The Big Picture

[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=774642#774642 schrieb:
golden_times schrieb am 26.12.2009, 20:20 Uhr[/url]"]
Gold Stock Recovery

One year ago this week, I wrote about the end of the gold-stock panic. As measured by its flagship HUI gold-stock index, this sector plummeted an unbelievable 52% in a matter of weeks in October 2008. It was an epic catastrophe and its aftermath is still reverberating through gold stocks to this day. All of 2009 has been defined by gold stocks’ recovery from this unprecedented panic anomaly.

And despite last year’s legions of naysayers wondering if the gold-stock bull was mortally wounded, recover the gold stocks have. After hitting an unbelievable panic nadir near 152 in late October 2008, the HUI quickly doubled to finish last year around 302. And a couple weeks ago the HUI closed near 511, representing an outstanding 69% year-to-date gain in 2009. This tripled the S&P 500’s 23%, impressive!

Still, the gold stocks continue to climb the proverbial wall of worries. Even though a couple weeks ago the HUI closed within 1% of its all-time high from March 2008, investors and speculators are concerned because gold rose 22% over this same span. Why hasn’t the HUI kept pace with gold’s awesome rally of late? And the last couple weeks haven’t helped either, with the HUI sharply down by 14% over a short span of time where the general stock markets were dead flat.

Considered in isolation, some of these gold-stock developments can certainly appear ominous. But when they are all placed into context like the pieces of a puzzle, the resulting picture tells an entirely different story. All of 2009’s ups and downs, triumphs and disappointments, coalesce into a coherent whole when considered together. And it paints the picture of a healthy ongoing gold-stock recovery.

Gold stocks’ progress is primarily measured through their stock prices, and the resulting abstraction known as the HUI index. And a 48% year-to-date gain as of this week on top of and following the stunning 100% gain in the final 9 weeks of 2008 is certainly excellent progress by any standard. But perhaps a more illuminating measure, one that offers more insights, is the HUI’s progress relative to the price of gold.

This relationship is best distilled in the HUI/Gold Ratio, or HGR. It is simply the daily HUI close divided by the daily gold close, charted over time. Since the HGR is such a critical metric for this gold-stock recovery, I’ve discussed it in most of the gold-stock essays I’ve written over this past year. Our subscribers have earned huge realized and unrealized gains this year betting on the mean reversion of the HGR.

Studying the HGR in context not only offers a critical perspective on the gold-stock recovery far beyond the raw HUI’s, it has a calming effect on traders’ perpetually over-excitable emotions. We’ve all seen those days in recent months where gold rallied strongly but the gold stocks lethargically refused to leverage its gains. Dwelling on those days to the exclusion of the broader trend quickly discourages.

This broader post-panic HGR trend is crystal-clear in showing that the HUI is recovering relative to gold. While there are times when gold surges ahead of the HUI (like in November), on balance the gold stocks are regaining ground relative to gold. This is readily evident in this chart, which renders the HGR in blue (right axis) on top of the raw HUI in red (left axis). The HGR’s uptrend is critical to keep in perspective.


20091218els100.jpg


The whole purpose of ratio analysis is to reveal relative performance. If the HUI had merely paced gold in 2009, had the same percentage gains as the metal these companies mine, the HGR would be a smooth flat line. But when the HGR is rising, the HUI is rallying faster than gold and outperforming it. And as you can see, not only has the HGR been rising over this past year but it has formed a well-defined uptrend.

When the HUI rockets higher much faster than gold, the most-fun times to own gold stocks, the HGR shoots up towards the upper resistance of its uptrend. And when gold rallies faster than the HUI (or is more often the case falls slower than the HUI during precious-metals pullbacks), the HGR sinks back down towards its lower support. Within the past year, there have been no fewer than 3 resistance and 4 support approaches. These extremes precisely bound the beautiful uptrend we see above.

Whether you’re an investor or speculator, the best times to add new gold-stock positions are when the HGR is down low near support. Whenever the HUI is weak enough relative to gold to drag the HGR down to the bottom of its uptrend, odds are those conditions won’t persist. They almost always occur after gold has fallen significantly and sentiment in the precious-metals world feels really dejected. Buy into the fear.

Amd speculators can also capitalize on the opposite end of this HGR uptrend, when HUI outperformance has lifted this ratio up near resistance. When the HUI is strong enough relative to gold to drive an HGR resistance approach, gold stocks are getting overbought. Traders are too excited about their near-term prospects so a pullback or correction is necessary to rebalance sentiment. Sell into the greed.

Gold stocks’ strong recovery in 2009 drove the HGR into a meandering path between these two extremes. Near resistance, traders naturally felt pretty excited about gold stocks. And near support, they naturally felt pretty discouraged. While it is easy to get caught up in these emotions when they happen to be prevailing, perspective is the key to neutralizing them in your own trading. And this perspective shows the HUI has continued to rise relative to gold on balance since last year’s brutal stock panic.

Consider the last few months’ gold-stock action within this paradigm. Between its interim highs in mid-September and early December, the HUI only rose 15%. This would be well and good, but gold blasted 19% higher over this very span. Since gold stocks are far more risky than owning gold itself, there is no reason to own them if they can’t outperform gold. While gold only has price risk driven by its own supply and demand, gold stocks add geopolitical risks, geological risks, operational risks, and many others.

Gold stocks need to ultimately leverage and multiply gold’s returns to justify their enormous additional risks. While their leverage to gold has varied considerably in different uplegs in this bull, a long-term line in the sand is probably 2.0x. If gold stocks can’t at least double the underlying gains in gold, then investors are probably better off selling the gold stocks and using the proceeds to add to their foundational physical-gold holdings.

Between mid-September and early December, the HUI could only manage to leverage the awesome surge in gold by a horrendously bad 0.8x. This pathetic episode has understandably once again called the ongoing viability of the gold-stock recovery into question. There is no doubt that gold stocks have been seriously lagging gold’s advance of late, and this underperformance is unacceptable.

But considered within the context of the HGR uptrend, the seeming urgency of today’s gold-stock problems quickly fades. We’ve seen many similar episodes. Between the end of last year and early March, the HGR ground lower. Gold stocks were underperforming gold so similar fears to today’s erupted. Yet once the HGR slumped low enough to challenge support, the gold stocks rocketed higher again. In the last few weeks of March, the HUI soared 32%!

Following that surge, the HUI again started underperforming gold in April and drove the HGR lower. But once this key metric hit support, it was off to the races again for gold stocks. In May, the HUI shot another 33% higher! Then in June, July, and August, the HGR drifted sideways as the HUI couldn’t leverage gold’s gains at all. Again this looked really ominous in isolation, like a big structural gold-stock problem. But right after that drift, the HUI blasted 27% higher in the first couple weeks of September.

See the pattern here? Gold stocks are highly-speculative and have always moved in fits and starts. There are longer periods of consolidation or retreat relative to gold that are immediately followed by hard and fast periods of advance. Most of the time gold stocks don’t do much at all, but when they start moving they move. And the net result of all this ebbing and flowing is very clear in this chart, on balance the HUI continues to gain ground relative to gold.

Interestingly, this latest ebbing of the HUI’s fortunes has dragged the HGR back near support today. If this HGR uptrend holds, this implies that we will soon be due for another sharp gold-stock rally. I suspect this next one will drive the HGR back up to its resistance line and a new post-panic high. While not quite here yet, this coming HGR support approach should prove to be a fantastic buying opportunity.

We warned our subscribers that gold was very overbought before this latest retreat, including selling a couple of gold-stock trades at 130% and 118% realized gains in our weekly Zeal Speculator newsletter the very day the HUI topped in early December. They knew a pullback was coming, and were ready. And today we are preparing our subscribers to once again buy gold stocks aggressively when various buy signals including this HGR support approach are triggered in the coming weeks. It is an exciting time for gold-stock traders.

A HGR’s textbook-perfect uptrend that has defined this gold-stock recovery since the panic ended is all well and good. But will it persist? Is there any reason why gold stocks should continue to gain ground relative to gold? Actually there are a couple, an airtight fundamental argument leading into a powerful technical case for the HGR to continue its post-panic recovery.

In the stock markets, any stock’s long-term price is ultimately driven by the profits earned by the underlying company. If a company can grow its profits, its stock price will rise over the long term. Investors buying stocks are really purchasing fractional rights in the future profits streams of the companies they own. The greater those profits streams, the higher the companies’ stocks will be bid up by investors competing to own them.

Gold miners’ long-term profits are driven almost exclusively by the price of gold. The higher the prevailing gold price, the greater their profit margins on their existing operations. If a company can mine gold at a total cost of $600 per ounce, and this metal is selling for $900, it makes a $300 profit. But if gold only rises 33% to $1200, this company’s profits double to $600 per ounce. The earnings leverage inherent in producing commodities for relatively fixed prices leads to enormous profits growth in higher-price environments. In some cases gold-mining profits grow exponentially with the gold price!

In addition, higher prevailing gold prices make previously uneconomical ore deposits economical to mine. So gold miners can also increase their production at higher prices, further expanding their profits. If this secular gold bull continues, and its fundamentals strongly argue it will, then gold mining is going to get a lot more profitable. And higher profits always ultimately lead to higher stock prices, this is an immutable long-term law in the stock markets. Thus fundamentally, gold stocks have to continue higher.

And technically, they remain way too cheap relative to gold today. This next chart expands the HGR to a secular time frame since 2003. Prior to the once-in-a-lifetime discontinuity caused by the stock panic, the HGR traded in a well-defined secular range. As I pointed out a year ago as we emerged out of the panic, there is no reason why today’s gold-stock recovery won’t return the HGR to its pre-panic secular range.


20091218els101.jpg


Over the 5 years prior to 2008’s stock panic, the HGR tended to meander between 0.46x on the low side and 0.56x on the high side. This tight range led to an average pre-panic HGR of 0.511x (which was not skewed by extreme outliers). In other words, before the stock panic the HUI generally traded at about half the prevailing gold price. Since this persisted for 5 years, it was definitely fundamentally-undergirded.

At gold’s recent early-December interim high of $1215, this average HGR implies a HUI around 621. This is about 22% above the 511 actually seen that day gold peaked a couple weeks ago. But while the HUI was really underperforming gold compared to its bull precedent, the recovery trend certainly remains intact. Back during the panic, the HUI plunged to just 41% of where the average HGR suggested it should be.

But in early December, it was back up to 82% of average HGR levels. This shows a radical improvement in the HUI’s fortunes relative to gold over this past year. If you scroll back up to the first chart, this hypothetical HUI at the average HGR is rendered in yellow so you can compare it to the actual HUI in red. The massive gap between where the HUI is and where history suggests it should be has been gradually closing since the panic. The gold-stock recovery is very real, even relative to gold.

The stock panic that drove the HUI to its lowest levels relative to gold since this gold bull began in April 2001 was an epic anomaly. It created the gigantic discontinuity evident in this chart. But ever since the stock panic ended, the battered HGR has been gradually recovering. It is actually normalizing, relentlessly mean-reverting back towards its pre-panic average levels.

And this mean reversion is eminently logical. The fundamentals that drive gold-stock profits and hence stock prices are no different now than they were in the 5 years before the stock panic hit. Higher gold still leads to disproportionally-large gold-mining profits growth, and investors chase these profits by bidding up stock prices. While the panic scared away countless gold-stock investors, many are gradually coming back while other first-time gold-stock investors are rising up. Capital is returning to this sector.

So despite the inevitable periods of gold-stock underperformance like we have witnessed in recent months, and which intensified in recent weeks, the gold-stock recovery is very much alive and well. Gold-stock weakness is not a threat, but an opportunity. Prudent investors and speculators live for these times where gold stocks lag so far behind gold that we can buy in at excellent prices and ride the next fast surge higher. Opportunities to buy low in an ongoing bull are extremely valuable.

At Zeal, we continue to relentlessly study gold and the gold stocks as we have for the last decade. We are constantly analyzing these powerful bull markets from fundamental, technical, and sentimental perspectives in order to uncover excellent opportunities for our subscribers to profit. And it looks like another great buying op is rapidly approaching. For just $10 a month for our acclaimed monthly newsletter, you can share in the fruits of our hard work. Subscribe today, become an informed investor, and maximize your gold-stock trading profits!

The bottom line is gold stocks have been steadily recovering since the stock panic. And this is not only in nominal terms, but relative to gold itself. While there are discouraging periods of gold-stock underperformance like we’ve witnessed recently, they are par for the course. Gold stocks have always moved in fits and starts, this is nothing new. The critical observation is they are recovering on balance.

