Rohstoffthread (Archiv)

[Klewe]

Where are the Stops? Wednesday, April 30: Gold and Silver

Wednesday April 30, 2014 08:29

Below are today's likely price locations of buy and sell stop orders for the active Comex gold and silver futures markets. The asterisks (**) denote the most critical stop order placement level of the day (or likely where the heaviest concentration of stop orders are placed on this day).

See below a detailed explanation of stop orders and why knowing, beforehand, where they are likely located can be beneficial to a trader.

June Gold Buy Stops Sell Stops
$1,296.80 $1,286.10
**$1,300.00 **$1,280.00
$1,306.60 $1,275.00
$1,310.00 $1,268.40
May Silver Buy Stops Sell Stops
$19.45 $19.00
**$19.59 **$18.93
$19.755 $18.80
$19.91 $18.50

 

[Klewe]

Barrick Reins In 1Q Costs; Reports Big Drop In Profit

By Kitco News
Wednesday April 30, 2014 7:50 AM

(Kitco News) - Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX)(NYSE:ABX) abr reported net earnings of $88 million, or 8 cents per share, in the first quarter, compared to net earnings of $847 million, or 85 cents per share, in last year’s quarter, due in part to varying "adjustments."

The company highlighted adjustments of $113 million in unrealized foreign currency translation losses, $30 million in demobilization costs related to the ramp-down of the Pascua-Lama mine and $18 million in realized and unrealized gains on non-hedge derivative instruments, the company said Wednesday.

"Barrick is a considerably different company today than it was a year ago - leaner, stronger and more financially flexible,” said Jamie Sokalsky, president and chief executive officer of Barrick, in a statement. “Our first quarter all-in sustaining costs of $833 per ounce, $100 per ounce below the prior year quarter, demonstrate that our efforts to reduce costs are delivering tangible results."

Gold production was expectedly lower at 1.588 million ounces, compared to 1.797 million ounces in last year’s comparative quarter, as the company divested several non-core mines year-on-year. The company is maintaining its original 2014 production guidance of 6 million to 6.5 million ounces at between all-in sustaining costs of $920 and $980 per ounce.

Copper production was lower at 104 million pounds, with the company revising its 2014 copper production guidance to between 410 million and 440 million pounds, compared to the initial 470 million and 500 million pounds, the company said.

First quarter operating cash flow of $585 million compares to $1.09 billion in the prior year period, due to lower net earnings while revenues were also lower at $2.632 billion, compared to $3.399 billion in last year’s first quarter, the company said. By Alex Létourneau of Kitco News

 

[Klewe]

Yamana Sees Further Potential From Osisko Assets – Yamana CEO
By Alex Létourneau of Kitco News
Wednesday April 30, 2014 9:51 AM

(Kitco News) - Yamana Gold Inc. (TSX:YRI)(NYSE:AUY) rny expects to get more than just the current ounces being produced at its recently acquired Canadian Malartic mine, said the company’s chief executive officer.

During the bidding war for Osisko Mining Corp. (TSX:OSK) with Goldcorp Inc. (TSX:G)(NYSE:GG), and with the eventual 50-50 partnership with Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (TSX:AEM)(NYSE:AEM) to secure the friendly takeover, the Canadian Malartic mine was touted as the jewel of the C$3.9 billion deal.

The Canadian Malartic mine produced 475,277 ounces of gold in 2013 and is expected to continue to ramp up to annual production of 600,000 ounces.

“We’ve always said we like mining-friendly jurisdictions with proven mining competencies, and we can surely tick the box that this transaction meets that hurdle,” said Peter Marrone, chief executive officer of Yamana, during conference call Wednesday morning. “We’re focused on mid-sized projects and acquisitions, and the addition of another 300,000 ounces (of gold) initially of annual production, should take us a long way toward meeting that objective.

“We believe we have the potential to enhance value through exploration, not only at the Canadian Malartic mine, but also at the Kirkland Lake advanced exploration properties,” he said.

Darcy Marud, executive vice president, enterprise strategy, also highlighted the Canadian Malartic’s fit into the fold, as well as the strong exploration discoveries and upside of the projects that came along with the acquisition, focusing on Kirkland Lake.

