium, the utilities set the reactor uranium purchases up with longer lead times and somewhat discretionary timing as to when to secure "X" amount of contracted and/or "Y" amount of spot uranium. Add to that the massive additional purchases beyond specific and current reactor needs by Chindia and uranium pricing becomes determined more and more by utility discretion than specific timing needs. One should also note much of the spot market volume has traditionally been as a backstop supplement to long-term utility uranium contracts. With the exception of Taiwan, most nuclear utilities do not primarily supply their reactors from the spot market. Another component of utility purchases is the old "like sheep in a pin" analogy. Old time uranium traders often claimed the utilities would jump to purchase uranium like ‘like a flock of sheep following the first sheep out of the gate'. The point is utilities are competitive and will chase supplies if they think others making purchases are on to something (e.g. production cutbacks), and it can strongly move the spot uranium market if the participants get excited. ("Group think" by utilities.)

TER: Do you see certain geographical areas for uranium exploration being better for investors, like Canada's Athabasca Basin? Western U.S.? Other global?

MM: The interplay between the variables— capital expenditures (capex), cash cost of extraction, size of the deposit, average deposit grade, sovereign risks, etc. make it incorrect to make geographically mutually exclusive choices. Unfortunately, it is not so simple. However, each region has its idiosyncrasies. African and East European countries have various and changing sovereign risks (at the moment Niger has heightened sovereign risks); Canada's Athabasca basin has cost issues from deposit depth (and potentially flooding—see Cigar Lake); the Western U.S. has an element of permitting risk, and the lower hanging fruit/larger deposits are largely done. Namibia, with its larger potential size bulk deposits and sovereign desire to develop mines, is attractively leveraged from a risk/reward standpoint. One could say Australia, with the largest uranium resources in the world (approximately 40%) has some of the best combination of factors—but it is a difficult market for foreign investors to access, handle additional share price volatility, and become educated on. Even for non-Australian projects (i.e., Namibia), Australian-listed companies are some of the best opportunities. In time, more of the Australian companies will offer dual-listed shares in Canada.

There are major stock market/business culture differences among countries as well. For example, having come from the U.S., I can vouch for shell-shocked surprises in share float size differences. Relative to market cap, Canadian share floats on explorers may be something like 10 times what a U.S. investor may be used to. (Caveat: there is no U.S. close sector comp, a rough approximation based on ~20Yrs U.S. experience.) The U.S. also had a bad end to the 1970s resource stock bull market biasing U.S. investors against the dreaded "penny stock." Most of the rest of the world has no idea how biased and derogatory the "penny stock" label is in the U.S.

For most in the U.S. foreign uranium stock share prices and share floats optically make them a ‘non-starter.' A bias I find unfair based on a relative risk/reward basis (aka "Treynor ratio.") Canadian investors would do well to keep in mind share floats here vs. the U.S. when they balk at the proportionately larger Australian mining company share counts. While I do shy away from the really larger share counts (or hold my nose/ be very precise on price if I really want the stock), it is relative. What typical Canadian share floats are to U.S. investors, Australian floats are to Canadian investors. Not only is it driven by country industry norms, but it is also driven by the relative size of the investor base. When there are far less investors trading shares in Australia than the U.S., Aussie companies are more inclined to issuing shares to increase trading volume. While that may not be our preference an investor is well served to realize the norms exist, they are relative, there are some reasons for them, and they should not always be a categorical deciding factor.

As a rule, keep in mind that the larger the share float, the more the company's shares will tend to track the sector. Thus large float companies are more difficult to get ahead of the company's prospects—so timing the buy with some ebb and flow of the share price becomes more important. The best times to buy those stocks are more challenging as you have to be very contrarian; the cheapest share prices are when the sector is very oversold and seemingly you are alone in buying the shares.

TER: From an individual investor's point of view, provide your perspectives on investing in juniors compared to seniors.

MM: Investors need to be aware of the lifecycle of the company's property portfolio. What stage(s) the projects and/or exploration is at. Aside from the price of uranium (systemic risk), the smaller and/or more early project stage the company, the more company risk (unsystemic risk) will affect the share prices. Technically, you would call that volatility the stock's "sector beta." That is, the stock's volatility relative to the sector.

Sector beta encompasses many company factors (e.g. management, financing, cost of production, etc.) but in general, a company's sector beta is reduced proportionate to the visibility of the cash flows (how soon, and to what degree the company is producing uranium).

Often investors wrongly perceive the risk of their investment as category wide (systemic risk), when in a larger measure the company's sector beta is the greater stock volatility factor. When an investor wants a stock from the sector, the investment(s) chosen should be with recognition of the company's sector beta; again, which is based on the stage of the company's land package—production at one end of a continuum vs. exploration at the other end.