And despite their huge gains since the panic, gold stocks still remain far below their long-term levels relative to gold. This suggests the gold-stock recovery will continue, that HUI levels will continue to normalize relative to gold. Just as it was a year ago, this mean-reversion trade is still one of the highest-probability-for-success bets available in the entire commodities-stock realm. Don’t miss out on it.


Adam Hamilton, CPA
www.Zealllc.com
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=774643#774643 schrieb:
golden_times schrieb am 26.12.2009, 20:26 Uhr[/url]"]Exploration in Emerging Environments

It’s a well known fact that geologists like to go to the bar after work and drink beer. At the bar all we talk about is what we do all day long, i.e., work. It’s no secret that secrets become less secretive after a few brews, news and rumor from the bush are exchanged freely, stock tips get traded, maps, sections, and cartoons are scribbled onto bar napkins, and other patrons are disturbed by loud alcohol-fueled arguments as the session wears on.

But these nightly confabulations are an integral part of our business. More exploration and mining deals are put together in dark and dingy pubs after work than in the corporate boardroom or on the golf course combined.

A recent topic of conversation at the bar has been the dearth of success in finding giant ore deposits during this six year exploration bull market. The junior resource sector is a boom and bust business driven largely by the commodities cycle and especially the price of gold. The current bull cycle started in mid-2003 when an ounce of gold went over $300 and stuck..


http://www.24hgold.com/english/news...G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Mickey+Fulp
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=775887#775887 schrieb:
golden_times schrieb am 02.01.2010, 13:05 Uhr[/url]"]Why Gold Will be the “Greatest Trade Ever

December 28, 2009
By Peter Krauth, Contributing Editor, Money Morning


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Forget about all the forecasts being made for 2010. Here's my prediction for 2015: An entirely new name - John A. Paulson - will grace the coveted top of the annual Forbes billionaires list.

And the gap between Paulson and the runner-up billionaire will be huge.

Everyone knows that Bill Gates and Warren Buffet are America's - and the world's - two richest men. But the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 was not kind to either of them, eradicating $17 billion of their combined net worth.

On that famed list, at No. 33, is where you'll find Paulson today. The hedge-fund manager's financial acumen led to what is now being called the "the greatest trade ever." By shorting the subprime mortgage market, Paulson & Co. Inc. generated a $15 billion gain.

Paulson's personal net worth of $6 billion is impressive in its own right. But over the next several years, I believe that Paulson's trading savvy will vault him into the top spot.

And the vehicle that will take him there is gold.


Going For the Gold

Paulson's latest foray says a lot about how he intends to further multiply his own net worth, as well as that of his clients.

That foray will focus on gold, he said during an address to the Japan Society in New York earlier this month.

"As an investor, I became very concerned about having my assets denominated in U.S. dollars," Paulson told his audience. "So I looked for another currency in which to denominate my assets in. I feel that gold is the best currency."

As of June 30, gold and gold-related assets accounted for 46% of the Paulson firm's total holdings - a colossal position that flies in the face of traditional portfolio-diversification theory and position sizing. Yet I expect this will help him generate a brand new "greatest trade ever."

It's also worth noting that Paulson recently announced his firm's plan for a Jan. 1 launch of a dedicated gold fund. The fund will invest in gold stocks and gold derivatives in a way that will enable it to outperform the price of gold. Paulson is committing $250 million of his own capital to this new investment vehicle.
This all adds up to one enormous wager on gold. But Paulson's track record and reputation for research diligence make it impossible to ignore.

The story behind the killing that Paulson's company made on the subprime-mortgage crash - and the lengths that Paulson and star analyst Paolo Pellegrini went to create the profit opportunity - is as gripping as any detective story.

Although it's now referred to as the "greatest trade" ever, it certainly wasn't the easiest position to take. Paulson and his cohorts watched from the sidelines as the housing industry zoomed through four years of unprecedented growth. When Paulson bet against the bubble, and continued to increase his position even as housing continued its surge, he found that many longstanding customers that had profited nicely from Paulson & Co. refused to go along.

Paulson, they felt, was flat out wrong.

Is that happening again? After all, there's a long list of pundits who are right now saying that gold is in a bubble that could burst at any time. Ignore them. This array of "talking heads" will inflict irreparable damage on your portfolio.

Besides, Paulson isn't alone in his investment thesis.

In a recent interview, author and global-investing guru Jim Rogers said that "during the course of the bull market [gold] is going to go much higher, it is certainly not a bubble yet." To underscore his point, Rogers said that "I don't think this is the top," and said that "I'm not selling under any circumstances."

Also in this camp is Victor "Trader Vic" Sperandeo, whose 40 years of market experience has included stints with George Soros and Leon Cooperman.
"Well, I'm on record across the world as saying that gold is the best investment in the world for the next two to three years," Sperandeo said. "If you go back to its lows, and you compound where [gold] is today, it's about 6.5% compounded. That isn't a bubble."


Where Does Gold Go Next?

More recently, however, gold has experienced an unprecedented run. At one point, for example, it sprinted from $1,050 to $1,218 in under 30 days flat.

That's an impressive 16% gain. Between late October and early December, the precious yellow metal saw 14 record closes in 17 days. So its recent pullback is not only unsurprising, it's healthy.

Don't forget that gold's clocked a positive gain every year since 2001. Yet gold's run is far from over; rather, it's just getting warmed up...

My research tells me we're currently in what I've labeled as "Stage Two" of the current bull market in gold. Stage Two begins when gold decouples from the dominant currency (something that's clearly already taking place against the U.S. dollar). The yellow metal then rises against most other currencies, as investment demand kicks in.

As they attempt to forecast gold's next move, market observers often rely on the U.S. dollar as their chief barometer.

That's a futile game.

While the greenback does have an impact on the price of gold, it's more correlated to shorter-term price movements. Comparing the U.S. dollar's exchange rate to other currencies is only mildly helpful. The reason: Because America is such a big consumer of global goods, other nations will move to devalue their currencies to make sure that their exports remain competitive.

The best barometer, then, is the price of gold versus all "fiat" currencies, since gold is "real" money and those other currencies aren't. A good proxy here is the U.S. Dollar Index, which is composed of euros, Japanese yen, British pounds, Canadian dollars, Swedish kronas, and Swiss francs.

Gold easily surpassed its previous 2008 high against this basket of currencies. We are clearly on a path of competitive fiat money devaluation. Only two years ago, one ounce of gold bought just eight units of the U.S. Dollar index. In early 2008, that ratio had spiked to 14 units. After recently peaking at 16, an ounce of gold still buys 15 units. Look for the upward trajectory to continue - and to do so for the long haul.

There's only one possible conclusion here: Gold's value is rising against all major fiat currencies.


The Growing Global Demand for Gold

Another hallmark of Stage Two in a gold bull market is when sophisticated investors take positions of their own.

Investors in Asia, Europe and many other global investors have a much stronger affinity for gold, and understand its ability to preserve wealth. Experienced and professional investors alike make their portfolio allocations at this point in the cycle, and Paulson's just one of several institutional investors who exemplify this out point of view.

The purchase of 200 tons of International Monetary Fund (IMF) gold by India's central bank in late October helped propel gold to its recent record highs. Given that this was the single largest purchase of gold by a central bank in the past 30 years, its dramatic effect is justified.

But two aspects of this landmark transaction are especially noteworthy. First of all, India was comfortable enough with gold at $1,045 to part with $6.5 billion - no small outlay, even for a central bank. And second, India chose gold over unbacked fiat currencies.

Other growing global economies have also been hoarding physical bullion, says the World Gold Council, which forecasts that 2009 will see a new trend asserted: Central banks will become net gold buyers for years to come.


Also Fueling the Gold Bull...

I've already made a strong case for gold. But those aren't the only catalysts pushing gold higher. In fact, here are a few more:
Since its 1980 peak, gold's only up 65%, while inflation is up 175% and stocks have gained 900%: there's plenty of ground to make up.

Scores of junior gold explorers and miners still trade below book value; many are still too cheap.
Gold production peaked in 2001 and has been falling since that time, meaning that the supply-and-demand dynamic points to much higher prices for gold.


Sovereign-debt defaults are a growing risk, against which gold is the best insurance (see Greece, Ireland, Spain and other recent ratings downgrades)
There's growing interest in gold. But the masses have yet to join in; when the typical investor and consumer starts to view gold as an essential holding, the price of gold will begin a near-vertical ascent - a near-mania/near-bubble scenario that could cause gold to more than double from current prices.
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=775892#775892 schrieb:
golden_times schrieb am 02.01.2010, 14:04 Uhr[/url]"]Gold: The Ultimate Wealth Reserve

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news...565116G10020&redirect=false&contributor=FOFOA

20091231PLA16581.jpg


What is the main difference between a commodity and a currency? Consumption! A currency circulates through the economy as a medium of exchange but is not consumed. A commodity is a useful basic economic good that is produced, traded in common units and prices all over the world, and then consumed by industry or individuals.

And what is the difference between a currency and a wealth asset? Time and appreciation! The main difference is the amount of time that each is held. A currency is earned and spent in a short timeframe and wealth assets are accumulated and held for longer timeframes. Here is a list of some common wealth assets:

Endurable Wealth Assets
Real Estate
Fine Art
Antiques
Collectibles
Gold
Other Precious Metals
Gemstones
Rare Classic Cars

Securities
Stocks (Equity Ownership)
Bonds (Debt Ownership)
CD's (Currency Time Deposits)

What separates "endurable wealth assets" from the rest of the physical world of consumer goods is their tendency to appreciate against the currency. Take classic cars for example. They usually appreciate versus the dollar while regular every-day cars depreciate as soon as you drive them off the lot! The same goes for Fine Art versus Not-So-Fine Art, and antiques versus their contemporary equivalents.

It all comes down to time... and appreciation over time. This is the difference between Wealth, Currency, and the rest of the real consumer world. The goal of wealth is, and always has been, to retain and/or gain purchasing power during the test of time.

But what is Purchasing Power? In a world where our currency is an ever-depreciating piece of paper such a concept is difficult to measure. I suppose it depends mostly on what you will need and want to purchase in the future when the time comes. And with a world full of things to buy and always new things coming to market, how can one possibly track such purchasing power accurately?

As a whole, we (the human race, the marketplace) are constantly measuring our currency and our wealth against a world full of physical things to buy. You see, there are two sides of this fence. On one side is our money, on the other is the things we buy. And as a group we measure the two sides against each other as time passes to make sure that the present and future division of the real physical world matches up with the currency and wealth scheme we are running parallel to it.

20091231PLA16583.jpg


This process of measuring the two sides of the fence against each other is a very complex process, perhaps too complex for even a super-computer. Both sides of the fence experience the push and pull of supply and demand. Currency is in constant demand as men work in order to feed their families and, because currency is only held for a short timeframe, it is also in constant supply. So a very high, almost infinite demand for currency can be quite easily met with a relatively small supply when time is factored in.

Imagine an island of 100 men with a money supply of 1,000 sea shells. That's 10 sea shells for each man. But over the course of a year each man on the island works and earns an annual salary of 100 sea shells. So the total economic power of the island over a year is 10,000 sea shells. We could say that the GDP of the island is 10,000 ss. We could also say that the demand for sea shells is 10,000 over the period of one year and that demand is met by a supply of only 1,000 sea shells.

Now imagine that ownership of a piece of real estate on this island costs about 2 year's salary, and that there are enough pieces of land for each man to either own or rent one. So each piece of property might cost about 200 ss. The entire island's worth of residential real estate would be in the ballpark of 20,000 sea shells, twice the GDP. Yet the money supply still remains at 1,000 sea shells and that limited supply somehow meets demand.

The reason this works is because sea shells are the currency. They circulate and pass from hand to hand over a short timeframe. This is called velocity and it has the exact same effect on the value of a single sea shell as does the size of the money supply. On our island 1,000 sea shells change hands 10 times per year creating an island GDP of 10,000 ss. If they changed hands 20 times a year the GDP would be 20,000 ss. Or if we doubled the money supply to 2,000 sea shells that changed hands 10 times per year it would also yield a 20,000 ss GDP. So velocity and money supply of the currency have exactly the same effect.