“The Canadian Malartic mine will also significantly contribute to both short- and long-term cash flow given its volume and low-cost profile, and will become Yamana’s second-largest contributor to cash flow, after El Penon,” Marud said.

He also noted excellent mineralization found at the Upper Beaver zone at Kirkland Lake, comparable to Canadian Malartic.

Low Metals Prices Drag 1Q Results To A Loss

The company saw a net loss of $29.6 million, or 4 cents per share, in the first quarter compared with net earnings of $102.1 million, or 14 cents per share, in last year’s first quarter. The loss was due to lower realized gold, silver and copper prices as well lower volume of metal sales and higher cost of sales.

Revenues dropped to $353.9 million in the first quarter compared with $534.9 million in the first quarter of 2013, while mine operating earnings were also lower at $33.1 million, compared with $208 million in the first quarter of 2013. The company said lower revenues and mine operating earnings were due to lower metal prices and to lower volume of gold and copper sales.

Yamana’s production dipped in the first quarter to 271,908 gold equivalent ounces, compared to 291,312 gold equivalent ounces in the first quarter of 2013. Silver production was flat while gold production was lower due to a more severe rainy season than usual.

The company reminded shareholders that the first quarter of the year is typically the lowest production-wise, increasing every quarter throughout the year.

All-in sustaining costs were down in the quarter, coming in below the company target of $850 at $820 per gold equivalent ounce on a by-product basis, compared to $856 per gold equivalent ounce for the first quarter of 2013. All-in sustaining costs on a co-product basis were also lower at $975 per gold equivalent ounce for the first quarter of 2014, compared to $1,014 per gold equivalent for the first quarter of 2013, the company said.

Copper production for the quarter was slightly higher at 27.6 million pounds from the Chapada mine, compared to 27.4 million pounds in the first quarter of 2013. Co-product cash costs per pound of copper were lower at $1.84 from the Chapada mine compared to $1.90 in the same quarter of 2013, the company said.

.Yamana declared a second quarter 2014 dividend of 3.75 cents per share.

By Alex Létourneau of Kitco News

 

[Klewe]

Improved Commodity Market Activity May Attract Money –INTL FCStone

Wednesday April 30, 2014 10:12 AM

Commodity and equity markets are diverging, with commodities performance improving, says INTL FCStone, which is attracting more money to the sector. Citing data released by Citigroup, INTL FCStone says total inflows into commodity index funds and commodity-linked exchange traded funds so far this year reached nearly $6 billion, with February and March being particularly strong. That compares to record $50 billion of net redemptions in 2013. INTL FCStone forecast these inflows will continue this year, “as the geopolitical concerns emanating from the Russian/Ukrainian crisis will likely not be ‘over’ any time soon, favoring commodities over equities. More importantly, we are seeing signs of fundamental improvement in a number of commodity complexes, particularly in base metals, where long-standing surpluses are gradually turning into a balanced or deficit markets. In the agricultural space, weather concerns will likely roil a number of markets further, ones already improving on their own accord fundamentally.”
By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News;

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-04-30/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets-April-30.html

 

[Klewe]

A.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Moves Up Following Weak U.S. GDP Report

Wednesday April 30, 2014 8:12 AM

(Kitco News) - Gold prices are near unchanged in early U.S. dealings Wednesday, after being under moderate selling pressure in overnight action. A weaker-than-expected U.S. gross domestic product report helped to lift gold. It’s a big U.S. economic day Wednesday and traders are bracing for some higher volatility. June gold was last up $0.50 at $1,296.70 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $1.20 at $1,297.50. May Comex silver last traded down $0.128 at $19.36 an ounce.

The advance first-quarter GDP figure came in at up 0.1%, compared to forecasts for a gain of 1.1% in the period. The surprisingly weak number popped the gold market a few dollars and brought prices back to near unchanged on the day.

Wednesday is an extra important trading day. Not only is important U.S. economic data released, it’s also the last trading day of the month, which makes it a critical day from a technical perspective. Wednesday afternoon finds the results of the latest two-day FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC is expected to continue to wind down its monthly bond-buying program, called tapering.

