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Montag, 14. April 2014

Die Trader scheinen Gold vergessen zu haben

2014-04-14-Gold-Daily.png


Wochenanalyse: Die Aktienmärkte gehen heftig in die Knie und der Goldpreis bewegt sich kaum? Ein ungewöhnliches, seltsam wirkendes Szenario. Aber momentan scheint es tatsächlich, als hätten insbesondere die auch bei Gold immer dominanter werdenden kurzfristigen Trader ihre volle Aufmerksamkeit auf die Aktienindizes gerichtet, so dass sich momentan hier einfach nahezu nichts tut. Aus charttechnischer Sicht ist damit im Augenblick vollkommen offen, ob aus diesem bislang eher kümmerlichen Kursanstieg der letzten zwei Wochen ein neuer Aufwärtsschub entsteht, der womöglich die im März erzielten Zwischenhochs bei 1.392 US-Dollar überwindet … oder aber im Augenblick nur eine Gegenreaktion nach dem jüngsten Abwärtsimpuls dabei ist, zu "verhungern" und unmittelbar danach nun doch noch ein zweiter, großer Abwärtsimpuls folgt, der dann womöglich sogar die Jahrestiefs 2013 im Bereich 1.180 US-Dollar testet. Aus charttechnischer Sicht lässt sich gerade aufgrund der geringen Schwankungsbreite der vergangenen Handelstage dahingehend keine taugliche Prognose abgeben. Denn gleichzeitig ist das ohnehin eher moderat zu nennende Kaufinteresse ausgerechnet in der momentan auch noch durch die 20-Tage-Linie verstärkten Widerstandszone 1.310/1.321 US-Dollar zum Erliegen gekommen. Auch ein Blick auf den kurzfristigen Chart auf Stundenbasis zeigt im Moment noch keine eindeutig favorisierte Richtung für die kommenden Tage:

2014-04-14-Gold-60min.png


Tagesanalyse: Wir sehen hier zwar, dass Gold zur Quartalswende einen kurzfristigen Boden ausbilden konnte und seitdem in einem moderaten Aufwärtstrend unterwegs ist. Dass dessen Steigungswinkel aber weit niedriger ausfällt, als es in den Wochen zuvor nach unten ging, ist nicht gerade ein Hinweis darauf, dass man hier Schlange steht, um beim Gold Long zu gehen. Darüber hinaus dämpft die bullishen Hoffnungen der Umstand, dass zwar am Donnerstag der Anstieg über die 20-Tage-Linie gelang, dies aber weder am Donnerstag selbst noch am Freitag zu Anschlusskäufen führte. Und wenn das nicht einmal in einer Phase mit markant fallenden Aktienmärkte gelingt, sprich der Run in Gold als vermeintlich sicheren Hafen schlicht flachfällt, besteht nun natürlich das Risiko, dass man im Gegenzug umso heftiger wieder auf der Short-Seite aktiv wird, falls die Aktienmärkte ihre dynamische Abwärtsbewegung nicht gleich zu Beginn dieser neuen Woche fortsetzen. Wir waren hier mit einer kleinen Position auf der Short-Seite aktiv geworden. Der Stoppkurs war zuletzt vor einer Woche bei 1.328 US-Dollar angesetzt worden, als die 20-Tage-Linie noch in diesem Bereich notierte. Diese ist zwar jetzt auf 1.311 US-Dollar nach unten gelaufen, aber da die Widerstandszone 1.310/1.321 US-Dollar aktuell ebenso relevant ist, macht es wenig Sinn, den Stoppkurs jetzt nachzuziehen. Klar ist im Gegenzug indes: Sollte hier doch noch "Zug" in den Kurs kommen, indem die aktuell umkämpfte Widerstandszone durch Schlusskurse oberhalb 1.328 US-Dollar bezwungen wird, würde sich ein umgehender Wechsel auf die Long-Seite anbieten, wobei eine solche Positionen dann zunächst mit einem Stoppkurs von 1.295 US-Dollar, also knapp unterhalb der 200-Tage-Linie, abgesichert werden sollte.

Widerstände: 1.321 / 1.323 / 1.362 / 1.392 / 1.434

Unterstützungen: 1.311 / 1.310 / 1.299 / 1.279 / 1.251 / 1.180
 
Commodities Rally to Highest in Six Weeks on Ukraine
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen Apr 14, 2014 1:21 PM GMT+0200

Commodities climbed to the highest level in almost six weeks on concern that tension between Russia and Ukraine will curb supplies of nickel to wheat.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials rose as much as 0.8 percent to 657.2232, the highest since March 4, and was at 653.659 at 12:08 p.m. in London. Nickel increased as much as 2.8 and palladium rose to the highest since 2011. Wheat climbed 2 percent.

Russia and Ukraine traded barbs at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council, reviving concern that possible new sanctions may hurt commodity shipments from the biggest palladium supplier and largest exporter of energy. Russia is also home to OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the largest producer of the refined metal. While prices advanced, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said trade measures to curb exports of farm products and energy from Russia aren’t likely.

“Supplies of commodities including nickel, natural gas and wheat, of which Russia is a big exporter, are at risk,” said Diego Parrilla, chief investment officer of Singapore-based Nareco Advisors Pte, an asset manager.

Nickel surged to as much as $17,885 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. he metal, which has also been buoyed this year by Indonesia’s ban on raw ore exports in January, is heading for an 11th day of gains. Palladium climbed as high as $815.10 an ounce and is 13 percent higher this year.
Goldman’s View

Sanctions on Russian energy and farm products are not likely as its energy supplies are too important for Europe to risk disruption, and most of its food exports are sent to developing economies, Goldman analysts led by Jeff Currie said in a report dated yesterday. Still, steel, copper and aluminum exports may be targeted and Russia may also consider so-called counter sanctions on nickel and palladium, Currie wrote.

In the worst-case scenario, where energy flows from Russia are disrupted, the European natural-gas market may tighten, while the U.S. and OPEC would raise crude production, Currie said. Russia accounts for 13 percent of global oil output and 14 percent of natural-gas production, according to Goldman.

Brent crude increased as much as 1 percent to $108.38 a barrel. U.K. natural gas jumped 2 percent. Gold futures rose as much as 0.9 percent to $1,329.92 an ounce and wheat climbed to $6.805 a bushel in Chicago.
Developing Nations

Russia is the fifth-biggest exporter of wheat followed by Ukraine, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It is unlikely that any sanctions would be placed on Russian food exports given the humanitarian dimension and that most shipments are sent to developing nations, Goldman said.

The UN’s emergency meeting of the Security Council was convened at Russia’s request after Ukrainian security forces clashed with pro-Russian gunmen in the east. Last month, the U.S. and EU responded to Russia’s annexation of Crimea by blacklisting Russian officials, businessmen and a bank.
 
One More Correction For Gold Before ‘Substantial Rally’ – Chart This!
Apr 11, 2014

Kitco News speaks with Gary Wagner to wrap this positive week in the gold market. Wagner says that although gold hitting a 2-week high on Thursday is noteworthy, it was also expected. "We will see one more corrective wave before we go into a fairly substantial rally in about 2-3 months," he adds. In his previous interview, Wagner's analysis looked at how to locate key pivot points in the marketplace. This week, he will show gold traders techniques and models used to ... (read more)

http://www.kitco.com/news/video/sho...For-Gold-Before-Substantial-Rally--Chart-This
 
PRECIOUS-Gold up as Ukraine tensions saps risk appetite, palladium rises

Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:24am EDT

* Sell-off in European shares continues

* U.S. prepared to step up sanctions against Russia

* Palladium above $800/oz on supply sanctions fears (Updates throughout, changes dateline from SINGAPORE)

By Clara Denina

LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - Gold jumped to a three-week high on Monday as mounting tensions in Ukraine curbed investor appetite for risk, sending equities lower and boosting bullion's appeal as an insurance asset.

Palladium hit a fresh high since August 2011 at $814.20 an ounce on growing fears that supply would suffer from fresh U.S. sanctions on top producer Russia and prolonged labour strikes in No. 2 miner South Africa.

Ukraine gave pro-Russian separatists a Monday morning deadline to disarm or face a "full-scale anti-terrorist operation" by its armed forces, while the UN's Security Council held an emergency session on Sunday night to discuss the crisis.

Spot gold rose 0.5 percent to $1,324.90 an ounce at 0944 GMT, while gold futures for June delivery were up by the same margin to $1,325.20 an ounce.

"You have tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine again which is giving support to gold, although the strength coming from expectations interest rates in the U.S. will stay low for a prolonged period is a more dominant driver overall," ABN Amro analyst Georgette Boele said.

"But as the U.S. data continues to improve, there could be a readjustment in interest rate expectations and that's when gold is going to suffer," she added. "As for the geopolitical situation, it is much harder to predict how things can go but I don't expect a full-blown crisis there and prices shouldn't go beyond the $1,391 level hit in mid-March."

Gold has built up support over the past week after the Fed's March meeting minutes showed officials were not keen on increasing interest rates straight after unwinding bond purchases, as the markets had feared.