This is the main difference between currency and wealth on their side of the fence as we measure their value against the other side of physical things. Currency has a fast velocity of circulation while wealth items have a very slow velocity. We hold a currency unit for maybe a month while we hold wealth items for years and years. So wealth items, as a store of purchasing power measured against the physical world, carry an almost 1 to 1 value ratio across the fence while high-speed currency carries a fractional value.

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It is my contention that the denouement of our current state of affairs will carry gold from the commodity zone, across the fence, over to its ancient role as THE wealth reserve par excellence, bypassing completely the velocity-suppressed state of transactional currency. And that this shift will alter all value perceptions in the most astonishing ways one can imagine.

Consider that it is the bankers and central bankers that have gradually compressed the spring that is gold wealth first into velocity-bound circulating currency coins, then into fractionally reserved currency and finally into the mold of a common commodity, all the while protecting their own hoard and calling it a "reserve". What do they know that we don't? It is simple really. They know that eventually the spring must explode.

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In the meantime, these same bankers have made a KILLING selling us all on the idea that paper indentures are the real value to be had. That by indenturing each other in perpetual debt servitude we can, as a planet, rise to a new and unlimited level of wealth in a world of limited resources. But the problem is that all this debt has now finally exceeded its own ability to continue existing parallel to a productive world. It can only exist now by Ponzi-cannibalizing itself to its own end. This is where we are today. The spring is held down by only a thread.

To get a handle on the potential energy stored in this "spring", let's take a look at how gold in its commodity mold compares to just one small piece of the rest of the physical world... oil. The total of all "proven" oil reserves in the ground are about 1.2 trillion barrels. Currently oil in the ground is trading at around $15/barrel. So the oil "slice of the pie" is worth around 18 Trillion USD. [1] Meanwhile all the gold ever mined is around 160,000 tonnes or about $5.5 Trillion at today's price. [2]

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So confined to its central bank-commissioned commodity prison all the gold in the world is only worth about ONE-THIRD of all the oil in the world! Or said another way, oil could corner the gold market THREE TIMES OVER. This is what Another meant when he said:

Oil is the only commodity in the world that was large enough for gold to hide in.


Here is the full context of his statement:

Date: Sun Oct 05 1997 21:29
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:

Everyone knows where we have been. Let's see where we are going!

It was once said that "gold and oil can never flow in the same direction". If the current price of oil doesn't change soon we will no doubt run out of gold.

This line of thinking is very real in the world today but it is never discussed openly. You see oil flow is the key to gold flow. It is the movement of gold in the hidden background that has kept oil at these low prices. Not military might, not a strong US dollar, not political pressure, no it was real gold. In very large amounts. Oil is the only commodity in the world that was large enough for gold to hide in. No one could make the South African / Asian connection when the question was asked, "how could LBMA do so many gold deals and not impact the price". That's because oil is being partially used to pay for gold!

You see it was oil in the ground that was used to secure gold in the ground through the paper gold market of the 90's. But those "gold in the ground contracts" would ultimately be backed by above-ground gold from the central bank vaults, at least to oil they would, or else oil agreements would be similarly discarded. This was the message Another brought. His insider knowledge that explained not only the volume explosion on the LBMA, but also the low ($300) price of gold happening at the same time as physical was drying up to the point that central banks had to provide supply.

People wondered how the physical gold market could be "cornered" when its currency price wasn't rising and no shortages were showing up? The CBs were becoming the primary suppliers by replacing openly held gold with CB certificates. This action has helped keep gold flowing during a time that trading would have locked up.

In my last post, Gold: The Ultimate Un-Bubble, I made a few predictions about the purchasing power of gold after the restoration of its ancient role. But probably the most important line in that post was this:

The price of gold is completely arbitrary.

Understanding this concept is the key to understanding coming events that will confound almost any observer. So let's expand it:

The value of gold relative to the value of anything and everything on the planet Earth is completely arbitrary.

Or:

The value of gold is completely arbitrary.

Gold is neither expensive nor cheap. It is theoretically free. It is a monetary conversion, like buying a Treasury or a money market fund. To the Giants, do you think gold is a game of "how big is my slice of the pie?" Or is it "how much is my slice of the pie worth?" Is it better to have a 15% slice of a commodity pie, or a 5% slice of the wealth pie? Is it more likely that all the gold in the world combined, when used as a wealth reserve, will be worth a large percentage of everything? Or that it is worth only 30% of the known oil reserves?

My friends and I are Physical Gold Advocates. We own physical outright and do so employing the same reasoning mankind used in owning gold throughout most of history. However, there is a major difference between our perceptions of this historic reasoning and the current Western perceptions so many of you are attuned to. Our's is not a mission to unseat the current academic culture concerning money teachings; rather it is to present the historic and present day views of the majority of gold owners around the world. Those of simple thought and not of Western education. Plain people that, in bits and pieces, own and use the majority of above ground gold.

Most contemporary Western thought is centered around gold being money. That is; gold inherently has a money use or money function; built into it as part of the original creation. This thought presents a picture of ancient man grasping a nugget of gold, found on the ground, and understanding immediately that this is a defined "medium of exchange"; money to buy something with. This simple picture and analysis mostly grew in concept during the banking renaissance of the middle ages and is used to bastardize the gold story to this day. Even the term "money", as it is used in modern Bible interpretations, is convoluted to fit our current understandings.

Much in the same way we watch social understandings of music, literature, culture and dress evolve to fit current lifestyles, so too did gold have a money concept applied to it as it underwent its own evolution in the minds of political men. This is indeed the long running, background story of our Gold Trail; an evolution, not of gold itself, but of our own perceptions of this wealth of ages. A evolving message of gold that is destine to change world commerce as it has never changed before.


Onward my friends

In ancient times there was no concept of money as we know it today. Let me emphasize; "as we perceive money today". Back then, anywhere and everywhere, all things known to people were in physical form. All trade and commerce was physical and direct; barter was how all trade was done.

If one brought a cart to market, loaded with 20 bowls and 20 gold nuggets, he used those physical items to trade for other valued goods. The bowls and gold had different tradable value; as did every other thing at the market. Indeed, gold brought more in trade than bowls. Also true; if a barrel of olive oil was in short supply, it might bring even more in trade than all the gold in the market square.

The understanding we reach for here is that nothing at the market place was seen as a defined money value. All goods were seen simply as tradable, barterable items. Gold included. Truly, in time, some items found favor for their unique divisible value, greater worth and ease of transport. Gems, gold, silver and copper among others, all fit this description. These items especially, and more so gold, became the most tradable, barterable goods and began to exclusively fill that function.

But the main question is: was there money in that market place? Sure, but it was not in physical form. Money, back then and today, was a remembered value in the minds of men. Cumbersome it may have been, but even back then primitive man had an awesome brain and could retain the memory values of thousands of trades. In every case, able to recall the approximate per item value of each thing traded. That value, on the brain, was the money concept we use today.

Eventually gold climbed to the top of in the most tradable good category. Was gold a medium of exchange? Yes, but to their own degree, so were the bowls. Was gold a store of value? Yes, but to a degree, so were dinner plates. Was gold divisible into equal lesser parts to define lesser barter units? Yes, but to a degree one could make and trade smaller drinking cups and lesser vessels of oil. Perhaps gold became the most favored tradable good because the shear number of goods for good traded made a better imprint on ones memory; the worth of a chunk of gold in trade became the value money unit stored in the brain.

Seeing all of this in our modern basic applications of "money concept", almost every physical item that naturally existed or was produced then also held, to a lesser degree, gold's value in market barter. But most of us would have a hard time remembering a bowls value and thinking of a bowl as money. The reason this is such a stretch for the modern imagination is because bowls, like physical gold, never contained or were used in our "concept of money". Back then, as also today, all physical items are simple barterable, tradable goods; not of the money concept itself. Their remembered tradable value was the money.

Money, or better said "the money concept", and all physical goods occupy two distinct positions in our universe of commerce and trade. They have an arms length relationship with each other, but reside on different sides of the fence and in different portions of the brain.

For example: say I take a bowl to the mint and place an official government money stamp on the underside. The bowl now is stamped at $1.00. Then I take one tiny piece of gold to the mint; one 290th of an ounce or at today's market a dollar's worth. They stamp that gold as $1.00. Which
physical item would be money? Answer; neither.

Using ancient historic reasoning and the logic of a simple life; the bowl could be taken to the market square and bartered for another good. Perhaps a dinner plate. In that barter trade, we would most likely reach an understanding; that the "bowl for plate trade" imprinted our memory with what a digital, numeric dollar concept is worth. Again, the 1.00 unit was only stamped on the bottom for reference. While the dollar concept is only a rateable unit number to compare value to; like saying a painting is rated from one to ten when judging appearance.

We could do the exact same thing without 1/ 290th ounce piece of gold as with the bowl above. In the process we again would walk away with the knowledge of what a $1.00 unit of money value was worth in trade. The physical gold itself was not the money in trade; the value of the barter itself created the actual money value relationship. Again, the most important aspect for us to grasp here is this:

----- The use of physical gold in trade is not the use of money in trade. We do not spend or trade a money unit, like the dollar, to define the value of gold and goods: we barter both goods and gold to define the worth of that trade as a remembered association to the dollar money unit. That remembered worth, that value, is not an actual physical thing. A dollar bill nor an ounce of legal tender gold represent money in physical form. Money is a remembered value relationship we assign to any usable money unit. The worth of a money unit is an endless mental computation of countless barter trades done around the world. Money is a remembered value, a concept, that we use to judge physical trading value. -----


Onward

Naturally, for gold to advance as the leading tradable good it had to have a numerical unit for us to associate tradable value with. We needed a unit function to store our mental money value in. In much the same way we use a simple paper dollar today to represent a remembered value only. Dollars have no value at all except for our associating remembered trading value with them. A barrel of oil is worth $22.00, not because the twenty two bills have value equal to that barrel of oil: rather we remember that a barrel of oil will trade for the same amount of natural gas that also relates to those same 22 units. Money is an associated value in our heads. It's not a physical item.

The first numerical money was not paper. Nor was it gold or silver; it was a relation of tradable value to weight. A one ounce unit that we could associate the trading value to. It was in the middle ages that bankers first started thinking that gold itself was a "fixed" money unit. Just because its weight was fixed.

In reality, a one ounce weight of gold was remembered as tradable for thousands of different value items at the market place. The barter value of gold nor the gold itself was our money, it was the tradable value of a weight unit of gold that we could associate with that barter value. We do the very same thing today with our paper money; how many dollar prices can you remember when you think a minute?

This political process of fixing money value with the singular weight of gold locked gold into a never ending money vs gold value battle that has ruined more economies, governments and societies than anything. This is where the very first "Hard Money Socialist" began. Truly, to this day they think their ideas are the saving grace of the money world. It isn't now and never was then.

When investors today speak of using gold coin as their money during a full blown banking breakdown, what are they really speaking of?

In essence, they would be bartering and trading real goods for real goods. The mention of spending gold money is a complete misconception in Western minds. Many would bring their memories of past buying with them and that is where the trading values would begin. Still, it would take millions of trades before the "market place" could associate a real trading value to the various weight units of gold. It took mankind hundreds of years to balance the circulation of gold against its barterable value. Only then could a unit weight value become a known money concept. In that process, in ancient times, gold had a far higher "lifestyle" value than it has seen in a thousand years. This value, in the hands of private owners, is where gold is going next.

If you are following closely, now, we can begin to see how easy it is for the concepts of modern money to convolute our value and understanding of gold. It is here that the thought of a free market in physical was formed. Using the relationship of a free physical market in gold, we will be able to relate gold values to millions to goods and services that are currency traded the world over. Instead of having governments control gold's value to gauge currency creation; world opinion will be free to associate the values of barter gold against barter currency. In this will be born a free money concept in the minds of men and governments. A better knowledge and understanding of the value of all things.
-FOA (2001)

What does "Gold is Wealth" really mean? It means that gold, all of the gold, is set parallel, on the opposite side of the fence from the rest of the world of consumer goods and endurable wealth assets, as the numéraire of wealth in its role as the one physical holding par excellence for the purpose of preserved purchasing power over long timeframes. That is, denominating global wealth in its physical form only, non-fractionally reserved, non-transactionally diminished through the velocity of exchanges, but in its stationary, one-to-one relationship with the rest of the world's wealth, plus or minus a few lesser competitors.


What's next

Time and volatility are now the greatest threats to the current global fiat regime. As time passes volatility will rise. Volatility means price action in BOTH directions, with only one possible conclusion. For this you must be mentally prepared to not end up a victim of meaningless signals.