In overnight news, inflation in the European Union picked up in April, which is a good thing, given the recent worries about deflation gripping the bloc. However, the rise was not as much as economists expected. EU consumer prices rose 0.7% year-on-year, up from the 0.5% rate reported for the same period in March. The data lands in the camp of monetary policy doves that want the European Central Bank to further stimulate its monetary policy.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis is still on the radar screen of the world market place. The matter has not de-escalated. This situation is likely to get worse before it gets any better. Gold and other safe-haven assets will likely at least see selling interest limited due to the instability in Ukraine.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the employment cost index, the Chicago ISM business survey, the weekly DOE energy stocks report and the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement.

As the calendar turns to May the old stock market adage comes to mind: “Sell in May and go away.” If this seasonal phenomenon holds true this year and U.S. stock indexes weaken in the coming months, such would be a bullish underlying factor for the raw commodity sector, including gold. Reason: Raw commodities are a competing asset class with equities. And recently, it’s the equities that have been the winner in the quest for investor monies.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.0 (The Russia-Ukraine tensions are still elevated.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fixing is $1,292.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,297.75.

Technically, June gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,306.60. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $1,268.40. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,296.80 and then at $1,300.00. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $1,286.10 and then at $1,280.00.

May silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $19.91 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $18.93. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $19.45 and then at Tuesday’s high of $19.59. Next support is seen at $19.00 and then at $18.93.

 

[Klewe]

Comex Gold Backs Down From GDP-Inspired Gain, Awaits FOMC
By Allen Sykora Kitco News
Wednesday April 30, 2014 12:15 PM

(Kitco News) - U.S. gold futures backed down from their earlier economic data-inspired highs, with the market now consolidating and marking time until a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday afternoon.

As of 12:04 p.m. EDT, gold for June delivery was $3.30 lower at $1,293 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. July silver was down 30.8 cents to $19.23 an ounce.

The market made some swings so far in response to U.S. economic data, traders said.

Ahead of time, prices had an initially softer tone on expectations that an FOMC statement after a two-day meeting would show policy-makers would continue to taper the bond-buying program known as quantitative easing, said Dave Meger, director of metals trading with Vision Financial Markets.

The June futures then hit the session low of $1,284.90 around 10 minutes after a stronger-than-forecast private-sector employment report from ADP, which listed higher-than-forecast April jobs growth of 220,000. This added to ideas that Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report from the Labor Department will be strong, Meger said.

“However, quickly thereafter, we got a GDP number showing extremely low growth,” he continued. “We got a bounce off of the lows.”

In fact, five minutes after hitting the low for the day, prices shot to the session high of $1,297.50 after a report showing growth in U.S. gross domestic product was just 0.1% in the first quarter, the weakest performance in three years.

“Unfortunately, a lot of the core spending was accounted for by Obamacare, suggesting the report could have been weaker,” said Steve Scacalossi, head of sales for global metals with TD Securities.

The market since gave up some of its gains, with some pressure coming from a stronger-than-forecast rise in the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index to a 63 reading in April. Still, gold is in the upper half of the range for the day while waiting for a post-meeting statement from the FOMC Wednesday afternoon.

Since then, Meger described the market as “lingering” and oscillating back and forth as traders await an FOMC statement. In particular, he said, traders will watch to see if policy-makers say the economy is lagging or if they chalk up weak growth in the first quarter to an unusually harsh winter in much of the U.S.By Allen Sykora of Kitco News

 

[Klewe]

Yamana Has Potential To Bounce Back After Disappointing Year – CIBC

Wednesday April 30, 2014 11:56 AM

Canadian bank CIBC says that despite a disappointing past year, Yamana Gold Inc. (TSX:YRI)(NYSE:AUY) has the potential to bounce back. “While the evolution of the story over the past year has been disappointing relative to our expectations, there is still strong potential for Yamana to turn its existing operating portfolio around,” CIBC says. The bank says that “despite a weak first quarter, the company is expecting a stronger second half with higher ore grades profiles and the operating issues that plagued first-quarter production now largely resolved.” CIBC also doesn’t see the excessive pressure the company’s stocks have been under, since announcing the Osisko deal, “given the strategic and operational benefits to Yamana from the deal. A successful close of the acquisition and improved operations should help improve sentiment in the near term.”By Alex Létourneau of Kitco News;

Klewe schrieb am 30.04.2014, 17:30 Uhr[/url]"]Yamana Sees Further Potential From Osisko Assets – Yamana CEO
By Alex Létourneau of Kitco News
Wednesday April 30, 2014 9:51 AM

(Kitco News) - Yamana Gold Inc. (TSX:YRI)(NYSE:AUY) rny expects to get more than just the current ounces being produced at its recently acquired Canadian Malartic mine, said the company’s chief executive officer.