Someone who is conservative may best have sector exposure via a major (i.e., Cameco Corp. (TSX:CCO)), which has an advanced property portfolio with significant production, and projects ramping toward various stages of development. Keep in mind many of the producers have longer-term uranium pricing contracts; so if an investor wants to be in the sector because they feel uranium is going up in price, a major producer will slowly only adjust sales and earnings to the new spot market prices ("repricing"), depending on the company's order book/strategies.

Most of us break the sector down into Producers (what I call "Tier 1"), Developers ("Tier 2"), and Explorers ("Tier 3"). A typical, modest sector knowledge investor may be best served by having a Tier 2 company. Several of the Tier 2 companies (i.e., Mega Uranium Ltd. (TSX:MGA) offer diverse portfolios of developing projects (Lake Maitland in the MGA's case) with plenty of early-stage exploration for the future. A more advanced and therefore typically less volatile (lower sector beta) Tier 2 company would be Denison Mines Inc. (TSX:DML) (NYSE.A:DNN). To my thinking, perhaps the best width (geographically diverse) and depth (development to production) prospective uranium portfolio is Aussie company Toro Energy Ltd. (ASX:TOE). TOE also has world-class management to execute on its portfolio. (The story is tempered by TOE's huge share float.)

For someone more experienced perhaps a diversified Tier 2 and Tier 3 portfolio is suitable. Obviously, keep in mind the risk increases significantly as one moves earlier in project lifecycles.

I concentrate on advancing Tier 3 companies; but keep in mind, I spend significant time following the sector and companies. I would note, given recent market conditions, many of the Tier 3 Explorers are simply not exploring—but they are burning company capital in wages and salaries to the detriment of the future exploration budget. While I can appreciate some companies really do need to wait for a better financing time—implicitly for a worthy project—I would not recommend investors own a company that is burning capital but not really exploring. By "really exploring," I do not mean picking up rocks ("grab samples"), I mean the company has near-term drilling plans. Many of those exploration companies standing pat may not be around in the future. In any event, this is not the market environment for investors in exploration companies to own shares in companies where management seems to be paying themselves first.

TER: What favorite uranium companies, seniors or juniors, are you following?

MM: One of my favorites is Strathmore Minerals Corp. (TSX.V:STM) (OTC:STHJF). There is simply no way to overlook 159.658mlbs of STM's 43-101 and Historical (non-43-101 compliant) uranium resources. Most explorers and many developers should be so lucky. On an EV/Lb basis, the company is one of the cheapest in the world. (I have one of, if not the largest, compliant uranium database in the world.) If you exclude companies whose projects have little chance of producing I would say STM is definitely the cheapest in the world. Many of STM's projects are lower cost and simpler technologically, in situ leaching ("ISL") projects. STM owns significant and diverse land packages in the premier historical uranium producing districts in the U.S. While the "Church Rock" project in New Mexico (with 14.8mlbs) may not produce owing to the current Navaho opposition (the adjacent, also called "Church Rock" project by Uranium Resources Inc. (NASDAQ:URRE), is in litigation and negotiation with the Navaho tribe.), in time I expect STM's other roughly 145mlbs of uranium to get produced. Moreover, when modern geological exploration techniques and drilling are applied to STM's older projects they have been able to expand the historical uranium resources. I expect that to continue. While I have had some concern about STM's ability to execute (cut expenses, marketing) the company President David Miller is very capable and seasoned; and STM has Japanese trading giant Summitomo Corp. ("Summi") as a $50mil JV partner on its more difficult/expensive "Gas Hills" NM project. In short, I expect Mr. Miller can, and Summi will, be able to carry the ball and get the projects developed. At the end of the day if STM cannot monetize these lbs someone will—note, STM's market cap is $11 million less than the $50 million Summi is paying for only roughly 12.5mlbs of STM's 160mlbs in projects. If it were politically viable (it is not), Summi would do better to buy the company, recapture the other 40% of the JV, and gain roughly 145mlbs in resources!

Another favorite, which I have let the cat out of the bag a bit, is Pitchstone Exploration Ltd. (TSX.V:PXP). In my opinion, perhaps the best-kept uranium exploration secret in Canada has been PXP's greenfield Namibian project. I would say that is because the project and its potential not only flew under investor's radar—but management's as well! PXP has a 55% interest in two properties from Manica Minerals Ltd. through Manica's wholly owned subsidiary Cheetah Minerals Exploration Ltd. The two properties are large; Kaoko and Dome projects total approximately 300,000 ha. It is important to note approximately 70% of these projects are under desert sand overburden which render airborne radiometrics useless. While this will require more ‘blind drilling' from widely spaced drilling "fences" based upon gravity surveys, it does not rule out the prospects merits. After all, Extract's new Namibian world-class "Rossing South" development project was a self-described "blind target" as well.