The current façade of stability is highly manipulated and controlled, but cracks are opening and we are starting to see through the curtain to the wizard at the controls on the other side. Things are not as they seem. Signals are much more confusing in times like these.

Debt is the very essence of fiat. But as debt fails, the fiat currency can spike sharply in response. Expect the end game to look very different from what you have been told. The dollar as rated by the USDX, a flawed rating system, may rise briefly to something like 150, a level certainly not expected for a currency on the verge of a hyperinflationary collapse! The COMEX gold price, which is really just the price of paper, may drop to $200 or lower before trading is halted.

You can expect this kind of "spiritual experience" price volatility to be heralded as proof that the goldbugs were wrong all along. But don't be fooled. Many a strong hand will turn weak at the worst possible time. Many a bug will be lured by the warm glowing light only to be electrocuted. Don't be one of them.

Remember that ANY volatility is the enemy of the system. Even the price movements that don't go your way are still bringing down a system that has become a complete farce. Hold tight your gold wealth for a brighter day comes. The world of paper debt is, and has been, circling the edge of a lavatory vortex from which there is no escape.


The “PRICE” of short-term paper simply “cannot” be seen to go above PAR …as that in itself rings the death-knell of the System.

Yield in the short-end is essentially determined by how much you pay NOW ..to get back Par over the time period. When you pay $1001 to get back $1000 in 3 months …you're in negative yield. Of itself an oxymoron …and declaring for all the World to see …there IS no monetary Future.

Can ONLY happen in a “Global” Fiat construct FOFOA …the likes of which holds sway at present.

This System is unique in that we've "never" had an arrangement in place before where there was "no escape" monetarily speaking.

In the past, when the economic situation in (say) the UK deteriorated, one simply transferred to a stronger currency ...or Gold ...or Silver ...as they were all monetary functionaries of specie ...or at least "some" of the available currencies were.

We now have the situation where the entire System is stressed beyond coping ...with the $US/Oil configuration back-stopping said System.

It (the REALITY) will permeate ALL facets of "future-derived" valuations FOFOA. Bonds, Stocks, Real-estate ...and even our beloved PM's. (as they are NOW priced with a futures-leaning bias)

The closer you get to the Kernel however (short end of the curve ...<6mo)>DX

...that's why it's SOOO important NOW to dis-associate mentally from the $US pricing of PM's.

We KNOW they're "worth" more ...what we have to realise is ...they're essentially "priceless" under the current regime ...despite what the current market tells us.

What is being priced as Gold ...TODAY ...and what you hold in your hand ...are vastly different. (but you already KNOW that!
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=775893#775893 schrieb:
golden_times schrieb am 02.01.2010, 14:11 Uhr[/url]"]Deep In Derivatives or Dumbed-Down Reporting?

Rob_Kirby.jpg


On December 29, 2009 The New York Post [josh.kosman@nypost.com] published an article titled, Deep in derivatives, where scribe Josh Kosman ‘took-a-shot’ at explaining the ABSURDITY of the bind boggling derivatives positions amassed by financial behemoths such as J.P. Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. In an attempt to explain how dangerously systemically-interconnected derivatives makes ALL banks, Kosman began;

“The amounts are so large that if the swaps and other derivative contracts the banks broker go bad because the parties on either side of the deal collapse, the banks could be in trouble.”

Kosman then goes on with some very superficial analysis of the latest Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s, Quarterly Derivatives Report, attempting to scope out the magnitude of the excesses;

“As of Sept. 30, Goldman posted $42 billion in derivatives and had $115 million in assets.
JPMorgan brokered $79 billion in derivatives against $1.7 billion in assets as of Sept. 30.”

Finally, Kosman speaks of ‘a source’ close to Goldman who allegedly said or told him,

“ [the] numbers [in the Quarterly Derivative Report] include only Goldman Sachs [Commercial] Bank, and not the larger holding company Goldman Sachs Group, so the entire firm has less risk than it appears to in the OCC report. Goldman's investment banking is handled outside the federally insured Goldman Sachs Bank. "


Factual Inaccuracies

First, Kosman states and characterizes the institutions involved in these derivatives trades as “brokers” when, in fact, they participate as PRINCIPALS. The amount of risk involved when one trades as a principal is materially larger than when one acts as a broker or agent. Of course, if Kosman had bothered to read the rest of the Report, he would have known that these trade COULD NOT HAVE BEEN BROKERED because the report tells us there are empirically NO END USERS FOR THESE PRODUCTS:

20091231CLA16261.png


Second, Kosman reports that J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs reported their outstanding derivatives positions as 42 and 79 Billion respectively. THIS IS WRONG. The real amounts are measured in TRILLIONS. Maybe Mr. Kosman cannot conceive of the ABSURDITY of these institutions have proprietary positions in the TRILLIONS and thought it was a typo?

And finally, Mr. Kosman reported the derivatives holdings of J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs at the Commercial Bank level while citing “a source” close to Goldman who seemingly had knowledge of “larger positions” held at the Holding Company level. Once again, if Mr. Kosman had actually read the OCC Report, he would not have needed to obtain such information from “sources close to Goldman” – he would have spotted the aggregate derivatives reported at the Holding Company level in the same OCC Report on the very next page [Pg. 23]:

20091231CLA16262.png


Putting aside the notion that Mr. Kosman “missed” the larger point that we actually get some visibility on the constituent parts of the derivatives reported at the Commercial Bank Level and we get ABSOLUTELY ZERO breakout on the TRILLIONS of AGGREGATES presented as a lump-sum at the Holding Company Level - I bring all of this up for another very good reason which seems to have escaped our beloved Mr. Kosman: Namely, the ABSURD amounts of derivatives these financial behemoths are swinging around – absent ANY OBSERVABLE END USERS – are CLEARLY being used for the expressed purpose of controlling / rigging Interest Rates, Currencies as well as Metals and other Commodities Prices – for the simple reason that THERE’S NOTHING ELSE THAT IT COULD BE.

The ABSURDITY of it all is so very clearly demonstrated in Mr. Kosman’s inability to grapple with the scope of the numbers in front of his own eyes – tens and hundreds of TRILLIONS not BILLIONS..
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=775894#775894 schrieb:
golden_times schrieb am 02.01.2010, 14:44 Uhr[/url]"]2010 Preview: Commodities

December 31, 2009 | about: DGL / FXC / GLD / IAU / UDN / UUP

seeking-alpha.jpg


Investors like myself tend to get a little romantic about gold.

After all, we’re in the midst of the greatest bull market in history since 2001. It’s hard not to love gold. Sure, it pays you squat in income. But the dollar also pays you nothing and even if it did, when adjusted for its long-term decline vis-à-vis gold and hard currencies— what are you left with?


The dollar is dead money.

It also shares this role with the other drunks at the currency bar; only on a relative scale, the EUR and the rest are a bit better.

Still, since 2005 all currencies are declining against gold…

Since I expect interest rate volatility to emerge in 2010, I also expect a more subdued environment for gold and silver. Higher rates, if only temporary, will hurt gold and silver. Evidence of this price action already began in mid-December.

But as we approach the second half of the year bonds will rally and so will most commodities, including the metals. I just think it’ll be a little bumpy over the first half.

By 2015, give or take a year or two, I think gold and silver will peak. By that time, prices should be about $2,500 or more for gold and $75 an ounce or more for silver. Sound outlandish? Eight years ago I forecasted similar projections at numerous international seminars; people don’t look at me like I’m crazy anymore.

Unfortunately, the last super-cycle for gold and silver will also coincide with a major conflict, crises or crash across world markets, sparking the next global recession or worse. That will be the time to sell gold and silver. But it’s still not too late to buy gold or silver at these prices.

In general, my favorite commodities in 2010 include the grains, coffee, cocoa, soybean and palm oil. I also like gold and silver but believe 2010 will be a moderate year for the metals, meaning maybe a 10% to 15% gain. I’m neutral-to-bearish on crude oil but like natural gas.


Currencies (Specifically the Dollar…)

Congress and America’s politicians must literally live on another planet.

These guys and dolls just keep on spending with no clear understanding about the long-term fiscal consequences. Someone should show Congress what a buck bought back in 1970 and what it buys now.

Of course, spending like mad goes back decades and was escalated by Reagan until Bush Jr. took the booby-prize. Now we have Obama and the financial crisis he inherited. What a mess…


Here’s why 2009 was the Year of Dollar-Bashing

The dollar is hated by most investors – in a way it’s similar to their romantic relationship with gold, only in reverse.

The dollar might post a rally in 2010 on higher interest rate expectations and, possibly, a blowup or a renewed banking crisis in Europe, which would be dollar bullish. Personally, I’d use any significant U.S. dollar rally as an opportunity to unload and buy gold, silver, Norwegian kroner, Canadian dollars and the Chinese yuan, which you can do through currency synthetics at Everbank.

The CAD, by the way, is flat in December versus the surging American dollar while most other currencies are down sharply; that’s a bullish sign for the Canuck buck.

What would make me turn bullish on the U.S. dollar?

Budget surpluses like the mid-1990s, a deficit VAT to reduce some of that never-ending red ink and less government in Washington. Also, U.S. military withdrawals in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Ultimately though, I have zero confidence in the dollar. Its best days are numbered. The American financial model is redundant and Asia is where the big money lies this century. Asia is now largely a creditor region – similarly to the United States after WW II.

It would be prudent for investors to follow the path of those nations with surplus currencies harboring low-to-no external deficits and a high savings rate. The dollar, the reserve system and the global exchange-rate mechanism have been dysfunctional for more than three decades. And at some point, another currency will challenge the dollar for supremacy. Like all economic confrontations, this could likely result in a crisis, conflict and, ultimately, war. Such is the history of nations.
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=775897#775897 schrieb:
golden_times schrieb am 02.01.2010, 14:49 Uhr[/url]"]BALTIC DRY DOING BETTER

The best performers in 2009; forget gold and copper, garlic's where it's at

In dollar terms the price of gold is up 24%; in renminbi, the increase was 31%.


Author: Rhona O'Connell
Posted: Thursday , 31 Dec 2009


http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page31?oid=95132&sn=Detail

LONDON -

Those of us who love nothing better than a good meal may find that we will be forking out rather more for some of the vital raw ingredients in future as the price of garlic has rocketed this year. Cultivation of the plant (part of the lily family) is believed to date back to Neolithic times in central Asia and it has a long-established history of medicinal use going back to at least 3,000 BC in Egypt. It is widely regarded as a natural "super-drug" and is currently believed in China to be one of the most effective ways of staving off swine flu. Indeed if some of its advocates are to be believed, it will cure just about anything.

China typically produces more than 50% of the world's garlic and the country's reduction in its garlic planting programme this year as a result of low prices in 2008, plus domestic concerns about swine flu in particular, means that in parts of China the price of garlic has risen more than forty-fold during 2009, although in Beijing the price increase has been much more moderate, at just 15-20 times. It is also fair to say that speculative activity has been responsible for a good part of the increase. Despite the fact that Chinese garlic prices are substantially lower than those in Europe and the US, imports of Chinese garlic into the latter have come down substantially this year as the cost to US consumers has tripled.

This really puts gold quite into the shade. In dollar terms, the gold price has gained just 24% since the start of the year, while in renminbi the increase has been 31%. This has made it the under-performer among the precious metals, and leaves it some way behind some of the base metals. The star performer from a range of asset classes has been the Baltic Dry Freight Index, which has almost tripled over the year - although its fall in 2008 was precipitous as it lost 93% of its value over the year and is still only standing at 25% of its late December peak. The index, measuring freight rates, is a good measure of how international trade is shaping up and as such its recovery is a tangible reflection of the improvement in the world's economy - slow though that may be.

The accompanying chart shows that, while gold may have been the underperformer last year it has generated much better returns over the past two years, with the major asset classes coming under severe pressure as the financial crisis developed and investors moved towards gold as a long term hedge against financial risk. The high correlation between the S+P 500 and the oil price is interesting as this too reflects economic expectations; over the course of 2009 the correlation between these two was a very high 91%, while that between gold and the $:€ rate was 74%.


091231%20rhona%20o'connell.JPG
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=776471#776471 schrieb:
dukezero schrieb am 05.01.2010, 06:00 Uhr[/url]"]Thema: Think-Tank: Chinas Wirtschaft wird im 9,5% wachsen
Emfis News Am: 04.01.2010 09:05:14 Gelesen: 3 # 1 @
Peking 04.01.2010 Die Wirtschaft Chinas, wird in diesem Jahr voraussichtlich um etwa 9,5 Prozent wachsen, so die aktuelle Veröffentlichung des State Council's Development Research Centre in der China Economic Times. Damit würde man um einiges über das von der Regierung angestrebte Minimalziel von 8 Prozent liegen, welches entscheidend für die Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen und die soziale Stabilität angesehen wird.