But an improvement in U.S. economic reports left investors still unconvinced that the rally in gold could continue, analysts said.

"...We continue to stand by our year-end gold price target of $1,050 an ounce," Goldman Sachs said in a note. "More broadly, we believe that with tapering of the Fed's QE, U.S. economic releases are back to being a key driving force behind gold prices."

Implying underlying investor bearishness and pessimism over the longer-term outlook, outflows continued from SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund.

Holdings in the fund fell 1.80 tonnes to 804.42 tonnes on Friday.

Buying in the physical markets was still thin with Chinese prices trading at a discount to spot gold.

PALLADIUM AT NEAR-3-YEAR HIGHS

Palladium was up 1 percent at $808 an ounce, on course for its fifth session of gains.

Relations between Russia and the West are at their worst since the Cold War, after Moscow annexed Crimea from Ukraine, saying the Russian population there was under threat.

The United States is prepared to step up sanctions against Moscow if pro-Russian military actions in eastern Ukraine continue, a senior U.S. envoy said, with the sanctions set to target mining, banking and energy, among other sectors. [ID:nL2N0N50AK

Palladium has outperformed other precious metals this year, gaining about 14 percent also supported by fears of supply, growing demand in the auto sector and buying from two newly-launched exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Johannesburg.
 
A.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Up, at 3-Week High, On Safe-Haven Demand Amid Russia-Ukraine Tensions

Monday April 14, 2014 8:19 AM

(Kitco News) - Gold prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading Monday. The market is supported on safe-haven buying interest and short covering due to anxiety surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. June gold was last up $4.90 at $1,323.90 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $4.60 at $1,323.50. May Comex silver last traded down $0.136 at $19.81 an ounce.

It’s a “risk-off” day in the market place Monday, as Russia-Ukraine tensions are back on the front burner. Asian and European stock markets were under selling pressure Monday and the U.S. stock indexes are seeing follow-through selling from last week’s losses, in early electronic trading Monday morning. Gold and the U.S. dollar are seeing safe-haven buying interest Monday, but U.S. Treasuries are not. Crude oil prices have also rallied due to the geopolitical uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine matter.

During the weekend Ukrainian troops were mobilized to counter a surging pro-Russia movement by protesters who have tried to occupy some Ukraine cities. Ukraine government officials have accused Russia of instigating and even arming the protesters.
Meantime, Russian troops are still massed on the Russia-Ukraine border. The NATO secretary-general last week those troops appear ready to move on short notice. This situation has flared up and once again has become a potential geopolitical flash point. There are also questions regarding how the U.S. will react to the latest developments in the region. It’s very likely this conflict will remain a major markets-moving factor for at least the rest of this week. This will at the least limit selling interest in gold for the near term, if not be outright supportive for upside price action.

In other news, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said Saturday the recent strength of the Euro currency could prompt fresh easing of ECB monetary policy, in order to keep deflationary pressures on the EU economy in check. This news dropped the Euro and supported the U.S. dollar index. Gold has backed down from its overnight high partly due to the firmer greenback.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes retail sales, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.5 (The Russia-Ukraine tensions are now on the front burner of the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,324.50 versus the P.M. fixing of $1,318.00.

Technically, June Comex gold bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field, but the bulls have momentum on their side. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,330.80 and then at $1,335.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,319.40 and then at Friday’s low of $1,314.00.

May silver futures bears have the near-term technical advantage as prices have traded sideways and choppy for three weeks. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $20.40 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $19.575. First resistance is seen at $20.00 and then at the overnight high of $20.14. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $19.72 and then at last week’s low of $19.60.
 
Morgan Stanley: Fed Minutes, Ukraine, Equities Boost Gold In April

Monday April 14, 2014 8:04 AM

With the early-Monday gains, Comex gold has risen on seven of 10 trading days so far in April. “Gold has rallied since the start of April as the Fed minutes (from a mid-March meeting) suggested U.S. interest rates will stay lower for longer and tensions in the Ukraine prompted some investors to head to safe-haven assets,” says Morgan Stanley. “Recent equity market volatility is also a likely driver, though we note on a net basis that metal has been flowing out of the ETFs (exchange-traded funds) for two weeks now, suggesting there may not be a lot of strength from the retail side of the investment.” As of 7:48 a.m. EDT, June gold was up $3.40 to $1,322.40 an ounce and peaked at $1,330.80, its strongest level since March 24. By Allen Sykora of Kitco News

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-04-14/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets-April-14.html
 
Where are the Stops? Monday, April 14: Gold and Silver

Monday April 14, 2014 08:51

Below are today's likely price locations of buy and sell stop orders for the active Comex gold and silver futures markets. The asterisks (**) denote the most critical stop order placement level of the day (or likely where the heaviest concentration of stop orders are placed on this day).

See below a detailed explanation of stop orders and why knowing, beforehand, where they are likely located can be beneficial to a trader.

June Gold Buy Stops Sell Stops
$1,325.00 $1,318.70
**$1,330.80 $1,314.00
$1,335.00 **$1,300.00
$1,340.00 $1,296.00
May Silver Buy Stops Sell Stops
$20.00 $19.72
**$20.14 $19.60
$20.25 **$19.575
$20.40 $19.50
 
Large Speculators Trim Gold Net-Long Positions - CFTC Data
By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News
Monday April 14, 2014 12:00 PM

(Kitco News) - Large speculators continue to reduce net-long gold futures and options positions on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, making the current data in the latest weekly commitments of traders from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission the third straight week of losses.

For the week ended April 8, these traders saw mixed activity in their net-long positions in silver between the agency’s disaggregated and legacy data. Large speculators’ activity in the platinum group metals was also mixed, while these traders reduced their copper net-short positions for the second week.

Comex June gold rose by $29.10 to $1,309.10 an ounce during the week covered by the latest CFTC report. May silver gained 36.9 cents to $20.057. June palladium fell by $6.10 to $775.85. Nymex July platinum rose by $12.10 to $1,441.70. Comex May copper gained 1.65 cents to $3.0510 a pound.

Not only did managed-money accounts in the disaggregated report reduce their net-long gold positioning, but for the second week they cut it by slicing longs and adding shorts, a bearish combination. Their net-long sits at 98,492 contracts, the lowest level since Feb. 18.

These traders cut 6,395 gross longs and added 1,469 gross shorts. Producers’ net-short positions rose as they cut gross longs positions and added gross shorts. Swap dealers saw their net-short position fall as they cut shorts and added longs.

Non-commercials repeated this activity in the gold legacy report as they cut 5,694 gross longs and added 541 gross shorts. They are now net-long 120,885 contracts, the smallest since Feb. 18. Commercials are net-short and reduced that position by adding more gross longs than gross shorts.

Analysts at Standard Chartered noted the bearishness of the fund activity in gold.

“Though outflows were smaller than the previous week, they were still significant... However, prices rose 1.1%, bouncing from the lows of April 1. We expect the renewed upward momentum to ease, although geopolitical events are likely to curb downside momentum and prevent a sudden collapse in prices,” they said.

Analysts at Citi said considering the reduction in fund positioning while gold prices are up in early April, it suggests that the rally in the early part of the month was not from speculative activity.

“However, with the release of FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes on April 9th suggesting that the U.S. economy might continue to require monetary stimulus for some time, plus a re-escalation of Ukraine-Russia tensions, we expect a reversal of the downtrend in net-long positions over the next week,” Citi analysts said.

Managed-money accounts saw only a slight reduction in their net-long silver holdings, with the position falling to 5,429 contracts, which remains the lowest position since early February when they were briefly net-short silver. They added 140 gross longs, but added 293 gross shorts. Producers raised their net-short position when they added more gross shorts than gross longs. Swap dealers turned modestly net-long as they added gross longs and cut gross shorts.

In the legacy report, the silver net-long for non-commercials rose to 13,023 contracts as they added new bullish positions and cut bearish ones. Gross longs rose by 942 contracts and gross shorts fell by 961 contracts. Commercials are net-short, and hiked that position by adding more gross shorts than gross longs.

Managed-money accounts in platinum raised their net-long position to 31,730 contracts as they added 902 gross longs and cut 937 shorts. Non-commercials in platinum also boosted their net-long position in the legacy report, to 43,792 contracts, having added 1,139 gross longs and cut 1,323 gross shorts.

TD Securities said speculative traders in platinum added long positions and cut shorts based on continuing South African supply concerns.

Large speculators’ net-long palladium holdings fell. In the disaggregated report, the managed-money accounts slightly decreased their net-long position to 19,921 contracts by cutting 1,629 gross longs and 818 gross shorts. The palladium legacy report saw non-commercials trim 1,184 gross longs and 894 gross shorts, trimming their net-long to 23,019 contracts, a modest reduction from the week prior.

“Palladium specs (speculators) exited from both longs and shorts, seemingly linked to an outsized position liquidation during the large selloff this past Monday that rattled prices,” TDS said.