DISCLOSURE:
I personally and/or my family own the following companies mentioned in this interview: Strathmore and Pitchstone (owned before interview proposed)
I personally and/or my family am paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: N/A

Merrill W. McHenry, MBA, CFA, has been in the investment business for 25 years. As a portfolio manager he managed over US$1.5 billion in two U.S. mutual funds, and set up an international mining merchant bank. As an analyst he has worked both the buy and the sell sides; and currently provides contract research for Tier 1 and Tier 2 Investment Dealers, as well as prominent global investors. Mr. McHenry is a member of the CFA Institute, and the Toronto Society of Financial Analysts. He is owner of the domain name, and previously ran the website Uraniumanalyst.com . He can be reached at uraniumanalyst@gmail.com.





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Also by the Energy Report

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 31.08.2009, 16:19 Uhr[/url]"]Richest Mining Districts in the World

Ten mines that would make King Solomon happy
http://inord.laurentian.ca/Clippings/Sudol/SUDOLmNov-Dec-04.htm

Stan Sudol is a Toronto-based communications consultant who writes
extensively on mining and Ontario issues. He can be reached at stan.sudol@sympatico.ca</B><B>

What is the richest mining camp in the world? Finding out where the most valuable deposits are and if any Canadian sites would make a top 10 list is not easy.

The main issue when identifying a top mineral-producing region or deposit is how big an area do you include? The term "mining camp" appears to be a distinctly Canadian definition that describes a small area. Most of the mining world defines mineralized areas as belts, basins, provinces and districts.

For the sake of this comparison, I have taken "journalistic licence" with my boundary definitions that some geologists may disagree with. However, my reason for putting together the article was to put the value of northern Ontario's mineral resources in a global context, so please tolerate this "apples and oranges" comparison.

This list does not include coal, industrial minerals or diamonds. It is graded by value of commercially extractable metals including historical production and known reserves. In addition, the deposits must still be in operation.

10. Coming in at the No.10 spot is the Laramide Porphyry copper cluster of Arizona, New Mexico and Sonora (Mexico). The Morenci open pit, located in southwest Arizona, is the largest copper-producing operation in North America, and majority owner Phelps Dodge Corp. has been mining this rich deposit since the 1880s. At Safford, Ariz., close to Morenci, Phelps Dodge is also working on another development that is reputed to be the largest undeveloped porphyry copper mining district in the world. The United States is the world's second largest producer of copper.

9. The Hamersley Iron Basin in the isolated Pilbara region of Western Australia is the ninth richest mining district on our list. Iron is a relatively abundant metal that is the foundation of much of the urban infrastructure we see around us including bridges, railroads, skyscrapers and transportation vehicles. This tremendously large deposit, discovered in the 1960s, has established Australia as the third largest producer in the world. Within the Pilbara region there are 22 iron mining and processing operations employing almost 9,000 people.
Sudbury Basin - the richest in North America.

8. Coming in at No.8 is northern Ontario's legendary Sudbury Basin, an oval geologic structure 60 km long and 30 km wide. The deposit was first discovered in 1883 during the construction of the national railway. Today, this region supplies 15% of global nickel production as well as significant quantities of copper, platinum group metals, and cobalt.

The basin's 11 operating mines, owned by Inco Ltd., Falconbridge Ltd. and the FNX/ Dynatec joint venture, together form the largest and richest mining district in North America. With the ongoing commodity boom and nickel shortages, Sudbury is currently one of the most active mining camps in Canada and the United States.

Many geologists feel the basin will still be producing significant quantities of metal for another century. Falconbridge's half-billion-dollar development of the Nickel Rim South property and a major mineral discovery by Inco at Kelly Lake--richer than any other mined in the company's Ontario Operation--confirm Sudbury's untapped potential.

7. The No.7 spot goes to another iron producer. It is the gigantic iron ore deposits of Brazil's northern Carajas region. The Carajas Iron Province is an elephant deposit containing almost 18 billion tons of high-grade iron ore. It has sufficient reserves to guarantee production for about 400 years at current levels. The deposit was discovered in 1967 by a helicopter mineral survey crew on an emergency refueling stop. Brazil is the second largest global producer after China.

6. Australia holds the sixth spot with the rich bauxite deposits at Weipa, Queensland. Although bauxite, used to make aluminum, is one of the most abundant minerals in the Earth's crust, the Weipa deposits are enormous. Discovered in 1955 by geologist Harry Evans, the miles of reddish bauxite cliffs found on the Cape York Peninsula contain approximately one-quarter of the world's known reserves of this valuable mineral.

These discoveries along with other major deposits in the Darling Ranges have made Australia the world's largest producer of bauxite and the largest producer and exporter of alumina. Comalco Ltd., owned by Rio Tinto plc, has a lease on the 1.2 billion tonnes of economically recoverable ore. It is estimated that an additional 2.2 billion tonnes of ore is in the ground.