Für das Jahr 2010 prognostizierte die Asian Development Bank ein Wirtschaftswachstum für China in Höhe von 8,9 Prozent und der Internationale Währungsfonds von 9 Prozent, EMFIS berichtete.

Chinas Wirtschaft wuchs im dritten Quartal 2009 um 8,9 Prozent, der bisher stärkste Anstieg des vergangenen Jahres, nach 7,9 Prozent im zweiten und 6,1 Prozent im ersten Quartal, was das langsamste Tempo in mehr als einem Jahrzehnt war.

Die weltweit drittgrößte Wirtschaft wird durch ein zweistelliges Wachstum von Investitionen in Immobilien und einer milden Inflation getragen, ist man sich im Regierungs- Think-Tank sicher.

Laut dem Ökonomen des Centers, Zhang Liqun, wird sich China aber eher auf seine innere Stärke konzentrieren müssen, da auch im Jahr 2010 das außenwirtschaftliche Umfeld eher schwach bleiben, sich aber nicht weiter verschlechtern wird.

Die Exporte, bisher eine wichtige Antriebskraft für das Wirtschaftswachstum, könnten wieder ein leichtes Wachstum erreichen.

Die Investitionen im Immobiliensektor dürften in diesem Jahr laut Zhang um 30 bis 40 Prozent wachsen und eine der Hauptquellen des Wachstums der Investitionen in China sein.

Die durchschnittliche Inflationsrate wird unter drei Prozent bleiben, so Zhang.
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=777006#777006 schrieb:
metahase schrieb am 06.01.2010, 03:22 Uhr[/url]"]http://www.heise.de/tp/r4/artikel/31/31819/1.html

Manipuliert die Fed den Aktienmarkt?
Rainer Sommer 05.01.2010

Zwar gibt es weder schriftliche Beweise noch Zeugenaussagen von Insidern, doch häufen sich die Hinweise, dass die US-Notenbank für den historisch einzigartigen Kursanstieg an den US-Aktienmärkten seit vergangenem März verantwortlich ist
Während die Fed keiner gesetzlichen Beschränkungen unterliegt, die ihr direkte Aktienkäufe verbieten, wäre es für die Finanzmärkte wohl doch ein schwerer Schock, wenn bekannt würde, dass die Notenbank am Aktienmarkt insgeheim als Käufer aktiv ist. Denn das wäre nicht nur ein weiterer Bruch mit traditionellen Regeln, wie Notenbanken zu agieren haben, es würde den Börsianern auch signalisieren, dass sie über die tatsächlichen Verhältnisse von Angebot und Nachfrage getäuscht wurden. Andererseits würde es bedeuten, dass die US-Behörden auch die Kurse am Aktienmarkt garantieren, was manche durchaus als Kaufsignal bewerten dürften.

Jedenfalls flammte über den Jahreswechsel in den US-Finanzblogs eine Diskussion wieder auf, von der Telepolis schon Ende Mai berichtet hatte (Finanzmarktmanipulation: Die üblichen Verdächtigen). Zu jenem Zeitpunkt hatte der Leitindex S&P 500, der die 500 größten börsenotierten US-Unternehmen umfasst, von seinem März-Tiefpunkt rund 250 Punkte aufgeholt. Inzwischen sind nochmals ebenso viele dazugekommen, was die Aktienmarktkapitalisierung insgesamt um sechs Billionen Dollar hat ansteigen lassen. Das war der steilste Anstieg, den die Wall Street je gesehen hat. Umso erstaunlicher ist dabei, dass es hier ebenso wie bei den US-Staatsanleihen (Rätsel um US-Staatsschulden) an klar identifizierbaren Käufern mangelt.

So meint Charles Biderman, ein renommierter Marktexperte des Hedgefonds-Beraters TrimTabs, dass es jedenfalls nicht "Corporate America", der US-Unternehmenssektor, gewesen sein könne. Denn der habe seit März 300 Mrd. USD an neuen Aktien emittiert und dürfte krisenbedingt kaum über die Mittel verfügt haben, ausstehende Aktien auch nur annähernd in dieser Menge aufzukaufen. Auch Aktienfonds kämen dafür nicht in Frage, denn in diese flossen samt ETFs seit April gerade einmal 17 Mrd. Dollar an Investorengeldern, während Anleihefonds immerhin 351 Mrd. USD zugeflossen sind. Ausländische Investoren haben von April bis Oktober zwar für immerhin 109 Mrd. Dollar US-Aktien gekauft, nur vermutet Bidermann, dass diese Zuflüsse bereits ab November zurückgegangen sind. Obwohl seitens der Hedgefonds keine aggregierten Daten verfügbar sind, vermutet Biderman, dass auch hier kaum von umfangreichen Käufen auszugehen sei, da Investoren zwischen April und November aus diesem Bereich netto 12 Mrd. Dollar abgezogen hatten. Zudem gebe es anekdotische Hinweise, dass auch die Pensionsfonds wenig Kauflust gezeigt und seit März maximal 100 Mrd. USD von Anleihen und Cash in Aktien umgeschichtet hätten, schätzt Biderman.

Wenn das Geld aber nicht von den traditionellen Käufern gekommen ist, von wem dann, fragt Biederman, und die Blogosphäre ist sich einig, dass dafür nur die Regierung in Frage kommen kann. Denn der starke Aktienaufschwung war im Vorjahr sicherlich das positivste Ereignis an den Finanzmärkten und wohl wesentlich für das schnelle Erstarken der US-Konjunktur. Immerhin wurde gut die Hälfte der Kursverluste wieder aufgeholt, was über den "Wealth-Effekt" mehr als alle anderen Regierungsmaßnahmen Konsum und Investitionen stimuliert haben dürfte.

Der wichtigste Anhaltspunkt für die Finanzblogger ist die hartnäckige Weigerung der Fed, ihre Bilanzen offenzulegen, obwohl sie dazu in einer von Bloomberg angestrengten Klage bereits erstinstanzlich verpflichtet wurde. Und angesichts dieses enormen positiven Effekts wäre es nur logisch, den Aktienmarkt zu stützen, denn immerhin hat die Regierung höchst offiziell bereits hunderte Milliarden in die Kfz-Industrie, in den Immobilienbereich und in die Banken gepumpt.

Fed-Chef Ben Bernanke hat übrigens schon 2002 im Zusammenhang mit der Deflationsgefahr davon gesprochen, dass es sinnvoll sein könnte, Zentralbankgeld in den Aktienmarkt zu stecken, und 2006 erzählte George Stephanopoulos aus dem Stab von Präsident Bill Clinton, dass es zudem ein informelles Übereinkommen zwischen den großen Banken, der Börse und der Fed gebe, den Markt notfalls zu stützen – das berühmte "Plunge Protection Team", von dem seit 1989 immer wieder die Rede ist.

Tyler Durden von ZeroHedge beobachtet jedenfalls, dass seit Mitte September praktisch die gesamten Kurszuwächse des S&P 500 auf nachbörsliche Termingeschäfte zurückgeführt werden können. Das wäre vermutlich auch der beste Weg, den Markt mit minimalem Aufwand zu stützen. So schätzt Biderman, dass mit monatlich 20 Mrd. Dollar über Futures am Aktienmarkt ein Volumen von rund 100 Mrd. Dollar bewegt werden könnte. Da dadurch weitere Gelder in den Markt gezogen würden, könnte das seiner Meinung nach den Aufschwung erklären - und diese Gelder wären dann sicherlich wesentlich besser investiert worden, als die Milliardenbeträge aus den offiziellen Programmen.
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=778179#778179 schrieb:
golden_times schrieb am 07.01.2010, 19:27 Uhr[/url]"]The Biggest Financial Deception of the Decade

Enron? Bear Stearns? Bernie Madoff? They’re all big stories about big losses and have hurt a lot of employees and investors. But none come close to getting my vote for the decade’s most dastardly deception...


http://www.24hgold.com/english/news...0G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Jeff+Clark
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=779594#779594 schrieb:
dukezero schrieb am 11.01.2010, 11:25 Uhr[/url]"]WSJ: China bleibt im Fokus der Stahl- und Rohstoffkonzerne

Von Robert Guy Matthews

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

PEKING (Dow Jones)--Auch 2010 werden die Stahlkonzerne mit großem Interesse nach China blicken. Die chinesische Stahlproduktion wird im laufenden Jahr voraussichtlich um 10% steigen, doch angesichts einer gleichzeitig wachsenden Nachfrage erwarten Beobachter keine Überkapazitäten in China. Die Preise für Stahl und Rohstoffe wie Eisenerz und Kohle dürften somit weltweit zulegen.

In diesem Jahr werden in der Volksrepublik voraussichtlich 600 Mio Tonnen Stahl hergestellt werden. Damit entfallen rund 50% der weltweiten Produktion auf China. "Die chinesische Stahlproduktion und -nachfrage wird wohl ihren unaufhaltsamen Anstieg fortsetzen", sagte Peter M. Fish vom Beratungsunternehmen MEPS International.

Große Konjunkturprogramme und ehrgeizige Pläne für den Ausbau der chinesischen Infrastruktur lassen die chinesische Stahlnachfrage in die Höhe schnellen. Somit wird nach Ansicht der China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) ein Großteil der Stahlprodukte im Inland verbraucht werden. So sind die chinesischen Stahlexporte im vergangenen Jahr je nach Produkt um 10% bis 50% gefallen.

Der chinesische Hunger nach Stahl macht sich auch an den Rohstoffmärkten bemerkbar. Am Spotmarkt werden inzwischen 110 USD je Tonne Eisenerz gezahlt - der höchste Preis seit mehr als einem Jahr. Nachdem China wegen Umweltbedenken die Kohleförderung im vergangenen Jahr eingeschränkt hatte, sind die Kohlepreise um 30% in die Höhe geschnellt. Auch bei Kupfer, Aluminium und Zink sind die Preise gestiegen. "Die Erholung der Rohstoffpreise hat sämtliche Erwartungen übertroffen", sagte David Butler, Analyst bei J.P. Morgan Cazenove.

Stahl- und Rohstoffkonzerne profitieren von dieser Entwicklung. So fahren der weltgrößte Rohstoffkonzern BHP Billiton, die Rio Tinto plc, die australische Fortescue Metals Group Ltd und die brasilianische Vale ihre Eisenerzproduktion hoch, um die erwartete höhere Nachfrage aus China zu befriedigen.

Rio Tinto, Chinas Hauptlieferant für Eisenerz, bereitet laut Unternehmenssprecher Robin Walker eine Revision seiner vom August stammenden Prognose über die chinesische Nachfrage vor. "Der neue Ausblick könnte zeigen, dass das Wachstum stärker ausfällt als bislang erwartet", sagte Walker.

Die chinesische Baosteel kündigte vergangene Woche an, ihre Preise für Stahlblech ab Februar um 5% zu erhöhen. Dies ist die dritte Preiserhöhung binnen drei Monaten. "Nachdem die Januar-Preiserhöhung durchgesetzt werden konnten, erwarten wir weitere Preiserhöhungen in China sowie den USA und Europa", sagte Michelle Applebaum, Analystin beim Chicagoer Stahl-Researchunternehmen MARI. "Die chinesische Stahlnachfrage ist erheblich. Steigende Rohstoffpreise lösen eine Inflationsspirale aus während Stahlhersteller und ihre Kunden neues Material fordern."
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=780264#780264 schrieb:
dukezero schrieb am 12.01.2010, 12:20 Uhr[/url]"]Verband -Großhandel holt 2010 ein Viertel des Erlöseinbruchs auf

Berlin, 12. Jan (Reuters) - Die Großhändler in Deutschland blicken wieder zuversichtlicher auf das laufende Geschäftsjahr. Die Erlöse dürften um fünf Prozent auf gut 769 Milliarden Euro steigen, teilte der Branchenverband BGA am Dienstag mit. "Nach einem beispiellosen Konjunkturabsturz fasst die deutsche Wirtschaft wieder Tritt", sagte Anton Börner, Präsident des Bundesverbandes Großhandel, Außenhandel, Dienstleistungen (BGA). "Die Großhändler und unternehmensnahen Dienstleister lassen sich von dem schweren Einbruch jedenfalls nicht entmutigen."