During the bidding war for Osisko Mining Corp. (TSX:OSK) with Goldcorp Inc. (TSX:G)(NYSE:GG), and with the eventual 50-50 partnership with Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (TSX:AEM)(NYSE:AEM) to secure the friendly takeover, the Canadian Malartic mine was touted as the jewel of the C$3.9 billion deal.

The Canadian Malartic mine produced 475,277 ounces of gold in 2013 and is expected to continue to ramp up to annual production of 600,000 ounces.

“We’ve always said we like mining-friendly jurisdictions with proven mining competencies, and we can surely tick the box that this transaction meets that hurdle,” said Peter Marrone, chief executive officer of Yamana, during conference call Wednesday morning. “We’re focused on mid-sized projects and acquisitions, and the addition of another 300,000 ounces (of gold) initially of annual production, should take us a long way toward meeting that objective.

“We believe we have the potential to enhance value through exploration, not only at the Canadian Malartic mine, but also at the Kirkland Lake advanced exploration properties,” he said.

Darcy Marud, executive vice president, enterprise strategy, also highlighted the Canadian Malartic’s fit into the fold, as well as the strong exploration discoveries and upside of the projects that came along with the acquisition, focusing on Kirkland Lake.

“The Canadian Malartic mine will also significantly contribute to both short- and long-term cash flow given its volume and low-cost profile, and will become Yamana’s second-largest contributor to cash flow, after El Penon,” Marud said.

He also noted excellent mineralization found at the Upper Beaver zone at Kirkland Lake, comparable to Canadian Malartic.

Low Metals Prices Drag 1Q Results To A Loss

The company saw a net loss of $29.6 million, or 4 cents per share, in the first quarter compared with net earnings of $102.1 million, or 14 cents per share, in last year’s first quarter. The loss was due to lower realized gold, silver and copper prices as well lower volume of metal sales and higher cost of sales.

Revenues dropped to $353.9 million in the first quarter compared with $534.9 million in the first quarter of 2013, while mine operating earnings were also lower at $33.1 million, compared with $208 million in the first quarter of 2013. The company said lower revenues and mine operating earnings were due to lower metal prices and to lower volume of gold and copper sales.

Yamana’s production dipped in the first quarter to 271,908 gold equivalent ounces, compared to 291,312 gold equivalent ounces in the first quarter of 2013. Silver production was flat while gold production was lower due to a more severe rainy season than usual.

The company reminded shareholders that the first quarter of the year is typically the lowest production-wise, increasing every quarter throughout the year.

All-in sustaining costs were down in the quarter, coming in below the company target of $850 at $820 per gold equivalent ounce on a by-product basis, compared to $856 per gold equivalent ounce for the first quarter of 2013. All-in sustaining costs on a co-product basis were also lower at $975 per gold equivalent ounce for the first quarter of 2014, compared to $1,014 per gold equivalent for the first quarter of 2013, the company said.

Copper production for the quarter was slightly higher at 27.6 million pounds from the Chapada mine, compared to 27.4 million pounds in the first quarter of 2013. Co-product cash costs per pound of copper were lower at $1.84 from the Chapada mine compared to $1.90 in the same quarter of 2013, the company said.

.Yamana declared a second quarter 2014 dividend of 3.75 cents per share.