5. Chile - the copper king. The Central Andes is one of richest copper-producing districts in the world. The region surrounding the Chilean capital of Santiago is No.5 on the list. The world's largest underground copper mine, El Teniente 80 km southeast of the capital, as well as Rio Blanco and Andina to the northeast have been included in this geological region. El Teniente is a classic porphyry copper deposit that began operation in 1905 and is owned by the state mining company Codelco. Rio Blanco began production in 1925, while Andina was not discovered until 1970.

Chile is the world's largest producer of copper, providing about 40% of global production. El Teniente is at the southern end of the Central Andean Porphyry Belt, which is about 2,000 km long and traverses Chile, Bolivia and Peru. There is a series of major mineral clusters in this prolific belt, the exact boundaries of which are open to debate.

4. We must revisit Chile, in the northern Atacama Desert, to find the planet's fourth richest mining district, the Northern Andean Porphyry Belt. It includes the enormously rich copper mines of Chuquicamata and Escondida. The geology and structure of both mines are part of the same regional fault system that is 200 km long. In between are many other copper mines that, when combined with these two elephant deposits, solidify the Antofagasta region's status as the world's richest copper-producing area. Chuquicamata is named after the Native American Indian group, the Chuqui, who worked the copper deposits in pre-Hispanic times. The modern mine started production in 1915, and during the 1990s was the largest producing copper open pit in the world. That title has been taken over by the Escondida mine, which began operations in 1991.

3. South Africa's geological treasure chest: The third richest mining region is South Africa's amazing Witwatersrand Basin. Roughly centred around and to the south of Johannesburg, the Witwatersrand Basin is a 350-km by 200-km sedimentary basin. The incredibly rich gold-bearing reefs of the Witswatersrand were discovered in 1886. About 40% of all gold ever produced in the world comes from these deposits. Much of this precious metal is buried very deep and is mined at depths of up to 3.6 km.

South Africa was the world's largest producer of gold in 2003, followed by Australia, the United States and China. The gold industry is significantly important to the South African economy, being the country's major export and greatest earner of foreign currency.

2. The frigid isolation of Siberia's Taimyr Peninsula is the location of the second richest mining region in the world. The Norilsk-Talnakh deposits contain nickel, copper and excellent grades of platinum group metals, making them one of the planet's outstanding metal concentrations. In fact some orebodies contain 6 to 12 g/t platinum group metals compared with Sudbury's 1 g/t PGMs.

The deposit was discovered during the 1920s, with nickel production starting during the Second World War. The community of Norilsk was originally a Soviet penal colony, and political prisoners built the first mines and smelters. With a population of about 230,000, Norilsk is the largest city above the Arctic Circle, and until recently was closed to outsiders.
Finally, the No.1 mining region is South Africa's incredibly rich and famous Bushveld Complex, located just north of the capital, Pretoria. As the world's largest layered igneous complex, the Bushveld is one of the Earth's geological wonders. The complex is the world's greatest resource of the platinum group metals, chromium, vanadium and titanium, which occur in layers or reefs extending over hundreds of kilometres. Eighty per cent of the planet's platinum and 75% of chromium reserves are located here.

1. Measuring 350 km across and 300 km north-south, the Bushveld was formed about two billion years ago, and discovered in 1924 by Hans Merensky. South Africa is the largest producer of platinum group metals, followed by Russia, Canada (principally from the Sudbury Basin), and the United States.

There were many other mineral deposits or districts that came close to making it in the top ten list. They include Poland's Legnica-Glogow Copper Basin with its rich copper and silver deposits; South Australia's Olympic Dam, the world's largest copper/uranium mine; the gigantic and rich open pit copper mine in Bingham, Utah and the Mesabi Iron Ore Range in Minnesota.

In addition, the fabulously rich gold/copper deposits at Grasberg and Porgera would probably be included in a top twenty-list, as would the Carlin-type gold deposits in north-central Nevada. The enormous deposits of nickel laterites on New Caledonia, when they are fully developed, may also put that small South Pacific island on this exclusive list.

By monetary value, estimated at more than US$200 billion, the incredible Central African Copper Belt would have easily made the top ten list. This 600 km long and 50 km wide arc of copper mineralization stretching through Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo has historically been a major copper and cobalt producer.

However, political instability, war, nationalizations, and a host of other problems have severely curtailed mineral production. Containing more than 10% of the world's copper reserves and about 34% of global cobalt deposits, it holds enormous economic potential for these two impoverished countries when stability and good governance are established.
Mining continues to create enormous wealth

These elephant deposits or highly mineralized districts generate enormous amounts of wealth, provide many jobs and contribute to a higher standard of living for the host country. In addition, mineral development helps open up isolated regions by establishing modern transportation and communications infrastructure.

For over a century, the Sudbury Basin and other northern Ontario hard-rock mining camps have been an extraordinary economic engine for the regional economy as well as establishing Toronto as the undisputed global leader in mining equity and financial investment.