Grund zur Hoffnung sei eine Belebung des Außenhandels, sagte Börner. Vor allem die Aussichten für Ostasien, Indien und Europa hätten sich verbessert, aber auch das Potenzial für die USA werde wieder günstiger bewertet. "Wir gehen in diesem Umfeld davon aus, dass die Nachfrage nach Maschinen, Anlagen und Vorleistungen wieder ansteigt", sagte er. Das dürfte die Wirtschaft insgesamt beflügeln: Der BGA hält für das laufende Jahr ein Wachstum von 2,5 bis knapp unter drei Prozent für möglich und ist damit optimistischer als viele Forschungsinstitute und die Bundesregierung. 2011 drohe aber ein Dämpfer. "Achillesferse ist der Konsum, der etwas an Stärke einbüßen wird", sagte Börner.

Dennoch dürfte es trotz des erwarteten Umsatzplus noch länger dauern, bis der Großhandel die Folgen der Krise überwunden hat: 2010 könne ungefähr ein Viertel des verlorenen Erlösvolumens von insgesamt etwa 120 Milliarden Euro wettgemacht werden. 2009 brachen die Erlöse der Großhändler um etwa 15 Prozent ein.
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=783023#783023 schrieb:
golden_times schrieb am 17.01.2010, 00:29 Uhr[/url]"]No Bubble in Gold Outlook for 2010 by Beacon Rock Research

Gold has appeared to have stabilized at a level above US$1,100, close to a recent 52-week and record high. For those following the price of gold, this is in line with annual increases over most of the last decade. It also coincides with seasonal variations in the metal’s price. Typically, due to demand from metal fabricators in Asia (China, India, and the Middle East) the price of gold tends to increase from late summer and early fall through the late winter and early spring months of the following year. This pattern was broken in 2009, quite possibly due to the unhealthy global economy, when the price of gold maintained more or less steady rates of appreciation to the present.

Record Gold Prices Warrant Concern, Not Fear for Gold Bugs

The record prices for gold have given rise to concerns of a bubble forming in gold by observers relying on charts and technical analysis. Certainly we become quite nervous when expectations for appreciation are met, but we see no signs of a bubble forming similar to other recent financial bubbles, including excessive use or margin, an appearance of insatiable demand, or universal euphoria over the commodity.

Recent premiums have increased for purchasing physical gold. These can be met as gold may become available for commercial interests whenever gold may be sold above the spot price. Certainly there is room in 2010 for a seasonal correction, with even more volatility relative to prior years due to potential increased interest and ability of momentum traders. In any event, we suspect general continuation of prior annual trends.

Thesis for Long-Term Gold Appreciation Still in Force

We believe gold has performed well as an investment, commencing the current run with the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City, due to supply and demand fundamentals. Prior to 9-11 the industry had languished due to two decade of low metal prices. Major operators closed mines and suspended exploration activities. Most sold off projects to generate cash, and optimized mining operations in order to remain viable. There were reduced levels of investment in all areas of critical infrastructure, including equipment, and skilled labor such as geologists and engineers.

The flat to declining expectations for production were eventually offset by an increase in the money supply (excess reserves in a fractional banking system) which has persisted since 9-11 with the belief that increased liquidity would sustain economic growth. While this did occur to some degree, with increased leverage afforded by the shadow banking system, an increase in the money supply fueled an increase in housing prices. Defaults of subprime mortgages eventually led to a collapsing real estate market and rapid deleveraging of the banking system and near global financial collapse.

Deleveraging Brought out the Yellow Flag

Deleveraging of the global banking system did, by definition, reduces the supply of U.S. dollars to gold and led to a correction for gold in the Spring of 2009. We believe the easing of mark-to-market accounting led to a bottoming of anxiety by bankers no longer forced to write down performing asset for which there was no identifiable market. This eased concerns by regulators and bankers over capital adequacy and bankers were obliged to become more comfortable with their viability. In the meanwhile, banks looked to U.S. Treasuries for risk-free rates of return. In addition, as the Fed and foreign banks continued to buy U.S Treasuries issued to finance deficits in the U.S., interest rates remained low and the U.S. Dollar continued to slide.

Presently, the most likely threat to sustained gold price appreciation would be comments or actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve that they intend to increase interest rates. It would appear that with division among Federal Reserve presidents, interest rate increases would be more likely to follow significant signs of inflation (including higher gold prices) rather than risking stalling an economic recovery.

Gold Bears Counting on Deleveraging or Responsible Fiscal and Monetary Policy

The greatest threat to the price of gold would be if the U.S. Administration and the U.S. Congress embarked upon the unpopular course of fiscal austerity. This could be accompanied by higher interest rates forced on the U.S. by foreign investors, or by increasing levels of taxation. The latter appears more or less certain with the expiration of Bush tax cuts and initiatives to reform health care and carbon reduction tax initiatives. While there is certainly significant uncertainty for any of these outcomes, it can be counted on that increased uncertainty is unfavorable for the business sector to invest. Without investment, job growth will likely languish and without bank lending and increased commercial activity, gold may remain at current levels.

We believe it is unlikely that gold will move much lower in 2010. The political will and mindset as well as the ideology of the Federal Reserve runs counter to monetary stability coincident with economic growth. We can count on reduced economic activity with higher tax rates reducing total tax revenues, especially if inflation pushes wage earners into higher tax brackets. Following the global financial system’s near brush with death, economic stagnation or stagflation will be given high marks (possibly as high as a B+) for progress by the political and economic elite. Considering the permanence of death they may be correct, but in reality, the middle and dependent classes may remain unsatisfied and aspire for more.

Our Opinion and Outlook for Gold in 2010

Our outlook anticipates a price for gold between US$900 and US$1,200 per ounce, although we would not be surprised if gold increased to US$1,500 per ounce in 2010, as part of an extension of the current long-term trend. Yet it might still avoid classification as a “bubble” relative to the inflation of technology stocks at the turn of the century, and of the housing market more recently.

There are scenarios which could precipitate acceleration of appreciation of gold prices including the monetization of debt, increase in bank lending without increases in interest rates, and consistent and unimpeded international purchases of gold by central banks. Without real economic growth in the U.S., the U.S. dollar would certainly come under pressure and gold would likely appreciate.

Sadly, an apparent bubble from the gold perspective, rather than an appreciation of gold, may be categorized as a collapse of U.S. dollar-denominated financial instruments. We are not expecting this extreme case in 2010 but this is the direction. With gold at US$1,100 per ounce, gold companies advancing assets to production should do well, assuming a relatively stable economic environment.
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=789683#789683 schrieb:
Global_Investor schrieb am 29.01.2010, 16:11 Uhr[/url]"]Hier mal das aktuelle HUI/Gold Ratio. Damit kann man die Entwicklung der großen Goldminenaktien relativ zum Goldpreis beobachten.

hui_gold92ou.png


Noch nicht dramatisch...


Und hier der S&P / TSX Venture (CDNX) also die "kleineren Junior Explorer" relativ zu den großen Gesellschaften die im HUI (Amex Gold Bugs) vertreten sind

cdnx_huic31s.png


Die kleineren haben also durchaus noch etwas Potential relativ zu den Großen
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=790950#790950 schrieb:
Global_Investor schrieb am 02.02.2010, 13:59 Uhr[/url]"]Kupfer und Co. massiv unter Druck
02.02.2010 | 7:19 Uhr | Autor: Sven Streitmayer Quelle: LBBW

Preisrutsch hält an, Kupfer unter 7.000er-Marke

In einem von Nervosität geprägten Handelsverlauf blieben die NE-Metallpreise in der vergangenen Woche weiter heftig unter Druck. Mit der Ausnahme von Nickel (+1%) und Zinn (-3%), die den Abverkauf vergleichsweise unbeschadet überstanden haben, verzeichneten alle an der LME notierten Basismetalle beträchtliche Verluste, die von -7% bei Aluminium bis zu -10% bei Zink reichten. Der Kupferpreis fiel dabei erstmals seit fünf Wochen wieder unter die 7.000 USD-Marke (-9%), während Zink ein 2 ½-Monatstief markierte. Vor dem Hintergrund der nach wie vor verhaltenen fundamentalen Marktlage hatten wir bereits seit längerem mit einer Korrektur gerechnet, die sich nun offenbar mit allem Nachdruck eingestellt hat. Aus technischer Perspektive hat die Mehrzahl der von uns beobachteten Metalle inzwischen einen deutlichen Abwärtstrend herausgebildet (vgl. Charts S. 2), was der aktuellen Preisbewegung eine zusätzliche Brisanz verleiht.

7886.png




Belastungsfaktoren China, USD, Risikoaversion

Als Katalysator für den plötzlichen Umschwung dienten, wie bereits in der Vorwoche thematisiert, insbesondere der Restriktionskurs der chinesischen Zentralbank, welcher - so die Befürchtung – die physische (und spekulative) Metallnachfrage der Volksrepublik spürbar beeinträchtigen könnte. Darüber hinaus erweist sich auch die zuletzt wieder anziehende Risikoaversion der Investoren sowie, damit einhergehend, die feste US-Währung als Belastung für das Metallmarktumfeld. All dem konnten sich auch die Notierungen an der Terminbörse in Shanghai nicht entziehen (Abb. rechts).

Seit dem Hoch Anfang Januar befinden sich hier sowohl Kupfer (-10%), wie auch Aluminium (-11%) und Zink (-18%) auf dem Rückzug und weisen damit eine nahezu identische Preisentwicklung mit ihren europäischen Pendants auf. Mit Blick auf das Mitte Februar anstehende chinesische Neujahrsfest und den damit verbundenen Feiertagen und Betriebsferien dürften vom weltgrößten Metallverbraucher vorerst wohl kaum positive Nachfrageimpulse ausgehen.

7887.png


Ausblick: Abwärtsmomentum dürfte überwiegen

Wie so oft nach derart scharfen Marktbewegungen und der inzwischen überverkauften Situation vieler Metalle halten wir eine kurzfristige technische Gegenreaktion für nicht unwahrscheinlich. In Anbetracht des oben skizzierten Umfelds dürfte auf Sicht der kommenden Wochen jedoch das Abwärtsrisiko überwiegen, zumal auch die weiterhin extrem einseitige Positionierung der spekulativen Marktakteure zur Vorsicht mahnt.

7888.png
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=797244#797244 schrieb:
Global_Investor schrieb am 12.02.2010, 12:53 Uhr[/url]"]Some Gold Forecasts for Patient Bulls
Bookmark and Share Source: GoldSeek, Rick Ackerman 02/09/2010

With the correction in gold prices now entering its third month, bulls would do well to take the long view. Compared to the gut-wrenching grind to hell in 2008, the current consolidation has been a piece of cake. Since hitting a record high of $1,229 in early December, the gold price, per ounce, has fallen $185, representing a decline of 15%. In comparison, the 2008 correction amounted to a full-blown collapse. Prices fell 35% over a seven-month period, from $1,066 to $694. The chart below shows both corrections. We’ve also drawn in some hypothetical price bars in red to show what the chart would look like if this consolidation were to track the path of the earlier one. That would yield a bottom near $856 in early June. If that sounds like strong medicine, consider the payoff: The price of gold rose 77% from its October 2008 low. If a similar situation were to play out in 2009, gold would hit $1,515 by summer 2011. That scenario sounds like a scenario that everyone but bullion bankers and Democrats could root for.

patient.jpg


More immediately, the Rick's Picks forecasts calls for further slippage down to at least $1,014.20, basis the April Comex contract. That's less than 5% below current levels, so it could conceivably happen by week's end or early next. We'd buy aggressively down there with a tight stop if the opportunity were to present itself. We should also allow for the possibility of a bullish reversal at any time. To achieve that today, the futures would need to hit $1,077.40. A bullish turn from above $1,014.20—from here, perhaps—is not exactly a long shot bet, either, as our analysis for the Dollar Index suggests it may have made a top of at least intermediate-term importance when it hit $80.68 on Friday.
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=797448#797448 schrieb:
dukezero schrieb am 12.02.2010, 17:38 Uhr[/url]"]Analyst: China zahlt 40% mehr für Eisenerz
von Jochen Stanzl
Freitag 12.02.2010, 15:19 Uhr
Beijing (BoerseGo.de) - BHP Billiton hat Berichten des Researchhauses UC361.com zufolge auf eine Preiserhöhung für Eisenerz im Jahr 2010 von 40% geeinigt. Für einige Verträge soll die Preiserhöhung auch rückwirkend zum 1. Januar gelten. Die Verträge mit den japanischen Stahlkochern müssten noch ausgehandelt werden.
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=801725#801725 schrieb:
golden_times schrieb am 20.02.2010, 10:55 Uhr[/url]"]Trading HUI Volume Spikes

Adam Hamilton, CPA, February 19, 2010
Quelle: http://www.aheadoftheherd.com/Articles/Trading HUI Volume Spikes.htm

After surging 11.9% higher in just 7 trading days, the flagship HUI gold-stock index is starting to recapture traders’ attention. Right as this rally launched a couple weeks ago, I pointed out this sector’s exceedingly bullish technicals. Since then, I’ve been examining secondary indicators including volume to see if they corroborate the key primary ones.