By Alex Létourneau of Kitco News

 

[Klewe]

 

[Klewe]

GOLD UND ROHÖL
Gold: Fed sorgt für Nervosität

Am Abend wird die US-Notenbank Fed ihr Sitzungsergebnis veröffentlichen. Zuvor stehen noch einige wichtige US-Konjunkturindikatoren an.

von Jörg Bernhard

Von besonderem Interesse dürften in diesem Zusammenhang die ersten Schätzungen zum BIP-Wachstum der USA im ersten Quartal sein. Laut einer Bloomberg-Umfrage unter Analysten soll sich dieses gegenüber dem Vorquartal von plus 2,6 auf plus 1,1 Prozent reduziert haben. Eine positive Überraschung könnte den Goldpreis im Vorfeld der Fed-Statements belasten. Zuletzt lieferte die Geldpolitik weniger Argumente zum Kauf von Gold, schließlich reduzierte die Fed ihre Stützungskäufe in den vergangenen Monaten recht deutlich. An den Finanzmärkten wird nun mit einer erneuten Reduktion der Stützungskäufe um weitere zehn Milliarden auf 45 Milliarden Dollar pro Monat gerechnet.
Am Mittwochvormittag präsentierte sich der Goldpreis mit stabilen Notierungen. Bis gegen 8.00 Uhr (MESZ) ermäßigte sich der am aktivsten gehandelte Future auf Gold (Juni) um 3,40 auf 1.292,90 Dollar pro Feinunze.

Rohöl: Warten auf BIP, EIA und Fed

Zur Wochenmitte präsentierte sich der Ölpreis mit nachgebenden Notierungen. Am Dienstagabend meldete das American Petroleum Institute einen Anstieg der gelagerten Ölmengen um drei Millionen Barrel und generierte dadurch leichten Verkaufsdruck. Neue Impulse könnte es am Nachmittag geben, wenn das BIP-Wachstum der USA (14.30 Uhr) und der offizielle Wochenbericht der US-Energiebehörde EIA (16.30 Uhr) veröffentlicht werden. Laut einer Bloomberg-Umfrage unter Analysten soll es in der vergangenen Woche einen Anstieg der Lagermengen um 2,2 Millionen Barrel auf ein neues Rekordniveau gegeben haben. Angesichts dieses Umstands bewegt sich der Ölpreis derzeit auf relativ hohem Niveau - die Unsicherheit (Ukraine-Konflikt) lässt grüßen.
Am Mittwochvormittag präsentierte sich der Ölpreis mit nachgebenden Notierungen. Bis gegen 8.00 Uhr (MESZ) ermäßigte sich der nächstfällige WTI-Kontrakt um 0,84 auf 100,44 Dollar, während sein Pendant auf Brent um 0,34 auf 108,64 Dollar zurückfiel.

 

[Klewe]

STREIK NICHT VOM TISCH
Platin: Günstige Einstiegschance

Hoffnungen auf ein Ende des Streiks in Südafrika lassen den Kurs sinken. Zeitweise notierte das Edelmetall unter der Marke von 1.400 Dollar je Feinunze.

von Thomas Strohm, Euro am Sonntag

Der Platinpreis hat in jüngster Zeit nachgegeben und ist zeitweise unter die Marke von 1.400 Dollar je Feinunze gesunken. Grund dafür war die Hoffnung, dass der seit drei Monaten andauernde Streik der Minenarbeiter in Südafrika enden könnte, nachdem die Arbeitgeber ein verbessertes Angebot vorgelegt hatten.

Gewerkschafter sehen die Offerte jedoch noch immer weit entfernt von den eigenen Forderungen. Eine baldige Einigung und ein tatsächliches Ende des Ausstands ist daher fraglich. Der Streik könnte sich nach Ansicht von Analysten auch noch länger hinziehen.

Klar scheint zudem: Eine Einigung dürfte für die Minenbetreiber teuer werden - und die höheren Kosten könnten den Platinpreis treiben. Die Nachfrage nach dem Edelmetall, das vor allem für Katalysatoren gebraucht wird, ist jedenfalls groß. Und die Lagerbestände sind wegen der Produktionsausfälle bereits gesunken. Anleger, die den aktuellen Kursrücksetzer nutzen wollen, um auf einen im Jahresverlauf steigenden Platinpreis zu setzen, können das mit einem ETC der Deutschen Bank machen: Der db Physical Platinum (ISIN: DE 000 A1E K0H 1) ist währungsgesichert und bildet die Entwicklung des Platinpreises eins zu eins ab.