In the copper disaggregated report, managed-money accounts are net-short 13,419 contracts, a reduction from the week prior. They added 198 gross longs and cut 6,161 gross shorts. In the legacy report, funds are now net-short 18,404 contracts of copper, having added 51 gross longs and cut 7,288 gross shorts.

Standard Chartered analysts said funds covered short positions as prices stabilized and edged higher. “We expect this upward price trend to continue,” they said.

For further information, see the CFTC’s website.
 
Citi: Investors ‘Taking Commodities More Seriously’ As Portfolio Diversifier

Monday April 14, 2014 11:45 AM

Investors are returning to commodities, says Citi Research. Passive commodity index swap trading data for the first week of the second quarter suggest net inflows of $800 million amid roughly 1.7% total returns for both the Dow Jones-UBS and SPGSCI benchmarks, Citi says. Combined with listed commodity-linked exchange-traded funds, year-to-date total inflows are $5.8 billion, Citi says. While this represents only a 12% recovery of new investment money after $50 billion of net redemptions across the passive indexes in 2013, the data does suggest some stability for the asset class, which has rallied 8.5% compared to a 1.5% loss for U.S. equities in the year to date, Citi says. “Investors appear to be taking commodities more seriously as a portfolio diversifier as positive correlations with traditional asset markets have unwound and commodities have lost their tight negative correlation with the U.S. dollar,” Citi says. By Allen Sykora of Kitco News;

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-04-14/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets-April-14.html
 
Palladium Price Highest Since 2011 Due To Russian Worries, South African Strike
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News
Monday April 14, 2014 11:22 AM

(Kitco News) - Palladium futures hit their highest level since 2011 on Monday as heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia and Ukraine have exacerbated supply worries at a time when a major strike is occurring in South Africa.

Some analysts look for further gains over the longer term, while others described themselves as constructive but offered caution with so much bullish news already factored into prices.

As of 10:37 a.m. EDT, palladium for June delivery was $9.20, or 1.1%, higher to $816 per ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded as high as $817, which is the strongest level since August 2011 on a futures continuation chart. Sister metal July platinum was up $7.70, or 0.5%, to $1,470.30 an ounce.

The news flow boosting prices is largely the same as in recent weeks – the Ukraine-Russia geopolitical crisis and strikes in South Africa -- but the metal keeps stair-stepping higher as both news stories continue to play out.

“It’s worries about the supply side,” said one North American trader. He said the premium on sponge, which is metal in a powder form used for industrial purposes, is up to around $12 an ounce for palladium and around $4 to $5 an ounce for platinum.

Pro-Russian protestors are still occupying government buildings in eastern Ukraine after a government deadline passed for the demonstrators to leave. The world is watching to see what the Ukrainian and Russian governments do next in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of the Crimean region of Ukraine.

The potential for further Russian involvement adds to worries about potential Western trade and economic sanctions against Russia, which is the world’s largest palladium producer.

“It’s such an unknown and it creates uncertainty,” said Bill O’Neill, one of the principals with LOGIC Advisors. “I see no evidence of any kind of supply interruption (from Russia) at this point, but that’s the fear the market has.”

In particular, traders wonder if Russia’s Norilsk Nickel, a major nickel company but also the world’s largest palladium producer, will have trouble selling metal and funding exploration and production down the road, said Bart Melek, head of commodities strategy with TD Securities.

“This (palladium) is a market already in a fairly large (supply) deficit, and this just makes it worse,” Melek said.

The Russian worries come during a lengthy disruption of supplies of platinum group metals as a result of a strike by the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union against three major producers in South Africa. The labor action began in late January.

The Russian and South African concerns caused an outsized move on a small market such as palladium since most of the world’s metal come from just two countries, O’Neill pointed out. According to the Johnson Matthey data last year, Russia provided 2.6 million ounces of global palladium mine output in 2013 and South Africa accounted for 2.3 million. Third and fourth places on the list were far behind – North America with 930,000 ounces and Zimbabwe with 310,000.

Goldman Sachs, in a report released Sunday, said Western nations may be most likely to impose sanctions against Russian exports of metals that make up a small portion of the global supply, such as copper and aluminum. However, the bank also said there is potential for Russia to withhold metals such as palladium in “counter sanctions,” since it commands so much of the world’s supply of a metal essential to the global auto market due to its use in catalytic converters.

The bullish news flow comes after two palladium-backed exchange-traded funds were launched in South Africa this spring, taking more metal off of the open market. The ETFs trade like stocks but are backed by palladium put into storage. The two ETFs had inflows of some 270,000 ounces, or 7.6 metric tons, during their first two weeks, according to a morning metals report from TDS.

TD Securities forecasts a 2014 palladium supply deficit of 1.6 million ounces. Earlier this month, HSBC forecast a supply deficit of 959,000 ounces.

More Price Gains Seen But Some Favor Buying On Pullbacks

Many analysts see further price gains. Melek said he sees longer-term strength even if the Ukraine-Russia crisis quiets down, particularly if the U.S. economy continues to improve. A report Monday morning showed U.S. retail sales jumped 1.1% last month for the biggest gain since September 2012. Auto sales jumped 3.1%.

Melek listed a TDS average price forecast of $825 an ounce for palladium in the third quarter and $850 for the fourth. HSBC, in its most recent forecast released on April 3, forecast an average 2014 price of $825, then $900 next year.

O’Neill said he considers the supply/demand fundamentals for both platinum and palladium to be strong, but nevertheless offered some caution about the upside in palladium from current prices.

“I like the market in general,” he said. “But at these levels, it (further price gains) is dependent on having continued problems….I think the way to trade the market is to buy weakness.

“Buying spikes is dangerous in any market and certainly this. But buying weakness is the way to go.”

One potential complication would be if gold were to go suddenly sell off, he pointed out. The yellow metal is the bellwether for the precious complex and often pulls the others with it on sympathy selling and buying.

One way to trade the uncertainty, O’Neill continued, would be to establish a spread position in which a trader buys platinum and sells gold in equal amounts. Then if say both were to decline but platinum by a less amount, the trader would still be left with a profit.
 
P.M. Kitco Roundup: Gold Ends Up, At 3-Week High, On Safe-Haven Demand And Technical Buying

Monday April 14, 2014 2:04 PM

(Kitco News) - Gold prices finished the U.S. day session higher and hit a three-week high Monday. The market was boosted on safe-haven buying interest, technical buying and short covering. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict prompted the safe-haven bid, while the improving chart picture for gold caused the technical buying and short covering. June gold was last up $8.60 at $1,327.60 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $9.20 at $1,328.00. May Comex silver last traded up $0.049 at $19.995 an ounce.

Russia-Ukraine tensions are back on the front burner. During the weekend Ukrainian troops were mobilized to counter a surging pro-Russia movement by protesters who have tried to occupy some Ukraine cities. Ukraine government officials have accused Russia of instigating and even arming the protesters. Meantime, Russian troops are still massed on the Russia-Ukraine border. The NATO secretary-general last week those troops appear ready to move on short notice. This situation has flared up and once again has become a potential geopolitical flash point. There are also questions regarding how the U.S. will react to the latest developments in the region. It’s very likely this conflict will remain a major markets-moving factor for at least the rest of this week. This will at the least limit selling interest in gold for the near term, if not be outright supportive for upside price action.

In other news Monday, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said Saturday the recent strength of the Euro currency could prompt fresh easing of ECB monetary policy, in order to keep deflationary pressures on the EU economy in check. This news dropped the Euro and supported the U.S. dollar index.

The featured U.S. economic report of the day was retail sales data for March, which came in better than expected, but had little impact on the precious metals.

Technically, June gold futures prices closed nearer the session high Monday and hit a fresh three-week high. Bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term technical playing field, but the bulls have momentum on their side. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $1,331.40 and then at $1,340.00. First support is seen at Monday’s low of $1,318.70 and then at Friday’s low of $1,314.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0

May silver futures prices closed nearer the session high on tepid short covering in a bear market. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $20.40 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $19.575. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $20.14 and then at $20.25. Next support is seen at Monday’s low of $19.72 and then at last week’s low of $19.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

May N.Y. copper closed up 5 points at 304.20 cents Monday. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 310.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 297.65 cents. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 306.15 cents and then at last week’s high of 308.00 cents. First support is seen at 302.50 cents and then at 300.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
 
GOLD UND ROHÖL
Gold: Eskalation in der Ukraine sorgt für Angstkäufe


Mit der Meldung von ersten Todesopfern in der Ostukraine gab es eine Fluchtbewegung ins gelbe Edelmetall zu beobachten.

von Jörg Bernhard

Der ukrainische Übergangspräsident Alexander Turtschinow hat Russland vorgeworfen, einen Krieg gegen sein Land zu führen. Mit einem groß angelegten Anti-Terror-Einsatz will man nun die Separatisten zur Aufgabe zwingen. Gold zieht als Krisenwährung dadurch verstärkt Kapital an. Die Ankündigung von EZB-Präsident Draghi im Falle eines weiterhin starken Euro weitere geldpolitische Maßnahmen zu ergreifen, sorgten bei dem Edelmetall für zusätzlichen Rückenwind. Ein starker Euro würde die Deflationsgefahr erhöhen, erklärte Draghi am Samstag bei der Frühjahrstagung des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) und der Weltbank in Washington.
Am Montagvormittag präsentierte sich der Goldpreis mit höheren Notierungen. Bis gegen 7.25 Uhr (MESZ) verteuerte sich der am aktivsten gehandelte Future auf Gold (Juni) um 7,40 auf 1.326,40 Dollar pro Feinunze.