With the rapid industrialization of China, India and other developing nations the need for mineral products will continue to grow. According to the Australian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, over the next 50 years the world will use five times all the mineral supplies that have ever been mined up to the year 2000. The vast unexplored expanses of northern Ontario north of the French and Mattawa rivers contain 80% of the province's geography. How many more Sudbury Basins remain to be discovered in one of the richest geological regions of the world? CMJ

Special thanks to U.K-based Dr. Tony Naldrett (one of the foremost experts on the Sudbury Basin), Mike Porter of Porter GeoConsultancy Pty. Ltd. in Australia, and the many folks at the United States Geological Survey in Reston, Va., especially Daniel Edelstein, George J. Coakley and John Jorgenson.

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 31.08.2009, 16:23 Uhr[/url]"]Gold Mine Production, worldwide

Gold Mine Supply, worldwide

 

[Kesso]

dukezero schrieb am 02.09.2009, 12:33 Uhr[/url]"]Thema: UBS hebt Preisprognosen für Industriemetalle massiv an
Emfis News Am: 02.09.2009 11:10:44 Gelesen: 1 # 1 @
Stuttgart Die Analysten von UBS Securities sind der Ansicht, dass die Erholung der Weltwirtschaft Form annimmt - und heben deshalb ihre Prognosen zur Entwicklung der Rohstoffpreise und zu einigen Rohstoffaktien deutlich an.

Die Experten erklärten, dass globale Leitindikatoren darauf hinweisen würden, dass die Weltwirtschaft in eine Phase der zyklischen Erholung eintrete, selbst wenn man China außen vor lasse. Und in Bezug auf China sind sie der Ansicht, dass das Reich der Mitte seine Lager nicht so stark gefüllt hat, wie andere Beobachter glauben - selbst nach den enormen Metallimporten im Frühjahr und Sommer.

Die Analysten glauben, dass die Angebotslage für viele Metalle knapp sei, da eine ganze Reihe von Unternehmen ihre Produktion zurückgefahren haben und verschiedene Unternehmungen nun vor Problemen stünden, da nicht genügend Angebot zur Verfügung stehen würde. Und sie sind der Ansicht, dass die weltweiten Lager - abgesehen von China - nicht ausreichend bestückt sein könnten, sobald der Rest der Welt wieder zu den üblichen Verbrauchsmustern zurück kehrt.

Entsprechend hob die UBS ihre Preisprognose für 2010 unter anderem bei Nickel (plus 43 Prozent auf 10 USD pro Pfund), Kupfer (plus 32 Prozent auf 3,30 USD je Pfund), Zink (plus 13 Prozent auf 0,9 USD je Pfund) und Aluminium (plus 19 Prozent auf 0,95 USD je Pfund) an.

Was zur Folge hat, dass sie die Kursziele vieler Unternehmen des Sektors ebenfalls herauf setzen. Vier dieser Unternehmen "buy" from "neutral": Equinox Minerals Ltd, Quadra Mining Ltd (WKN A0CAB6), FNX Mining Company Inc und Sherritt International Corp stufen die Experten im Zuge dessen von "neutral" auf "kaufen" herauf.

Und für die Minenriesen BHP Billiton (WKN 850524) und Rio Tinto (WKN 855018) rechnet die UBS nun mit deutlich höheren Gewinnen. So könnte BHP im Geschäftsjahr, das am 30. Juni 2010 endet, einen Gewinn von 12 Milliarden Dollar erzielen, was um 31,4 Prozent über der bisherigen Schätzung liegen würde, so UBS. Der Gewinn von Rio Tinto könnte 2010 13,7 Milliarden erreichen, was 20,5 Prozent mehr wären als die Bank bisher erwartet hatte.

 

[Kesso]

dukezero schrieb am 03.09.2009, 14:21 Uhr[/url]"]Thema: Nachfrage nimmt zu - Vale öffnet Minen
Emfis News Am: 03.09.2009 12:21:24 Gelesen: 1 # 1 @
Sao Paulo 03.09.09 Der brasilianische Eisenerzproduzent Vale SA hat mitgeteilt, im Zuge steigender Nachfrage aus Japan und Europa die Produktion in einigen stillgelegten Minen wieder hochzufahren.

Ein hoher Vertreter der Vale SA sagte, dass die Nachfrage auch außerhalb Chinas wieder steige. Vor allem die japanischen Stahlproduzenten entwickelten sich sehr gut.

Während die weltweite Wirtschaftskrise sich verstärkte, ist die Produktion bei der Vale um 30 Prozent reduziert worden. Der Vertreter der Vale sagte, dass die Produktionssteigerung Zeit brauche, aber es zeige auch, dass das Unternehmen darauf vertraue, dass sich der Markt verbessere.