Trading volume, the number of shares changing hands in a given day, offers a valuable window into the ethereal realm of prevailing sentiment. When traders are complacent and bored, volume dwindles. Few get excited about trading lethargic stocks. But when emotions run high, volume often spikes dramatically. This is the case whether traders are suffering from excessive greed or fear. Volume surges when traders get excited, for any reason, and want to trade more.

Precious-metals-stock traders can capitalize on these volume tendencies to help fine tune our entry and exit points. Big volume spikes, depending on where they occur within prevailing short-term trends, can signal various important trading milestones. These include the launch days of big and fast rallies, the births of major corrections, and the capitulation episodes signaling the ends of these corrections.

For speculators and investors alike, no technical events are more important to discern than the major short-term reversals. These critical transitions from upleg to correction and vice versa mark the exact moments when it is most advantageous to buy low or sell high. Volume spikes, while being too ambiguous to be primary indicators, offer excellent secondary confirmations of major reversals.

Unfortunately in the HUI’s case, this volume analysis isn’t easy. Despite gold stocks’ spectacular 1331% gains over a 7-year span where the general stock markets lost 7%, gold stocks still get no respect. As a neglected and highly-contrarian sector even this far into its secular bull, the HUI doesn’t actually trade. It is merely a tracking index, so there is no conventional index-futures volume data available to analyze.

Working around this limitation is possible using HUI composite volume. Today the HUI gold-stock index is comprised of 16 individual-stock components. By adding together the individual trading volumes of all these component stocks, we get a composite of HUI volume as a whole. While technically easy to do, this task is still data-intensive and requires plenty of spreadsheet time. Thus HUI volume isn’t analyzed often.

While I’ve analyzed HUI composite volume in the past, trading it requires delineating between normal and exceptional activity. Defining volume spikes as exceptional in real-time is only possible if there is some baseline from which to make these judgments. The raw composite-volume data is so wildly volatile that it is hard to recognize significant volume events out of the incessant cacophony of background noise.

As I’ve pondered this puzzle lately, I came up with a couple ideas for solutions. HUI capital volume is fairly conventional, while HUI relative volume is an entirely new construct. Together they work to identify exceptional volume spikes in real-time to use as secondary confirmations of primary trading indicators. While I examined nearly a decade of this data in doing my research, I’m limiting this essay’s discussion to this past year to keep it a manageable length.

While conventional volume looks at shares changing hands, capital volume looks at the actual capital being traded. This distinction is important. Imagine two stocks, each doing 1m shares today. They’d naturally have equal impact in conventional volume analysis. But what if one is trading at $3 and the other at $30? While their raw volumes are equal, 10x more capital changed hands in the second. Therefore it is far more important. Capital volume is a much purer measure of actual trading activity.

This first chart looks at daily HUI capital volume over the past year. Capital volumes for all individual HUI component stocks are computed daily and then added together. Since actual capital changing hands is far more important than the raw shares traded, this perspective helps exceptional volume spikes stand out more boldly. These spikes tend to correspond with several very specific tradable events.

» zur Grafik

The three primary types of exceptional volume spikes are capitulation spikes, early-rally spikes, and initial-selloff spikes. Capitulation spikes occur late in ongoing corrections when frustrated traders trying to ride out the selling finally surrender and sell in disgust. These are fear-driven events that coincide with big down days late in corrections. My initial motivation to do this research was to see if February 4th’s 5.9% HUI selloff to a new interim low qualified as a correction-ending capitulation spike.

It kind of did. 146m shares of HUI-component stocks changed hands that day, worth $3.0b. That selloff marked the biggest raw-volume and capital-volume day in a couple weeks. Back on January 21st, a mid-correction 4.4% down day, the HUI traded 156m shares worth $3.8b. In general, the bigger the capitulation volume spike the more fear and hence the better the buying opportunity. So although I’d hoped to see a bigger spike on February 4th, that event still fit the capitulation-spike mold.

Capitulation spikes mark the critical transitions between major corrections and major uplegs. Obviously speculators and investors alike want to aggressively add long positions whenever a correction is reversing into a new upleg. We’ve been doing this at Zeal recently, aggressively buying and recommending elite gold and silver stocks in our popular subscription newsletters. This wasn’t because of volume though, which is only a secondary confirmation. The primary buy signals were the HUI technicals and the HUI/Gold Ratio.

Interestingly the day after this capitulation spike (February 5th) was a more meaningful volume spike, and brings us to the second type. It is an early-rally spike. That day the HUI surged 5.3% higher which started getting traders excited about gold stocks again. They bought aggressively, pushing through 168m shares worth $3.8b in capital terms. Early-rally spikes, as you can see in this chart, tend to happen early in big rallies. They are clear signals that sentiment is turning bullish again, that buyers are flocking back in.

The third type of exceptional volume spike is the initial-selloff spike. We last saw one in early December just after the HUI’s latest upleg topped. On December 4th the HUI plunged 5.2% thanks to a steep 4.1% gold selloff (driven by a sharp US dollar rally). That day a staggering 207m shares of HUI-component companies changed hands, worth an all-time record $5.9b! Such heavy selling was a sign that the upleg to that point had just rolled over.

Since exceptional volume spikes occur more often than just at major upleg-to-correction and correction-to-upleg transitions, we can’t rely on them as primary trading indicators. As this chart reveals, even in capital-volume terms it is not uncommon to see exceptional volume spikes in the middle of both ongoing uplegs and corrections. But when you get an exceptional volume spike corresponding with other primary technical signals, it really ramps up the odds that these primary signals are correct.

Capitulation spikes often mark the ends of major corrections, the point where the holdout traders succumb to their fears and finally surrender at exactly the wrong time. They help illuminate correction-to-upleg transitions in real-time. Conversely, initial-selloff spikes often mark the ends of major uplegs. Traders getting nervous about how fast and far gold stocks have run are quick to jump on the first significant selling, and the resulting volume spike betrays the end of the greed that drove the preceding upleg.

Interestingly both the transitions from correction to upleg and upleg to correction are selling events. The heavy volume occurs on large downside days driven by fear. But if the HUI happens to be coming off a significant interim low, exceptional volume spikes tend to happen on big up days. Heavy buying in early-rally spikes signals the return of greed, a second chance to get long to ride the rest of the upleg if you missed the primary buying opportunity at the end of the preceding correction.

Gold-stock speculators and investors alike would be well-served looking for these volume spikes. If gold stocks have run higher for months without a significant correction, and you see a high-volume selloff, odds are it marks the end of that upleg. Greed was getting too excessive so a rebalancing correction is necessary to rebalance sentiment. Large high-volume selloffs just after major interim highs are great secondary indicators that a new correction is likely underway.

Conversely if gold stocks have ground lower for many weeks or months without any meaningful rallies, and you see a high-volume selloff, it likely signals the final capitulation. Fear was getting out of control so a new rally needs to be born to rebalance sentiment. Large high-volume selloffs leading to major interim lows are a great secondary indicator suggesting the ongoing correction has finally run its course.

A couple more points before we move on. Note above that our latest correction since early December has witnessed 4 separate exceptional volume spikes. We had the initial-selloff one, a couple much smaller mid-correction ones, and the latest a couple weeks ago which will probably prove to be the final capitulation spike. Back in the HUI’s last correction in June and July, we saw a similar pattern. As discussed a couple weeks ago, HUI corrections are often two-staged. So late in a correction after two distinct legs down, the odds of a big-volume down day being a capitulation spike increase considerably.

In addition, check out the anemic capital volume during the summer months. During the usual PM summer doldrums in June, July, and August, the HUI averaged just $1.5b worth of component shares changing hands per day. Summer usually yields nothing but lethargy in the gold stocks, so don’t expect much from them then. But once the busy autumn trading season launches, volume returns. In September, October, and November, HUI capital volume doubled to $3.0b per day.

While exceptional capital-volume spikes corroborate other primary technical indicators at key reversal points, there is still plenty of noise (volume spikes not corresponding to major reversals) in this chart. So I decided to try a new construct I’ve been wondering about, HUI relative volume. It looks at daily HUI volume as a multiple of its recent average. This is similar to the principles behind my Relativity trading system.

In order to define a volume spike as exceptional, we first have to define a baseline establishing normal. If I tell you I ate a couple chocolate-chip cookies today, it is meaningless. Without knowing what I normally eat, you can’t draw a conclusion. If I told you I usually eat a dozen a day, you’d assume I went on a diet. If I told you I usually eat one a month, you’d think I had a party. Context is essential for interpreting data!

In conventional volume analysis, the baseline average most often used is 3 months. With an average month encompassing 21 trading days, this is essentially a 63-day moving average. You Zeal subscribers have seen me compare exceptional days to this average as a multiple many times when analyzing individual stocks we are trading. I’ll write something like “ABC stock rocketed higher that day on heavy volume running 3.4x the 3m average”.

HUI relative volume just extends this concept to chart form. Every trading day’s raw volume is divided by the trailing 3-month average that day, which forms a baseline “normal” level for that point in time. The resulting multiple, charted over time, offers another complimentary perspective on what constitutes an exceptional volume spike on any given day. The HUI relative-volume multiple is shown in red below.

Note in this initial analysis I used raw HUI volume, actual shares traded, not capital volume. While we could certainly look at HUI relative capital volume, I didn’t want to unduly complicate this new potential tool right out of the gates. I’ll probably look at it some time in the future though and write another essay on it if it proves interesting. But for now, this is based on straight share volume.

» zur Grafik

While relative volume reveals the same exceptional volume spikes we saw above in capital-volume terms, it paints them in a different light. This perspective reorganizes their magnitudes compared to each other, highlighting deviations from prevailing norms instead of actual capital changing hands. While the biggest capital-volume spike was in early December, the biggest relative-volume one was in early September.

On September 3rd the HUI rocketed 5.8% higher. The heavy buying resulted in a huge 202m-share day ($4.9b in capital volume). But emerging right after the slow market summer, this early-rally spike ran a huge 2.9x normal volume. It was a radical change compared to prevailing conditions to see such a massive volume spike at that time. Meanwhile the December 4th initial-selloff spike saw 207m shares ($5.9b) change hands, but the 3-month average base at the time was much higher so it was only a 1.7x relative spike.

Obviously in relative-volume terms we can see the same three types of exceptional volume spikes. There are initial-selloff spikes here marking the ends of uplegs, capitulation spikes marking the ends of corrections, and early-rally spikes signaling the return of greed-driven buying. Relative volume highlights the importance of big deviations from prevailing norms in defining exceptional volume spikes.

So which is superior as a secondary trading indicator, capital or relative? I pondered this question a lot this week as I analyzed a decade’s worth of both data series. At this point my conclusion is neither is superior, they just offer different perspectives. Capital volume reveals when big money is moving in and out of gold stocks, a very valuable tool. And relative volume shows when trading patterns change radically from their recent normal baseline.

It is probably best to use these tools in concert, much like we do with the Relative HUI and HUI/Gold Ratio as primary trading indicators. The higher both the capital volume and relative volume in any given spike relative to recent precedent, the greater the odds that spike marked an important trading event. Paying attention to these HUI volume spikes increases traders’ odds of recognizing critical short-term reversals transitioning between upward-trending and downward-trending markets.

Just after major interim highs these high-volume spike events signal the dawns of healthy corrections, the time to sell longs and get short or neutral. And during major interim lows these events mark the capitulations of mature corrections, the time to add longs and close shorts. While only a secondary indicator, it is always nice to have corroboration on primary ones. Watching volume spikes can help you more efficiently buy low and sell high in real-time.