Rohöl: Positive Vorzeichen zum Wochenstart

Der drohende Bürgerkrieg in der Ostukraine ließ auch den Ölpreis steigen. Sollten die Energielieferungen der Russen, aufgrund der Ukraine-Krise gestört werden, droht dem Ölpreis eine weitere Verteuerung. Dies würde vor allem die Nordseemarke Brent betreffen. Am Nachmittag stehen zudem wichtige Einzelhandelszahlen aus den USA (14.30 Uhr) zur Bekanntgabe an. Laut einer Bloomberg-Umfrage unter Analysten soll es gegenüber dem Vormonat einen Anstieg um ein Prozent gegeben haben. Zur Erinnerung: Im Februar lag das Wachstum bei lediglich 0,3 Prozent.
Am Montagvormittag präsentierte sich der Ölpreis mit leicht anziehenden Notierungen. Bis gegen 7.25 Uhr (MESZ) verteuerte sich der nächstfällige WTI-Kontrakt um 0,52 auf 104,26 Dollar, während sein Pendant auf Brent um 0,56 auf 107,89 Dollar anzog.
 
VERSORGUNGSENGPÄSSEN MÖGLICH
Ölpreise steigen - Ukraine-Krise schürt Angebotssorgen


Die Ölpreise sind am Montag gestiegen. Die Eskalation der Lage in der Ost-Ukraine schüre Sorgen vor Versorgungsengpässen in Europa, sagten Händler.

Ein Barrel (159 Liter) der Nordseesorte Brent zur Lieferung im Mai kostete am Morgen 107,91 US-Dollar. Das waren 58 Cent mehr als am Freitag. Der Preis für ein Fass der amerikanischen Sorte WTI stieg um 51 Cent auf 104,27 Dollar.

In der Ostukraine spitzt sich die Lage weiterhin gefährlich zu. Am Montagmorgen (8.00 Uhr MESZ) endet ein Ultimatum der Übergangsregierung in Kiew an die prorussischen Separatisten, die Waffen niederzulegen und die besetzten Verwaltungsgebäude zu räumen. Am Ölmarkt reagieren Investoren empfindlich auf den Konflikt. Die Ukraine ist eine wichtige Durchgangsstation für Ölexporte in den Westen. Russland ist der größte Energieproduzent der Welt./hbr/fbr
 
SORGE VOR ESKALATION
Ukraine-Krise hebt Goldpreis auf Drei-Wochenhoch


Die erneute Eskalation der Ukraine-Krise hat Investoren zu Beginn der Woche in sichere Anlagehäfen getrieben.

Am Montagmorgen stieg der Goldpreis nach einer gefährlichen Zuspitzung in der Ostukraine auf den höchsten Stand seit drei Wochen. Im Vergleich zum Freitag kletterte der Preis pro Feinunze (etwa 31,1 Gramm) zeitweise um fast zehn Dollar bis auf 1329,65 US-Dollar. Seit Beginn des Jahres hat der Goldpreis um mehr als zehn Prozent zugelegt.

Die Sorge vor einer neuen Eskalation in der Ukraine ist derzeit die treibende Kraft beim Goldpreis, sagte ein australischer Rohstoffexperte. Zuletzt hatten prorussische Separatisten am Morgen ein Ultimatum der Regierung in Kiew verstreichen lassen, ohne zuvor besetzte Verwaltungsgebäude zu räumen. Moskau warnte die Ukraine nachdrücklich vor einem Militäreinsatz, der zu einem Bürgerkrieg führen könne. Im UN-Sicherheitsrat warfen die USA in New York am Sonntagabend Russland vor, für die blutigen Kämpfe in der Ostukraine verantwortlich zu sein.

Rohstoffexperten der Commerzbank sehen aber auch die schwachen Aktienmärkte als Preistreiber am Goldmarkt. Zudem stütze die Aussicht auf eine längere Phase mit extrem niedrigen Zinsen in den USA den Goldpreis. Aus dem Protokoll der letzten Zinsentscheidung der US-Notenbank wird deutlich, dass die erste Zinserhöhung nach der schweren Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise frühestens Mitte 2015 erfolgen wird. Vor der Veröffentlichung des Protokolls hatten die Finanzmärkte auf einen früheren Zeitraum spekuliert./jkr/hbr
 
PLATIN, PALLADIUM UND ROHÖL
Platin & Palladium: Stark dank Russland und Südafrika


Der seit mehreren Monaten andauernde Streik der Minenarbeiter in Südafrika sowie drohende Wirtschaftssanktionen gegen Russland sorgen bei Platin und Palladium für kräftigen Aufwind.

von Jörg Bernhard

Die beiden zum Bau von Autokatalysatoren besonders stark benötigten Edelmetalle Platin und Palladium haben sich mit plus 5,8 bzw. 11,7 Prozent seit dem Jahreswechsel besonders freundlich entwickelt und zuletzt Mehrjahreshochs markiert. Und die Party scheint weiterzugehen. Zum einen, weil die Automobilkonjunktur in China und den USA ausgesprochen rund läuft. Selbst in Europa zieht die Kfz-Nachfrage wieder an. Zum anderen reagieren die Marktakteure derzeit aber besonders sensibel auf die Probleme in Südafrika und Russland. Beide Länder gehören in diesem Marktsegment zu den weltweit wichtigsten Playern. Während am Kap ein Streik der Minenarbeiter für Verunsicherung sorgt, befürchten viele Händler angesichts der Zuspitzung der Krise in der Ukraine Handelssanktionen gegen Russland und damit eine weitere Verknappung des Angebots. Am Montagnachmittag präsentierten sich beide Edelmetalle mit anziehenden Notierungen. Bis gegen 15.00 Uhr (MESZ) verteuerte sich der am aktivsten gehandelte Future auf Platin (Juli) um 4,70 auf 1.467,30 Dollar, während sein Pendant auf Palladium (Juni) um 8,20 auf 815,00 Dollar pro Feinunze anzog.

Rohöl: US-Einzelhandelszahlen überraschen positiv

Die am Nachmittag veröffentlichten März-Zahlen zum US-Einzelhandel fielen etwas besser als erwartet aus. Gegenüber dem Vormonat setzte die Branche 1,1 Prozent mehr um. Damit fiel das Wachstum etwas höher als erwartet aus. Aus charttechnischer Sicht wachsen nun vor allem bei der US-Sorte WTI die Widerstände. Einerseits verläuft im Bereich von 104,50 Dollar eine signifikante charttechnische Hürde, andererseits bewegt sich der Timingindikator Relative-Stärke-Index in Richtung überkaufte Zone, was die Gefahr einer technischen Korrektur deutlich erhöht.
Am Montagnachmittag präsentierte sich der Ölpreis mit uneinheitlichen Notierungen. Bis gegen 15.00 Uhr (MESZ) ermäßigte sich der nächstfällige WTI-Kontrakt um 0,07 auf 103,67 Dollar, während sein Pendant auf Brent um 0,77 auf 108,10 Dollar anzog
 
14.04.2014 11:33 | Eugen Weinberg
Eskalation in der Ukraine hält Rohstoffmärkte in Atem

Energie

Die Ölpreise reagieren auf die Zuspitzung der Krise in der Ostukraine mit Gewinnen. Brent steigt am Morgen über die Marke von 108 USD je Barrel auf das höchste Niveau seit Ende März. WTI erreicht mit 104,5 USD je Barrel ein 6-Wochenhoch. Zum Preisanstieg dürften auch spekulative Finanzanleger beigetragen haben. Diese haben ihre Netto-Long-Positionen bei WTI bereits in der Woche zum 8. April um 26,1 Tsd. Kontrakte erhöht. Die Preisdifferenz zwischen Brent und WTI hat sich auf etwas mehr als 3 USD je Barrel verringert und ist damit so niedrig wie zuletzt im September 2013.

Angesichts rekordhoher Rohöllagerbestände an der US-Golfküste sehen wir das Potenzial für einen weiteren Rückgang der Preisdifferrenz als nahezu ausgereizt. Im Falle einer Unterbrechung der Öl- und Gaslieferungen aus Russland sollte in erster Linie Brent profitieren. Russlands Präsident Putin hat zwar bekräftigt, dass Russland seinen Lieferverpflichtungen gegenüber seinen europäischen Abnehmern nachkommen wird. Allerdings wollen die EU-Außenminister heute über schärfere Sanktionen gegen Russland beraten.