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 06.09.2009, 16:27 Uhr[/url]"]

[/img]

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 13.09.2009, 12:46 Uhr[/url]"]

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 13.09.2009, 12:51 Uhr[/url]"]Chinas Exporte befinden sich auch im August 2009 im negativen Bereich und dies bereits den 10. Monat in Folge. Die Exporte sanken um die dritthöchste monatliche Rate im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat seit Beginn der Datenerhebung durch die chinesischen Zollbehörden, General Administration of Customs (GAC) im Jahr 1995!

Die Exporte brachen um -23,4 zum Vorjahresmonat weg, auf ein Volumen von 103,7 Mrd. Dollar.

> Die prozentuale Veränderung des Exportvolumens im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat. Seit November 2008 geht es mit den Exportraten abwärts. Im Mai 2009 wurde der Tiefpunkt bei der Schrumpfung des Exportvolumens mit -26,4% markiert. Quelle Daten: Mofcom.gov.cn <

> Im Chart das monatliche Exportvolumen in Mrd. Dollar. 103,7 Mrd. Dollar Exportvolumen im August, nach 105,42 Mrd. Dollar im Vorjahresmonat und 134,8 Mrd. Dollar im Vorjahresmonat. Das Hoch beim Exportvolumen wurde im Juli 2008 mit 136,6 Mrd. Dollar markiert! Das Tief im Februar 2009 mit 65 Mrd. Dollar. <

Die Exporte in die USA schrumpften im August sogar um die höchste Rate seit Beginn des Abstiegs im November 2008, um -21,8% im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat, die in die EU um -26,6%.

Die Importe fielen im August auf 88 Mrd. Dollar, nach 94,791 Mrd. Dollar im Juli 2009. Im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat brachen die Importe um -17% weg!

Durch den kräftigeren Einbruch bei den Importen steigt der Handelsbilanzüberschuss steigt auf 15,7 Mrd. Dollar, nach 10,63 Mrd. Dollar im Juli und nach dem geringsten Überschuss seit 2 Jahren im Juni 2009 mit 8,25 Mrd. Dollar.

Im breiter gefassten Zeitraum vom Januar 2009 bis August 2009 gingen die Exporte um -22,2% bzw. um -206,95 Mrd. Dollar auf 730,74 Mrd. Dollar, im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum zurück. Das gesamte Außenhandelsvolumen (Exporte+Importe) fiel von Jan.-Aug. 2009 um -22,4% bzw. um -385 Mrd. Dollar auf 1,33866 Billionen Dollar zurück, im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum.

Neben dem staatlichen Konjunkturpaket in Höhe von 4 Billionen Yuan bzw. 585 Mrd. Dollar, war auch die exzessive Kreditvergabe der Banken für das Puffern der Weltwirtschaftskrise in China verantwortlich. Bei den vergebenen Krediten sieht es aber auch im August nicht nach einer Stütze für die Wirtschaft aus. Hier wurde wie bereits im Juli ordentlich die Handbremse gezogen.

> 410,4 Mrd. Yuan an vergebenen Krediten im August, nach 355,9 Mrd. Yuan im Juli und den Exzessen am Hoch von 1,890 Billionen Yuan im März 2009! <

In den ersten 8 Monaten 2009 kumulieren sich die neu vergebenen Kredite auf fulminante 8,133 Billionen Yuan (1,196 Billionen Dollar)! Dies ist immer noch das 2,6-fache der Kreditvergabe aus dem Vorjahreszeitraum mit 3,0985 Billionen Yuan (455 Mrd. Dollar)!

Eine Recovery Story sieht anders aus, das Außenhandelsvolumen bleibt weiter schwach und die Kreditvergabe fällt als Wirtschaftsbooster seit 2 Monaten ebenfalls aus. Einzig positiv, seit April steigt der Output der chinesischen Industrieproduktion auf +12,3% im August 2009, im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat!

http://wirtschaftquerschuss.blogspot.com/2009/09/chinas-exporte-mit-234-im-august.html

golden_times schrieb am 13.09.2009, 12:46 Uhr[/url]"]» zur Grafik

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[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 13.09.2009, 12:53 Uhr[/url]"]Correlation Of S&P 500 Performance With Fed Monetization Activities Since Start Of QE

The chart below requires no substantial commentary suffice it to say that since the launch of the Fed's Quantitative Easing, aka Monetization, program, the value of the Total Securities Held Outright on the Fed's Balance Sheet has increased by $917 billion- from $584 billion to $1.5 trillion. This has been accompanied by an almost linear increase in the S&P 500 Index, from 721 at QE announcement on March 18 to 1033 yesterday. This $917 billion in extra liquidity, instead of igniting an inflationary spark, as the QE program was designed to do, is now (metaphorically) sloshing around bank basements. As a reminder: the most recent reading of Total Deposit Reserves was... $886 billion dollars: An almost dollar for dollar match with the increase in Securities Held Outright of $917 billion. And instead of this excess money hitting broader aggregates such as M2 or MZM, it is held by the banks, who proceed to buy securities outright on their own, either Treasuries or Equities. Apply the proper "money multiplier" to get the monetary impact on the S&P 500, as a result of the banks not lending these excess reserves, and instead simply speculating with it, and you will likely get the increase in the market cap of the S&P since the launch of QE.