At Zeal we are lifelong students of the markets, constantly looking for tools to increase our odds of executing profitable trades. Over the recent weeks we’ve been aggressively adding new positions in elite gold and silver stocks to ride the next upleg. While the latest volume spike agrees with the primary indicators in suggesting this upleg is already underway, it is not too late to get deployed. Both gold and silver tend to have strong seasonal rallies climaxing in May, which tend to drive big moves higher in PM stocks.

For just $10 a month, you can share in the profitable fruits of all our hard work at Zeal. This trifling sum buys you a subscription to our acclaimed monthly newsletter, Zeal Intelligence. In each issue I examine the markets, explaining what is going on and why. Against this current backdrop I apply all our hard-won knowledge, experience, and wisdom to uncover high-potential-for-success speculation and investment opportunities for our subscribers. Subscribe today, and learn how to thrive in the markets!

The bottom line is paying attention to HUI volume spikes can really help traders fine-tune their buy and sell timing. Volume surges when emotions run high, and sentiment extremes mark the critical transitions between uplegs and corrections. So when an exceptional volume spike occurs near or at a major interim high or low, it is often a sign that a reversal is imminent or already underway.

But volume spikes can be ambiguous, signaling different things in different circumstances, so they are a secondary indicator. A volume spike alone doesn’t offer enough information. It must be considered in context. Is it near a major interim high or low? Was the HUI rising or falling, and for how long, prior to the spike? And was the spike a greed-driven event on a big up day or a fear-driven event on a big down day? With a little perspective, volume spikes help traders identify key transitions in real-time.
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=801726#801726 schrieb:
golden_times schrieb am 20.02.2010, 11:01 Uhr[/url]"]1001 Reasons to Own Gold

By Jeff Clark, Senior Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report
Quelle: http://www.aheadoftheherd.com/Articles/1001 Reasons to Own Gold.htm

Tracking the numerous ongoing bullish factors for gold is quite a chore. There are, quite literally, so many compelling arguments for holding our favorite metal that I used to catalog them each month in our letter.

The reason there are so many “reasons” is because gold is unlike any other asset. It...

&#9658;responds to its own supply and demand
&#9658;protects against short-sighted government actions and interventions
&#9658;is a bellwether of market sentiment and economic outlook
&#9658;protects against currency devaluation and inflation
&#9658;is global
&#9658;is one of the most beautiful metals ever found in the earth’s crust
&#9658;is a store of value
&#9658;is timeless
&#9658;is money

How many assets can you say have all those characteristics?

In spite of gold’s recent correction, the reasons haven’t decreased. In fact, the case for holding gold is stronger than ever. And over the past two weeks, a few “reasons” have surfaced that have fallen mostly under the radar. These, I believe, portend a higher gold price. In fact, it is catalysts like these that could end up in our children’s history books that, in retrospect, were obvious to see...

1. For the first time ever, China has invested in GLD, the gold exchange-traded fund. Their sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corporation, recently invested $155 million in the ETF. The amount represents only 0.05% of the sovereign funds’ $300 billion, meaning there’s a lot more where that came from.

Those mainstream lemmings who predicted China was done buying gold now have to deal with the reality that this move more likely signals they are closer to the beginning – and not the end – of a long-term strategy to diversify into gold.

2. The Prime Minister's Office in India is creating a stream-lined process so that the country’s state-owned corporations can “aggressively pursue the acquisition of strategic mineral resources.” The Indian government, normally known for thick-layered bureaucracy, has created a centralized body that will have “rapid strategic and decision making powers.” This is telling, both from the perspective that they see some urgency to the matter, and that the acquisition targets are minerals.

Given the country’s historic propensity to own gold, it’s not a stretch to think the yellow metal will be high on the list of “strategic investments.” Recall their government purchased almost half the IMF gold for sale last year in one fell swoop.

The upshot? Don’t be surprised to soon hear of India following China’s lead of buying precious metal companies and resources.

3. “Iran is now a nuclear state,” declared President Ahmadinejad last week. The Islamic republic has produced its first batch of high-level enriched uranium, which they claim is solely for electricity purposes but can also be used to create material for atomic weapons if enriched to 90%. In response, the U.S. imposed new sanctions, and the U.N. is considering adding more of its own sanctions, too.

The West recently proposed that Iran export its uranium for enrichment and then have it returned as fuel rods for a reactor. Iran demanded changes to that plan, which were rejected, so claimed they had “no choice” but to start enriching to higher levels on their own. “God willing,” declared Ahmadinejad, “daily production will be tripled.”

I’m sure this will all just blow over, right?

4. The U.S. government must inflate. Here’s another reason we think that sooner or later inflation trumps deflation... by 2020, government economists project that entitlement benefits (Social Security, Medicare, etc.), along with interest payments on the national debt, will devour 80% of all federal revenues.

This assumes entitlement benefits don’t grow, which, of course, they are. The overall national debt, meanwhile, will rise to 100% of GDP within a few years, an alarming level by any measure. Even Moody’s warned that our credit status could lose its triple-A rating if the nation's finances don’t improve, an unheard-of prospect just a few years ago.

So, we’re abruptly fleeing our debt-adding habits, right? As you probably heard last month, Obama signed legislation that raised the cap on government debt from $12.4 trillion – already close to being breached – to $14.3 trillion to permit more borrowing. As Doug Casey has pointed out numerous times, this is the exact opposite of what the government should be doing and will have serious inflationary ramifications.

There’s only one way out: devalue the dollar to reduce the debt burden. And the direct result of that is a rising gold price. We may very well see another round of deflation, but the endgame is inflation.

What I would point out is that any one of these reasons would be sufficient for wanting to put some gold in your portfolio. It’s the cumulative effect that’s potentially scary, one that argues we should be overweight precious metals at this point in history. The reasons are numerous and, in my opinion, overwhelming.
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=802102#802102 schrieb:
metahase schrieb am 22.02.2010, 11:40 Uhr[/url]"]http://www.bis.org/publ/othp09.htm


The future of public debt: prospects and implications

by Stephen G Cecchetti, M S Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli

2 February 2010

This paper was prepared for the Reserve Bank of India's International Research Conference "Challenges to Central Banking in the context of Financial Crisis", Mumbai, India, 12-13 February 2010.

Introduction
The financial crisis that erupted in mid-2008 led to an explosion of public debt in many advanced economies. Governments were forced to recapitalise banks, take over a large part of the debts of failing financial institutions, and introduce large stimulus programmes to revive demand. According to the OECD, total industrialised country public sector debt is now expected to exceed 100% of GDP in 2010 - something that has never happened before in peacetime. As bad as these fiscal problems may appear, relying solely on these official figures is almost certainly very misleading. Rapidly ageing populations present a number of countries with the prospect of enormous future costs that are not wholly recognised in current budget projections. The size of these future obligations is anybody's guess. As far as we know, there is no definite and comprehensive account of the unfunded, contingent liabilities that governments currently have accumulated.

Should we be concerned about high and sharply rising public debts? Several advanced economies have experienced higher levels of public debt than we see today. In the aftermath of World War II, for example, government debts in excess of 100% of GDP were common. And none of these led to default. In more recent times, Japan has been living with a public debt ratio of over 150% without any adverse effect on its cost. So it is possible that investors will continue to put strong faith in industrial countries' ability to repay, and that worries about excessive public debts are exaggerated. Indeed, with only a few exceptions, during the crisis, nominal government bond yields have fallen and remained low. So far, at least, investors have continued to view government bonds as relatively safe.

But bond traders are notoriously short-sighted, assuming they can get out before the storm hits: their time horizons are days or weeks, not years or decades. We take a longer and less benign view of current developments, arguing that the aftermath of the financial crisis is poised to bring a simmering fiscal problem in industrial economies to boiling point. In the face of rapidly ageing populations, for many countries the path of pre-crisis future revenues was insufficient to finance promised expenditure.

The politics of public debt vary by country. In some, seared by unpleasant experience, there is a culture of frugality. In others, however, profligate official spending is commonplace. In recent years, consolidation has been successful on a number of occasions. But fiscal restraint tends to deliver stable debt; rarely does it produce substantial reductions. And, most critically, swings from deficits to surpluses have tended to come along with either falling nominal interest rates, rising real growth, or both. Today, interest rates are exceptionally low and the growth outlook for advanced economies is modest at best. This leads us to conclude that the question is when markets will start putting pressure on governments, not if. When, in the absence of fiscal actions, will investors start demanding a much higher compensation for the risk of holding the increasingly large amounts of public debt that authorities are going to issue to finance their extravagant ways? In some countries, unstable debt dynamics, in which higher debt levels lead to higher interest rates, which then lead to even higher debt levels, are already clearly on the horizon.

It follows that the fiscal problems currently faced by industrial countries need to be tackled relatively soon and resolutely. Failure to do so will complicate the task of central banks in controlling inflation in the immediate future and might ultimately threaten the credibility of present monetary policy arrangements.

While fiscal problems need to be tackled soon, how to do that without seriously jeopardising the incipient economic recovery is the current key challenge for fiscal authorities. We believe an important part of any fiscal consolidation programmes are measures to reduce future liabilities such as an increase in the retirement age. Announcements of changes in future programmes would allow authorities to wait until the recovery from the crisis is assured before reducing discretionary spending and improving the short-term fiscal position.

The remainder of this paper is organised into four sections. In section 2 we present an examination of the recent build-up of public debt. Following the facts, we turn to a forward-looking examination of the public debt trajectories in industrial countries. In section 4 we discuss the challenges these possible future debt levels pose to both fiscal and monetary authorities. The last section concludes.

Full publication (PDF 21 pages, 187 kb): http://www.bis.org/publ/othp09.pdf
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=803999#803999 schrieb:
Global_Investor schrieb am 24.02.2010, 13:51 Uhr[/url]"]
MA022310_1.aspx


Gold: “D” decline underway

A D decline is now underway. These declines tend to be the sharpest intermediate declines in a bull market, and so far this one is following the pattern. Chart 2 shows that gold’s leading indicator (B) declined clearly below its uptrend and it could now fall to the low area while the gold price itself stays under downward pressure.

MA022310_2.aspx


The $1000 level is a key support area, which is near the prior C peak in 2008. The 65-week moving average, now at $975 is rising and it’s set to reach the $1000 level in a few months, which will further reinforce the support at $1000. For now, $975 to $1000 is the strong support level for gold.

Interestingly, gold at $975 would be a 20% decline from the November $1218 peak. The worst D decline so far in the current bull market was in 2008 during the financial meltdown. Gold fell almost 30% from March to November. This was an extreme case in an extreme situation. A decline to the $950 level would be similar to the 2006 D decline, which was the second worst decline since 2001.

In other words, the extent of the decline is about half over. As for timing… since 2004, the D declines have been lasting about twice as long compared to the first years of the bull. This means we could see the decline end any time from here on out, if it’s on the shorter end, but more likely it could last until April.

Pressure is likely to stay on gold and the metals in the weeks ahead, which means it’s time to take advantage of weakness by adding or buying new positions. Gold’s major trend remains up, indicating it’s headed higher. But for now, it will temporarily remain under downward pressure by staying below $1110.
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=806411#806411 schrieb:
golden_times schrieb am 27.02.2010, 13:24 Uhr[/url]"]Gold Hedging Report – Q4 2009

February 2010

Q4 2009 hedge activity
Global hedging falls 4.0 Moz to 7.9
Moz as Barrick closes out its book


Outstanding global gold hedging (delta-adjusted) fell sharply by 4.0 Moz (126t)
to 7.9 Moz (245t) in Q4 2009 as Barrick Gold closed out the remaining 2.9 Moz
(90t) of their hedge book, once the industry’s largest. The decline brought the
full-year 2009 fall to 8.0 Moz (250t) and left global hedging more than 90%
lower than its peak of 102.8 Moz (3,198t) in Q3 01..


http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/tbd/VM/FHBQ409.pdf
 
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=810418#810418 schrieb:
golden_times schrieb am 04.03.2010, 22:55 Uhr[/url]"]Eric Coffin: Juniors Playing the Exploration End Game

Gold has been about the best investment around for the past decade," says Eric Coffin, despite having been lukewarm towards the precious metal in the early ’90s. Co-editor along with his brother David of the HRA (Hard Rock Analyst) publications, Eric explains why they’re sticking with the exploration stories that work and how they prefer mining executives who will "swing for the fence for themselves rather than just option everything"in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report..

http://jutiagroup.com/2010/03/02/eric-coffin-juniors-playing-the-exploration-end-game/
 
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