Die bevorstehende Wiederaufnahme der Öllieferungen aus zwei Häfen im Osten Libyens dürfte dagegen kaum ins Gewicht fallen, da diese nur über eine Exportkapazität von zusammen 200 Tsd. Barrel pro Tag verfügen. Die beiden größten Häfen des Landes mit einer täglichen Kapazität von insgesamt 500 Tsd. Barrel pro Tag sind nach wie vor von Rebellen besetzt und geschlossen. Dass die Lage in Libyen weiterhin schwierig bleibt, zeigt der Rücktritt des Interims-Ministerpräsidenten am Wochenende nach nur einem Monat im Amt.


Edelmetalle

Der Goldpreis steigt wegen der Zuspitzung der Lage in der Ukraine und der anhaltenden Korrektur an den Aktienmärkten heute Morgen auf ein 3-Wochenhoch von 1.330 USD je Feinunze. Ein Teil des Anstiegs könnte auf die spekulativen Finanzinvestoren zurückzuführen sein, nachdem diese in der Woche zum 8. April ihre Netto-Long-Positionen die dritte Woche in Folge reduziert hatten. Mit 81,5 Tsd. Kontrakten lagen die Netto-Long-Positionen auf dem tiefsten Stand seit sieben Wochen.

Auch könnten China und Indien zum Preisanstieg beigetragen haben. In den letzten Tagen wurde gemutmaßt, dass Indien bereits im März wieder deutlich mehr Gold importiert hat. Preise unterhalb von 1.300 USD wurden offensichtlich als attraktive Kaufgelegenheiten erachtet. Die physische Nachfrage scheint somit stärker zu sein als bislang vermutet. Der abermalige Abfluss aus den Gold-ETFs von 2,6 Tonnen am Freitag fiel dagegen nicht ins Gewicht.

Palladium ist mittlerweile auf den höchsten Stand seit August 2011 gestiegen. Neben einer robusten Autonachfrage und den Ängsten vor Wirtschaftssanktionen gegen Russland, die womöglich auch die Palladiumlieferungen einschränken könnten, hat vor allem die Situation in Südafrika Auftrieb gegeben. Denn während die Minenproduktion dort streikbedingt seit über 11 Wochen stillgelegt ist, kaufen die Investoren den physischen Markt "leer".

Die zwei neuen physisch gedeckten Palladium-ETFs haben in knapp zwei Wochen über 280 Tsd. Unzen bzw. 12% der Jahresminenproduktion Südafrikas aufgekauft. Wir gehen davon aus, dass diese Faktoren weiter für Unterstützung und steigende Preise sorgen werden.

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Industriemetalle

Mit Ausnahme von Nickel, das seinen Preisanstieg weiter fortsetzt, treten die Industriemetalle zu Wochenbeginn weitgehend auf der Stelle. Offenbar nehmen die Marktteilnehmer im Vorfeld wichtiger Konjunkturdaten in China im Wochenverlauf - es wird unter anderem das BIP für das erste Quartal veröffentlicht - eine abwartende Haltung ein. Kupfer ist es bislang nicht gelungen, nachhaltig die Marke von 6.700 USD je Tonne zu überwinden.

Das rote Metall bewegt sich vielmehr seit mittlerweile über zwei Wochen seitwärts in einer relativ engen Handelsspanne. Auch die Eindeckung von Short-Positionen der spekulativen Finanzanleger hat dem Preis keinen Auftrieb verliehen. Mit Netto-Short-Positionen von 13,4 Tsd. Kontrakten bleibt diese Anlegergruppe weiterhin pessimistisch gegenüber Kupfer eingestellt.

Der Zinnpreis hat sich klar über der Marke von 23.000 USD je Tonne etabliert. Wie das Handelsministerium heute Morgen berichtete, hat Indonesien im März nur 5.848 Tonnen Zinn exportiert. Dies entsprach in etwa dem Februar-Niveau, lag aber 37% unter dem Vorjahreswert. Als weltgrößter Zinnexporteur müsste Indonesien eigentlich jeden Monat rund 8.000 Tonnen Zinn ausführen, damit sich am Weltmarkt Angebot und Nachfrage ausgleichen. Der globale Zinnmarkt zeigt sich also weiterhin relativ angespannt, was für anhaltend hohe Preise spricht. Ein deutlicherer Preisrückgang dürfte außerdem durch die indonesische Handelspolitik verhindert werden.


Agrarrohstoffe

Der Weizenpreis an der CBOT reagiert auf die Zuspitzung der Krise in der Ukraine mit einem Anstieg um knapp 4% auf 689 US-Cents je Scheffel. Im Falle einer weiteren Verschärfung der Spannungen zwischen der Ukraine und Russland wird eine Beeinträchtigung der Weizenlieferungen aus der Schwarzmeerregion befürchtet, was die Nachfrage nach Weizen aus anderen Exportländern erhöhen würde. Die Ukraine und Russland stellen in diesem Erntejahr laut aktueller Schätzung des US-Landwirtschaftsministeriums zusammen knapp 20% der weltweiten Weizenexporte. Allerdings ist der Großteil der Exporte bereits abgewickelt, so dass die Sorge vor einer nennenswerten Verknappung des Angebots überzogen ist und der Preis die Gewinne zumindest teilweise wieder abgeben dürfte.

Auswirkungen der Krise auf das Weizenangebot im kommenden Erntejahr lassen sich im Moment noch nicht abschätzen. Wesentlich gelassener reagiert der Maispreis, obwohl die Ukraine mit einem Anteil von 16% an den weltweiten Exporten laut USDA der drittgrößte Maisanbieter ist. Auch der Weizenpreis an der Liffe in Paris reagiert kaum, obwohl EU-Weizen im Falle von Lieferunterbrechungen stärker profitieren müsste als US-Weizen.

Unterstützung erhält der US-Weizenpreis allerdings auch von der Vorhersage niedriger Temperaturen in wichtigen US-Anbaugebieten. Dadurch könnte sich die ohnehin bereits niedrige Bewertung der US-Winterweizenpflanzen weiter verschlechtern. Diese lag Anfang April auf einem 12-Jahrestief. Neue Einschätzungen zum Pflanzenzustand bei Winterweizen und zur Aussat von Mais gibt das USDA heute Abend bekannt.

http://goldseiten.de/artikel/203270...ne-haelt-Rohstoffmaerkte-in-Atem.html?seite=2
 
14.04.2014 09:15 | Redaktion
Shanghai Gold Exchange ruft Goldleasing-Plattform ins Leben

Schon Ende Juni dieses Jahres soll an der Shanghai Gold Exchange, der größten Goldbörse Chinas, das Leasing von Gold zum Alltagsgeschäft werden, wie Bloomberg unter Berufung auf die Aussagen des Abteilungsmanagers Teng Wei meldete.

Über 20 Banken und andere Finanzinstitutionen, darunter die United Overseas Bank Ltd. oder auch die Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. hätten bereits von den Goldleasing-Kontrakten Gebrauch gemacht, die seit Februar von der Börse gefördert würden, so Teng Wei. Aufgrund der steigenden Teilnehmerzahl wolle man nun eine Plattform schaffen, um die Leasing-Geschäfte zu standardisieren und die Transaktionskosten zu senken.

Ganz ungefährlich ist diese Art der Goldgeschäfte nach Ansicht vieler Experten jedoch nicht. Wiederholt wurde Goldleasing, das es Goldbesitzern erlaubt, ihr Edelmetall für einen festgelegten Zeitraum gegen Bargeld einzutauschen, mit der Manipulation des Goldpreises in Verbindung gebracht. © Redaktion GoldSeiten.de
 
14.04.2014 11:05 | Ole Hansen
Schwächelnde Aktienmärkte stützen Rohstoffe Matus Qurbany - 10:59

"Rohstoffe haben die dritte Woche in Folge zugelegt und sich dabei entgegengesetzt zum Abwärtstrend der Aktienmärkte entwickelt. Die wesentlichen Treiber waren ein schwacher Dollar, eine gemäßigte US-Notenbank sowie geopolitische und wetterbedingte Sorgen", sagt Ole Hansen, Rohstoffexperte bei der Saxo Bank. Alle Sektoren hätten überzeugt, wobei die Industriemetalle Nickel und Aluminium besonders zugelegt haben. Der DJ-UBS-Rohstoffindex, der ab Juli Bloomberg Commodity-Index heißen wird, ist um 1,4 Prozent gestiegen und hat damit ein Ein-Jahres-Hoch erreicht.

Wochensieger war Arabica-Kaffee. Grund dafür sei die extreme Dürre im Land des weltgrößten Produzenten Brasilien im Januar. Gold erholt sich weiterhin von seinem Ausverkauf im März. "Nachdem es das gelbe Metall geschafft hat den 1.300 USD-Kurs zu knacken, tastet es sich stetig aber noch nicht wirklich überzeugend an die nächsten wichtigen Widerstandsmarken heran", sagt Hansen. Auch wenn die Gold-ETFs in den letzten vier Wochen erneut Abflüsse verzeichnet hätten, sollten Edelmetalle wieder kurzfristig Unterstützung finden. "Die erneute Schwäche auf den Aktienmärkten und Sorgen über die Krise in der Ukraine sollten dabei helfen, den Goldkurs weiterhin bei über 1.300 USD pro Feinunze zu halten", sagt Hansen.