QED.

 

[Kesso]

dukezero schrieb am 15.09.2009, 21:09 Uhr[/url]"]Verbriefungen: Preise auf RMBS-Markt ziehen wieder an 11

Der Markt für verbriefte US-Wohnkredite (RMBS) hat sich laut einem Medienbericht im 2. Quartal wieder erholt.

Das "Handelsblatt" meldet, RMBS-Papiere mit einem Toprating würden derzeit mit bis zu 95 % des Nennwertes gehandelt. Zuvor hätten die Preise bis zu 15 Basispunkte niedriger gelegen. Die gesteigerte Nachfrage könnte demnächst wieder zu ersten Neuemissionen führen. Einige Marktteilnehmer wetten offenbar wieder auf eine Erholung der Konjuktur. Anleihen mit geringen Bonitätsratings sind dem Bericht zufolge allerdings nach wie vor Ladenhüter.

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 16.09.2009, 12:08 Uhr[/url]"]

 

[Kesso]

dukezero schrieb am 18.09.2009, 13:56 Uhr[/url]"]China to world: No more shiny metals for you

Posted by Tracy Alloway on Sep 17 08:35.

Wowzers. Here’s one for the gold bugs — rumours on Thursday that China may ban the export of silver and gold.

The excerpt below is from a Commodity Online piece written by Erik Bethel of SinoLatin Capital — a Shanghai-based merchant bank exclusively focused, as the name might suggest, on transactions between Latin America and China. In practice that means stuff like helping Chinese companies acquire LatAm goldmines, so the company clearly has an interest in promoting China’s apparent gold lust worldwide. Nevertheless, here’s the thrust of the piece:China may ban export of gold, silver
Last week Alan Greenspan noted that “Rising prices of precious metals and other commodities are an indication of a very early stage of an endeavor to move away from paper currencies.” In other words, people are buying gold as a hedge against inflation.

…How could China affect the price of gold? We live in China and spend a lot of time with local industry leaders and policy makers. We hear repeatedly that the time has come to think seriously about how to survive the perceived dollar devaluation. In some cases we note serious concern, and in other cases absolute dread over a perceived dollar crash.

Over the past six months Beijing has made a series of moves to protect itself against a dollar devaluation. In a recent “BRIC Summit” in Russia several months ago, Chinese leaders came out strongly in favor of a new reserve currency to replace the dollar (including the IMF’s “SDR” currency). China is also quietly purchasing mining assets and gold bullion. But the government has recently gone further.

According to Financial Sense:

As recently as 2002, the private ownership of gold was prohibited in China. You could be jailed if caught with any in your possession. Beginning in 2009, in a stunning about-face, the central government removed all restrictions. In fact, as Mineweb and other sources report now it is actively pushing folks to buy some personal metal, with China’s Central Television, the main state-owned television company, running news programs cum infomercials, letting the public know just how easy it is to purchase gold and silver as an investment.

It truly is as simple as can be, because every bank sells gold and silver bullion bars in four different sizes to individuals. (Try to find the same the next time you make the trek down to Wells Fargo.) Mining companies are reportedly encouraging employees to convert some of their wages to gold on payday. Gold is traded in some form 24 hours a day. And paper proxies for the metal are also soaring in popularity. There are persistent rumors that the export of silver has already been banned. Gold could be next.

China, we should note, is already reportedly looking at banning the exports of rare earth metals — the elements used in things like hybrid cars and superconductors.

Related links:
Hong Kong hauls over the gold - FT Alphaville
Forget Treasuries, is copper the future for China? - FT Alphaville

This entry was posted by Tracy Alloway on Thursday, September 17th, 2009 at 8:35 and is filed under Capital markets, Commodities. Tagged with china, gold, protectionism, silver.

 

[Kesso]

dukezero schrieb am 21.09.2009, 15:33 Uhr[/url]"]

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 23.09.2009, 18:59 Uhr[/url]"]Fingers of Instability, Part VI

Economic and Financial System Train Wreck Dead Ahead!

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news...20G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Ty+Andros

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 23.09.2009, 19:00 Uhr[/url]"]The Big Score

Well, here we are with the price of gold above $1,000. Since this is the day so many thought would never come, it is time for reflection.
I have lived my life in a society in which most of the “experts” have been wrong over and over..

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news...G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Howard+Katz

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 30.09.2009, 09:12 Uhr[/url]"]

 

[Kesso]

dukezero schrieb am 08.10.2009, 08:26 Uhr[/url]"]Thema: Goldman Sachs erwartet höhere Preise bei Eisenerz und Kohle
Emfis News Am: 07.10.2009 11:01:49 Gelesen: 2 # 1 @
London 07.10.09 Die Analysten der Goldman Sachs JBWere haben ihre Prognose für Eisenerz um ) Prozent auf 72 USD je Tonne in den jahren 2010 und 2011 angehoben. Die Preise für Kokskohle sollen um 16 Prozent auf 180 USD je Tonne klettern.