Die Rohölpreise sind zuletzt wieder gestiegen, nachdem geopolitische Sorgen die Auswirkungen von negativen Fundamentaldaten etwas abgeschwächt haben. Die Sorte WTI wurde von der starken Benzinnachfrage gestützt, jedoch seien die steigenden Lagerbestände in den USA gefährlich für die aktuelle Preisstärke. "Die Sorte Brent ist sehr sensibel im Hinblick auf prognostizierte weltweite Angebots- und Nachfrageveränderungen. Der mögliche Anstieg des Angebots aus Libyen zusammen mit der sinkenden Nachfrage aus Asien und China hat Brent stark zugesetzt und den Spread zum WTI auf nur noch 4 USD schrumpfen lassen", sagt Hansen abschließend.


Den vollständigen Kommentar von Ole S. Hansen auf Englisch finden Sie hier: "Rohstoffkommentar" (PDF) http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/upload/gs534ba59dbcf4c.pdf
© Saxo Bank
 
Goldman Reiterates $1,050/Oz Gold Call, Sees Potential For PGM Supply Disruptions

By Kitco News
Monday April 14, 2014 9:10 AM

(Kitco News) - Goldman Sachs reiterated its call for gold to decline this year as U.S. economic growth picks up and Treasury yields rise, but the bank listed potential for supply disruptions in platinum, palladium and nickel.

As they did on March 20, bank analysts listed a year-end gold forecast of $1,050 an ounce.

Gold has a stronger tone so far this year, and a Sunday report from Goldman attributed this to “poor, but likely weather-driven” U.S. macroeconomic data so far this year as well as geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine.

“As our economists are still confident in an acceleration in U.S. economic growth during the second half of this year, we continue to stand by our year-end gold price target of $1,050/toz,” Goldman said. “More broadly, we believe that with tapering of the Fed’s QE (quantitative easing), U.S. economic releases are back to being a key driving forcebehind gold prices. As a result, we expect that the decline in gold prices will likely be data dependent, in contrast to our 2013 bearish gold view which was driven by the disconnect between stretched long gold speculative positioning and stabilizing growth.”

Among other metals, Goldman said certain Russian metals – such as higher-value-added steel, copper and aluminum – could be under the threat of sanctions from Western nations. Exports of these commodities are “non-trivial” at $19 billion, or 1% of Russia’s gross domestic product, while sanctions on these would likely have a “relatively minimal impact” on European and U.S. economic growth, considering Russia’s modest share of global output and high global inventory levels, Goldman said.

Meanwhile, Goldman suggested Russian exports of other metals such as platinum, palladium and nickel may be less likely to face Western sanctions since they may be difficult to replace in European and U.S. markets given their large shares of global output. However, this in turn could mean these metals become potential targets of Russian “counter sanctions,” Goldman said.

“Palladium, in particular, is a crucial and not substitutable input into the global car industry,” Goldman said.

The bank’s report did not list forecasts for the platinum group metals but did for nickel, which is also drawing support from an Indonesian ore export ban. Prices could rise to $18,000 to $20,000 a ton if Indonesia should not back down from the ban quickly following July presidential elections, the bank said. Three-month metal was at $17,495 as of 8:41 a.m. EDT.

However, Goldman’s 12-month forecast is $16,000 a ton, with the bank saying an Indonesia ore ban will not be sustainable in the long run, with China likely to aggressively build out blast-furnace nickel pig iron capacity over the next two years.

Goldman’s other 12-month forecasts for metals included aluminum, $1,750 a metric ton; copper, $6,200 a ton; zinc, $2,100 a ton; lead $2,300 a ton; and silver, $17.50 an ounce.

Overall for commodities as an asset class, Goldman said it maintained a near-term neutral recommendation with a minus 2% three-month return and an underweight recommendation on a 12-month basis with a minus 4% return.

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News;
 
UPDATE 1-China may have 1,000 tonnes of gold tied in financing - WGC

Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:42am EDT

* Estimates imply strong imports driven by trade financing deals

* Imported gold used via loans, LCs to raise low cost funds

* Total China demand to grow 25 pct over four years (Adds comments from Chinese banks, analysts)

By A. Ananthalakshmi

SINGAPORE, April 15 (Reuters) - Chinese firms could have locked up as much as 1,000 tonnes of gold in financing deals, an industry report said, indicating a big slice of imports has been used to raise funds due to tight credit conditions, rather than to meet consumer demand.

The financing-related buying in the world's top gold consumer means prices could come under pressure if imports are hit by a broader crackdown on using commodities for finance.

The report - issued by the World Gold Council (WGC) on Tuesday - and other sources in China said gold was not as widely used for raising money as copper, which saw prices drop to a 3-1/2 year low in March on fears that those deals would unravel.

"Imported gold is being used via gold loans and letters of credit (LC) to raise low cost funds for business investment and speculation," the report said.

"The use of gold for purely financial operations is a form of demand that represents a small part of the much wider growth in shadow banking. It is feasible that by the end of 2013 this could have reached a cumulative 1,000 tonnes."

That accounts for almost a third of annual global production and is worth about $43 billion at current prices.

The estimates come from Precious Metals Insights, a Hong Kong-based consultancy commissioned for the survey on China.

"If that number is accurate, it is significant because an unwind of that is equivalent to a year's worth of (Chinese) imports," said Victor Thianpiriya, an analyst at ANZ Singapore.

"Having said that, it's unlikely that it would flood the market in one go, and over time I think there is enough demand in China to absorb it."

The practice of importing gold simply to raise funds is being conducted by wealthy individuals and firms for cheap short-term financing either for business or speculation to circumvent capital controls, the WGC report said.

It can be used for real estate purchases, or to speculate in higher yielding assets, and interest rate or currency arbitrage.

Other than using gold only for funding needs, the metal is also used widely by bullion producers and jewellery makers as collateral for loans.

Most of the gold in financing had been built up since 2011, the report said, with borrowers typically hedging the gold risk.

Data from Hong Kong shows that China's gold imports started rising dramatically from 2011. (For a graphic link.reuters.com/waq74v)

"We think that the rapid growth of the market size of gold trading between China and Hong Kong created from 2009 to 2013 (from below $5 billion to roughly $70 billion) is most likely driven by gold financing deals," Goldman Sachs said in a note in March.

The WGC report forecast Chinese gold demand would grow by 25 percent to at least 1,350 tonnes by 2017, though growth in 2014 could be limited after record amounts of buying last year.

NOT AS BIG AS COPPER

Chinese firms have been using various commodities to obtain credit after restrictions on traditional sources. Copper, iron ore, rubber, soybeans are all being used alongside gold.

China has up to $160 billion of outstanding loans using commodities as collateral, about 31 percent of the country's short-term foreign exchange loans, according to Goldman Sachs.

Last month, copper and iron ore prices took a hit on concerns that an increasing crackdown on such financing models could release a huge amount of stock into the market.

Goldman estimates that up to 1 million tonnes of copper and 30 million tonnes of iron ore is tied up in financing deals.

"I do not think there is large scale gold trade-financing deals like in copper," said Jiang Shu, an analyst with Industrial Bank, one of the few gold-importing banks in China.

Import quotas and a limited number of banks allowed to import meant gold would not be a popular choice for commodity financing deals, he added.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) strictly controls gold imports through quotas, with only 12 banks allowed to import.

China imported a record 1,160 tonnes of gold from main conduit Hong Kong last year, in addition to about 428 tonnes of local production. The WGC has said Chinese demand in 2013 was about 1,066 tonnes, leaving the industry guessing about the "surplus" of about 522 tonnes.

The report said that the surplus in the market could either be from official sector purchases such as central bank buying or the extensive use of gold for financial operations.

"While there is some uncertainty about whether there have been official purchases of gold in the domestic market, such doubts do not exist when it comes to the large-scale use of gold for purely financial operations in China," the report said.

"Unless either the PBOC cracks down more severely and effectively on commodity financing or the credit allocation and pricing system in China is improved, substantial amounts of gold may continue to be imported and tied up in financial operations." (Editing by Ed Davies)
 
Gold slides as strong dollar, U.S. retail sales weigh
Other metals decline as well; silver falls 0.9%


By Sara Sjolin, MarketWatch

LONDON (MarketWatch) — Reversing yesterday’s gains, gold prices moved sharply lower on Tuesday as investors reconsidered the solid U.S. retail sales for March and a stronger U.S. dollar made dollar-denominated commodities less attractive for investors.

Gold for June delivery GCM4 -2.28% dropped $16.40, or 1.2%, to $1,311.30 an ounce, erasing a $8.50 gain from Monday.

The contract on Tuesday suffered from a stronger dollar that made metals traded in the greenback more expensive for other currency holders. The ICE dollar index DXY +0.07% rose to 79.838, from 79.741 late Monday, when the currency also advanced after better-than-expected U.S. retail sales.