Preistreibend hierbei sei die Nachfrage Chinas und die dort knapper werdende Versorgung, so die Analysten.

Goldman Sachs geht davon aus, dass die weltweite Stahlproduktion im nächsten Jahr um 12 Prozent auf 1,4 Md. Tonnen steigen werde. Lieferengpässe von Rohstoffen dürften im nächsten Jahr zunehmen, wodurch die Zuliferer höhere Preise verhandeln könnten.

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 10.10.2009, 21:00 Uhr[/url]"]

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 10.10.2009, 21:01 Uhr[/url]"]

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 11.10.2009, 21:36 Uhr[/url]"]10 October 2009

Mutual Funds Are at Cash Levels Not Seen Since the 2007 Market Top

Trend following beta monkeys (TFBM) using Other People's Money (OPM).
They'll never learn. Because they don't care after they have collected their fees and bonuses.
Herd behaviour does not begin to describe this phenomenon.

The US financial system is designed to maximize financial management returns and encourage the mispricing of risk, and ultimately the distribution of wealth from the many to the few through fraud, fiduciary recklessness, and Ponzi schemes.
The root cause of the US's problems are with the distorted monetary policies of the Federal Reserve, and the regulatory failure of a government corrupted by its financial sector..

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/10/mutual-funds-are-at-cash-levels-not.html

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 11.10.2009, 22:14 Uhr[/url]"]

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 11.10.2009, 22:15 Uhr[/url]"]

 

[Kesso]

golden_times schrieb am 11.10.2009, 22:20 Uhr[/url]"]"Buy Gold!"

by Puru Saxena
Source:http://www.safehaven.com/article-14672.htm

Two day ago, the price of gold broke out to a new high and we are delighted with this result. As you will recall, we were expecting an upward breakout in gold and it looks as though its price will now surge over the following months. It is noteworthy that since the breakout occurred, gold has managed to stay above the previous high. The longer the price of gold stays above US$1,030, the greater the probability that the yellow metal will stage a spectacular rally until spring next year.

It is our contention that this breakout is the real deal and the pathetic action of the US Dollar Index supports our view. Rather than rally, the American currency has embarked on another southbound journey and this is extremely bullish for gold. Furthermore, the recent zoom in silver and the precious metals mining stocks is additional evidence that this breakout is not a head fake. Figure 1 highlights the recent breakout in gold. As you will observe, gold's bull-market has been punctuated by lengthy consolidations and this is the third time gold has broken out towards the end of the third calendar quarter..

 

[Kesso]

dukezero schrieb am 12.10.2009, 15:28 Uhr[/url]"]Thema: World Steel Association: Stahlnachfrage schon 2010 wieder auf Vorkrisenniveau
Emfis News Am: 12.10.2009 12:29:33 Gelesen: 2 # 1 @
Stuttgart Nach Untersuchungen der World Steel Association sollte die weltweite Stahlnachfrage bereits im kommenden Jahr wieder ein Niveau wie vor Ausbruch der globalen Wirtschaftskrise erreichen.

Die Experten gehen für 2010 von einem Anstieg des Stahlverbrauchs um mehr als 9 Prozent aus, nachdem bereits im laufenden Jahr der Rückgang mit 8,6 Prozent nicht so schwer ausgefallen sei wie erwartet - vor allem auf Grund des starken Wachstums in China.

China, mit Abstand der größte Stahlproduzent weltweit, sollte im laufenden Jahr einen Anstieg des Stahlverbrauchs um 18,8 Prozent auf 526 Millionen Tonnen verzeichnen, erklärte die World Steel Association am heutigen Montag. Bisher waren die Experten von einem Nachfragerückgang von 5 Prozent ausgegangen.

Noch im April hatte die World Steel Association mit einem Rückgang der Nachfrage weltweit von 14,1 Prozent gerechnet. Nun aber sind die Experten der Ansicht, dass die Erholung der Wirtschaft stärker ausfalle als damals gedacht. Der neuen Prognose zufolge werde China 2009 einen Nachfrage-Rebound von 19 und 2010 von 5 Prozent erleben. Global werde die Nachfrage im kommenden Jahr um 9,2 Prozent auf 1,206 Milliarden Tonnen steigen.

Die Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise hatte 2009 zu einem starken Einbruch der Stahlnachfrage geführt und die Gewinn auch von Branchengrößen wie ArcelorMittal in Mitleidenschaft gezogen. Doch in China stieg die Produktion deutlich an, da die Regierung in Peking ein gigantisches Infrastrukturprogramm auflegte.