Economists at Commerzbank said in a note they would expect gold prices to advance due to the rising tensions in Ukraine, but that the retail-sales data “are obviously having a greater impact on investors.” Prices should stabilize shortly, however, the economists said.

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“The U.S. inflation rate, which is likely to have risen again in March, could already contribute to this today. This should contribute to lower real interest rates and thus lower opportunity costs for holding gold,” they said.

U.S. inflation data will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

Elsewhere in the metals spectrum, silver for May delivery SIK4 -2.77% declined 17 cents, or 0.9%, to $19.84 an ounce. Palladium for June PAM4 -2.51% slid $11.65, or 1.4%, to $799.85 an ounce, while sister metal July platinum PLN4 -1.97% shaved off $18.60, or 1.3%, to $1,448.70 an ounce.

High-grade copper for May delivery HGK4 -2.08% fell 2 cents, or 0.5%, to $3.03 a pound.
 
Citi Sees Pickup In Chinese Demand For Commodities

Tuesday April 15, 2014 9:02 AM

Chinese commodity demand has reached a short-term macroeconomic cyclical bottom and growth should pick up as the year progresses, says Citi Research. “Recent weeks have seen signals of increasing government concern over growth rates and a desire to provide support, including infrastructure investment, tax cuts and social housing programs,” Citi says. “We expect these and further measures to provide a moderate boost to H2 commodity demand, but do not expect a large stimulus along the lines of 2012, much less than seen in 2008-2009.” While credit conditions remain tight, they have not become any tighter in recent months, Citi points out. “While virtually every commodity should benefit, the most leveraged commodities to an expected improvement in Chinese demand are: steel, iron ore, met coal, zinc, copper, soybeans, LNG, naphtha, and fuel oil,” Citi says. “However, incorporating supply considerations, we believe steel, zinc, copper, and LNG provide the best exposure to an improvement in Chinese demand.” By Allen Sykora of Kitco News;

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-04-15/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets-April-15.html
 
Where are the Stops? Tuesday, April 15: Gold and Silver

Tuesday April 15, 2014 08:56

Below are today's likely price locations of buy and sell stop orders for the active Comex gold and silver futures markets. The asterisks (**) denote the most critical stop order placement level of the day (or likely where the heaviest concentration of stop orders are placed on this day).

See below a detailed explanation of stop orders and why knowing, beforehand, where they are likely located can be beneficial to a trader.

June Gold Buy Stops Sell Stops
$1,300.00 $1,284.40
**$1,310.00 $1,280.00
$1,320.00 **$1,277.40
$1,328.40 $1,270.00
May Silver Buy Stops Sell Stops
$19.50 $19.22
$19.75 $19.00
**$20.00 **$18.80
$20.14 $18.50
 
A.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Sharply Lower On Profit Taking, Sell Stops, Firmer U.S. Dollar

Tuesday April 15, 2014 8:26 AM

(Kitco News) - Surprisingly, the gold market is under strong selling pressure in early U.S. trading Tuesday--despite the tensions in Ukraine being ratcheted up at least one notch overnight. Gold had recently rallied on safe-haven demand due to the geopolitical unrest. Sell stop orders were triggered on Tuesday’s downdraft that accelerated just after the Comex futures market opened. This week’s firmer U.S. dollar index can be explained as one factor putting downside price pressure on gold Tuesday, along with profit taking and a corrective pullback from the recent gains that saw gold prices hit a three-week high Monday. June gold was last down $35.10 at $1,292.50 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $34.60 at $1,292.50. May Comex silver last traded down $0.655 at $19.36 an ounce.

Gold’s price action Tuesday is a reminder of the age-old saying: “Markets can and will do anything and everything to frustrate the largest number of traders.” Still, it’s my bias that gold price action will get upside support if the Russia-Ukraine crisis further escalates. During the European Union sovereign debt crisis that helped to drive gold to its all-time high a few years ago there were days when gold prices were sharply lower even though the EU debt crisis had new and seemingly gold-bullish developments. Still, Tuesday’s price action in gold is confounding to many market watchers.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis is the dominant market theme this week. The latest development overnight saw the Ukrainian president order his troops to regain control of the cities in eastern Ukraine that had been taken over by pro-Russia rebels. Ukraine government officials have accused Russia of instigating and even arming the protesters. There is also uncertainty regarding how the U.S. will react to the latest developments in the region. This conflict will remain a major markets-moving factor for at least the rest of this week.

In other overnight news, the key German economic reading, the Zew economic expectations index, came in at 43.2 in April, down from 46.6 in March. The decline was more than what forecasters were expecting and mostly due to worries about the Ukraine-Russia confrontation. However, the Zew current conditions index rose to its highest level in three years in April, coming in at 59.5 versus 51.3 in March. Germany is the strongest economy in the European Union.

Traders and investors are awaiting key economic data from China on Wednesday, including its gross domestic product reading. China is the world’s largest consumer of raw commodities.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the consumer price index, the Empire State manufacturing survey, Treasury international capital data, and the NAHB housing market index.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.5 (The Russia-Ukraine tensions are squarely on the front burner of the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,311.50 versus the P.M. fixing of $1,325.75.

Technically, June Comex gold bears have quickly reclaimed the level near-term technical advantage with Tuesday’s strong selling pressure. Prices Tuesday dropped below the key 200-day moving average that is closely watched by many chartists. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,331.40. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below technical support at the April low of $1,277.40. First resistance is seen at $1,300.00 and then at $1,310.00. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $1,284.40 and then at $1,277.40.

May silver futures bears have the solid near-term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum Tuesday as prices hit a 2.5-month low. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $20.40 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at $19.575 and then at $20.00. Next support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $19.22 and then at $19.00.
 
Stornoway Diamond Corp. Begins Drilling At Renard Project

Monday April 15, 2014 9:41 AM

Stornoway Diamond Corp. (TSX:SWY) OXN began its 2014 drill program at its Renard Diamond Project, located in northern Quebec. “The current drilling will test the resource potential of the Renard 2 kimberlite below the base of the currently defined Indicated Mineral Resource at 600 meters below surface, at which level Renard 2 is interpreted to be at its maximum size,” the company says. “Two drill rigs are currently set-up on surface at Renard 2 and are undertaking tightly constrained, deep directional drilling from within the kimberlite.” The company hopes the program will shift 6.2 million carats from inferred resources to indicated resources, adding an additional 4.2 to 7.3 million carats previously estimated to the inferred category at Renard 2 and continue exploration below depths of 800 meters. Stornoway is looking to bring online Quebec’s first diamond mine. By Alex Létourneau of Kitco News;
 
Metals Weaker Across Board; Technical Selling Exacerbates Slides
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News
Tuesday April 15, 2014 11:10 AM

(Kitco News) - Precious and base metals are getting whacked across the board Tuesday, with analysts are blaming much of the weakness on profit-taking and technically oriented selling.

There does not appear to be a single major breaking news event behind the selloffs, although some general risk aversion is hurting the more industrially oriented metals, they said. All of the metals – from gold to palladium to copper to nickel – are sharply lower.

“It’s not just gold, it’s also the base metals,” said one New York trader. “It started off with nickel. We’re just having kind of a panic in thin markets.”

The moves accelerated when a number of metals broke below chart support, triggering sell stops, he said. These are pre-placed orders activated when certain chart points are hit.

“It was a worldwide technical flinch,” he said of the broad-based weakness.

Around 10:40 a.m. EDT, gold for June delivery was $27.90 lower to $1,299.60 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. May silver was down 50.5 cents to $19.505 an ounce. Nymex July platinum lost $25.70 to $1,441.70. And just one day after hitting its highest level since 2011 on supply concerns due to a mining strike in South Africa and fears of Western sanctions against Russia, June palladium lost $15.60 to $795.90.

On the London Metal Exchange, three-month copper fell $124.75 to $6,542.25 per metric ton, while the Comex May contract was down 6.555 cents to $2.9820 per pound. LME aluminum lost $26.50 to $1,855.50 a ton. The biggest percentage loser among the base metals was nickel, which soared Monday and now is down $403 for the day to $17,387 per ton.

Last week, gold surged after minutes of the mid-March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, said Tommy Capalbo, precious metals broker at Newedge. The minutes showed policy-makers might be more dovish than initially thought in the immediate aftermath of the March 18-19 meeting.

“You do have some profit-taking and selling coming in,” Capalbo said. There has not been any major fresh news behind the decline, other than many traders anticipate the U.S. economy is improving, which may ultimately hurt gold, he and others said.

“We broke through $1,300 and stops got triggered,” Capalbo added. June gold fell as far as $1,284.40 an ounce. Not only was $1,300 a key psychological area, but this was near the 200-day moving average that was at $1,300.40 early in the Comex pit session.

TD Securities, in a morning metals report, commented that a stronger U.S. dollar and a surge in U.S. equities Monday, helped by strong retail sales, “have done the (precious) complex no favors. Stops are getting triggered as gold and silver continue to take out downside levels. We look for support in gold from $1,280-1,285 and $19.00-19.20 in silver.”

Capalbo also cited profit-taking in platinum group metals, especially high-flying palladium. Otherwise, he said, most market participants appear bullish on these metals.

“You do have a situation in palladium where it got up above $800. There was a feeling it was a little overbought,” Capalbo said. “You have…profit-taking, resettling into the $775-800 area.”

Robin Bhar, analyst with Societe Generale, blamed much of the weakness in the industrially oriented metals on a general risk aversion with European equities lower overnight and the U.S. dollar higher.

“Obviously, the tensions in Ukraine and Russia haven’t eased so that maybe that is worrying the markets,” Bhar said. “China’s growth is slowing.”

Chinese credit numbers were also worrisome to base-metals traders, said Bhar and Edward Meir, commodities consultant with INTL FCStone. The People’s Bank of China reported that aggregate financing of 2.07 trillion yuan in March was down 19% from 2.55 trillion a year ago. Meanwhile, a 12.1% year-on-year in Chinese M2 money supply on the surface looks “OK but have been inflated by a base effect from last year,” Bhar said. The growth was also below forecasts for more than 13%.

“That hit the Chinese equity markets hard,” Meir said. “We’re also seeing weaker emerging-market stock-market weakness. The Russian market was very weak and the ruble was very weak. They canceled a government bond auction. It seems to be one of those situations where people are getting a little risk averse and into the dollar and commodity markets are selling off as a result.”

Additionally, Meir said, some selling might be occurring ahead of a slew of Chinese economic data scheduled for release Wednesday. This includes retail sales, industrial production and gross domestic product.

A stronger dollar tends to hurt commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies, potentially hurting demand. The euro earlier traded down as far as $1.37905, compared to $1.38181 late Monday.

Gold often benefits from risk aversion, but in this instance, there may have been some selling of the metal to raise money for margin calls in other markets, Bhar said. Further, Bhar added, gold may have been hurt by a World Gold Council report saying much of the precious metal imported into China may be tied up in financing deals. If so, this means past data may “overstate” the amount of consumer demand in the country, he explained.

“The market is already running fearful of slowing China growth,” Bhar said. “The last thing it wants to see is that the gold may not have been physically consumed or made into jewelry, and may be just sitting in warehouses and therefore could be overhanging the markets.”
 
Gold drops nearly 2%; silver, copper take hits
Concerns over Chinese economic growth weigh on industrial metals

By Myra P. Saefong and Sara Sjolin, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures dropped nearly 2% on Tuesday, with analysts attributing the decline to profit-taking on the back of overall strength in the dollar after the prior session’s close at a three-week high for the metal.

Silver and copper, meanwhile, saw their prices take hits on concerns over China’s economic growth.

Gold for June delivery GCM4 -1.88% dropped $24.30, or 1.8%, to $1,303.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, set to erase an $8.50 gain from Monday, when prices closed at a three-week high.
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In Ukraine, pro-Russia crowd storms police station

All weekend, pro-Russia protesters - some with masks and guns - seized government buildings throughout Eastern Ukraine. On Monday, the latest target was a police station in Horlivka.

The fall in gold is due to profit-taking before the Easter holiday, with the decline also triggered by “buy stop losses and subsequent creation of intraday short positions,” said Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants in New Delhi, noting that huge long positions were created on Monday as gold managed to trade over $1,320.

But gold bulls “still have hope as long as it trades over March low” of $1,277.40, he said.

A report Tuesday that Russian forces were spotted on the ground in eastern Ukraine failed to attract any safe-haven buying for gold.

“It is a case of once bitten twice shy,” said Karnani. Traders had gone long Monday on Ukraine but gold fell Tuesday, he said. “Now they are extra cautious going long. The rise (if any) will be slow and steady unlike the fall which was quite fast.”

Still, Adam Koos, president and portfolio manager of Libertas Wealth Management Group, offered some upbeat comments on gold.

“The fact that gold has found itself bouncing around in the same old range is more positive than negative,” he said. “The more time that passes, the more the metal consolidates, the stronger the commodity gets (on a relative basis), and the higher the probability of near-term growth.”

Silver, copper sink

Silver led the losses on Comex Tuesday, with copper not that far behind.

“Silver and copper got slaughtered on speculation that Chinese growth numbers are much lower than official figures,” said Karnani.

Silver for May delivery SIK4 -2.47% sank 49 cents, or 2.5%, to $19.52 an ounce. High-grade copper for May delivery HGK4 -1.97% also fell 6 cents, or 2%, to $2.99 a pound.

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Economists expect first-quarter GDP to be up about 7.3% from a year earlier, well below the fourth quarter’s 7.7% pace. Slower growth could mean more problems in debt repayment across the financial sector. Chian releases its latest growth numbers on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, despite robust credit growth, China reported on Tuesday lower-than-expected money-supply growth in March. At the end of the month, the broad M2 measure of money supply was up 12.1% from a year earlier, short of the median 13% increase forecast by economists, and February’s 13.3% rise.

In a report issued Tuesday, the World Gold Council said that following record Chinese gold demand in 2013, this year is likely to be a year of consolidation. But medium-term demand for gold bars and coins could reach close to 500 metric tons by 2017 — a rise of nearly 25% above its record level last year, the WGC said.

For now, overall strength in the U.S. dollar put pressure on dollar-denominated metals prices. The ICE dollar index DXY +0.00% trades higher so far for the week, following an advance Monday after better-than-expected U.S. retail sales.

Gold prices on Tuesday lost more ground after news that the U.S. consumer price index rose 0.2% in March, with so-called core prices also ticking up by 0.2%.

Elsewhere in the metals spectrum, palladium for June PAM4 -2.01% slid $16.35, or 2%, to $795.15 an ounce, while sister metal July platinum PLN4 -1.70% shaved off $24.90, or 1.7%, to $1,442.50 an ounce.
 
Chinese Gold Demand To Rise 20% By 2017, Urbanization Main Driver

By Daniela Cambone of Kitco News
Tuesday April 15, 2014 11:00 AM

(Kitco News) - New York -- When China became the world’s largest gold market in 2013, the question that ultimately followed was, can this growth be sustained, said Albert Cheng, Managing Director of the World Gold Council.

The WGC released its latest report focused on China’s appetite for gold on Tuesday with the intent of addressing the sustainability of the market. The report found that private sector demand for gold in China is set to increase from the current level of 1,132 tonnes per year to at least 1,350t by 2017 - a growth of 20% over the next four years.

The global market should look to China as one of the engines of the global gold market, the other being India in that equation, said Cheng in an exclusive interview with Kitco News at the WGC’s headquarters in New York.

China officially became the top gold-consuming nation in 2013, as India, the previous title holder, severely restricted gold imports in an attempt to narrow is massive current account deficit.

Although there is some uncertainty in the short-term over China’s growth prospects, Cheng is not dissuaded that the economy will continue to expand. He added the country is in a period of “transition” and to be expected.

However, He said that the next six years will see China’s middle class grow from 200 million people to 500 million. “Comparing this to the total population of the US, which stands at 319m, puts the size of this new market of affluent consumers, with the propensity to buy gold, in perspective,” the WGC’s report said.

The sheer number of China’s population alone is enough of an indicator to sustain the demand for gold said Cheng. China’s continuing urbanization means that it now has 170 cities with more than one million inhabitants, he said.

And the report suggests the population has the disposable income to impact the gold market. “Chinese savings levels remain high, with an estimated US$7.5 trillion in Chinese bank accounts, despite household allocations to gold of around just $300bn,” highlights from the report said.

The report found that Chinese investors prefer physical gold over paper. It also said that in the medium term demand for bars and coins could reach 500t by 2017 -a rise of nearly 25% above the record level set last year.

China’s support for gold is also unwavering. “China has become the world’s number one jewelry market, nearly trebling in size over the past decade – at 669t in 2013, it accounts for 30% of global jewelry demand,” the WGC report said. The WGC estimates that demand will reach 780t by 2017.

The report said that 40% of Chinese jewelry consumption relates to weddings.

“Once the gold investor in China buys gold, it becomes sticky; it is not as tradable as we see in the U.S. - It is long-term,” said Cheng.

The biggest mistake investors can make is to draw the same analysis, comparing the Chinese gold market and the U.S. said Cheng. Understanding the mentality of the Chinese buyer is fundamental to having a solid grasp of the global gold market, he said.

“[They] look at what currently happens in the US market and use the same analysis to analyze the Chinese market, but the consumer behavior is different,” said Cheng. The Chinese buyer is more of a ‘bargain hunter’ than a ‘momentum buyer and are less price sensitive. “They want to buy to protect themselves from rainy days,’ said Cheng.

Official Gold Holdings

The WGC’s report also found that official gold holdings in China totaled 1,054t at the end of 2013 - making it the world’s sixth largest holder of bullion. :lol:

“Gold represents 1% of China’s total official reserves (down from a peak of almost 2% in 2012) due to the rapid growth of the country’s foreign exchange holdings which reached around US$3.8 trillion at the end of 2013,” the WGC said.

Cheng said that guesswork continues as to whether the Chinese government has increased its gold holdings, but that the WGC does not comment on speculation.
 
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