 

[Klewe]

VERMÖGENSVERWALTER-KOLUMNE
Gold: Verlierer nach der Finanzkrise

Die Entscheidung der US-Notenbank, weniger Geld in den Markt zu pumpen, belastet den Goldpreis.

von Dr. Marc-Oliver Lux von Dr. Lux & Präuner GmbH & Co. KG in München

Mit Turbulenzen an den Aktienmärkten hatten die meisten Experten gerechnet. Doch der wahre Verlierer der Fed-Entscheidung, die Anleihenkäufe seit Januar langsam zu drosseln, ist das Gold. Das Edelmetall hat letztes Jahr mit dem größten Jahresverlust seit mehr als 30 Jahren abgeschlossen.

Kurz vor Weihnachten erreichte der Goldpreis mit 1.186 US-Dollar je Feinunze (31 Gramm) den niedrigsten Stand seit mehr als drei Jahren. Dem amerikanischen Aktienmarkt hat die Ankündigung der US-Notenbank stattdessen sogar gut getan. Die Zuversicht von Aktienkäufern rührte vor allem daher, dass der Leitzins wohl doch noch längere Zeit bei Null bleibt.

Dabei ist es schon etwas verwunderlich, dass der Goldpreis leidet, obwohl die Fed die US-Wirtschaft immer noch massiv unterstützen muss. Experten nennen dafür zwei Gründe:

1. Die befürchtete Inflation lässt auf sich warten.
2. Die US-Wirtschaft fasst tatsächlich wieder Fuß, das Vertrauen in sie steigt.

Gold wäre einer der größten Profiteure von Inflation, denn es hat als knappes Edelmetall quasi einen eingebauten Inflationsschutz. Und die Angst vor der Geldentwertung war in den vergangenen Jahren deutlich gestiegen. Besonders weil Kritiker der Fed-Politik wiederholt predigten, dass eine Geldblase entstehen muss, wenn die Notenbank stetig frisches Geld in die Wirtschaft pumpt. So gewann der Goldpreis von Dezember 2008 bis Juni 2011 rund 70 Prozent an Wert, während die Fed das Finanzsystem mit mehr als zwei Billionen Dollar flutete.

Der Theorie nach haben die Kritiker auch recht. Doch in der Praxis ist bisher das Gegenteil der Fall: In den USA liegt die Inflation bei 1,2 Prozent - nur halb so hoch wie in der vergangenen Dekade. Das wiegt Investoren in Sicherheit. Die Ankündigung der Fed, weniger Anleihen aufzukaufen, nimmt zudem zunächst zusätzlichen Inflationsdruck. Auch 2014 wird Inflation somit kein großes Thema sein. Das wieder erstarkte Vertrauen in die US-Wirtschaft schadet dem Gold zusätzlich: Die Arbeitslosenquote sinkt kontinuierlich, die Wirtschaft wächst.

Fazit:

Die Aussichten für Gold bleiben zunächst verhalten, auch wenn der Goldpreis einen gewissen Boden gefunden haben mag. Bis Mitte März konnte der Goldpreis sogar fast 200 US-Dollar zulegen. Doch so richtig Dynamik in Richtung der alten Hochs mag nicht aufkommen. Gold ist für viele Anleger keine strategische Anlageklasse, denn sie bringt keine regelmäßige Erträge wie Zinsen oder Dividenden. Umso mehr wird der Goldpreis von der Psychologie der Anleger, von Angst und Spekulation getrieben. Daher ist nicht auszuschließen, dass der Goldpreis auch nochmal unter 1000 US-Dollar fällt. Einige namhafte Milliardäre wie George Soros haben sich bereits vor einiger Zeit von ihren Goldbeständen verabschiedet. Doch das mag wenig als Indikator für einen langfristig orientierten Anleger taugen, denn diese Investoren verhalten sich extrem opportunistisch und können von heut auf morgen wieder mit Milliarden investiert sein.

 

[Klewe]

GOLD UND ROHÖL
Rohöl: WTI testet 100-Dollar-Marke

Das BIP-Wachstum der USA fiel im ersten Quartal mit einem Plus gegenüber dem Vorquartal in Höhe von 0,1 Prozent enttäuschend aus und drückte den WTI-Future auf 100 Dollar.

von Jörg Bernhard

Zwei Events könnten sich im weiteren Handelsverlauf auf den Preis des fossilen Energieträgers stark auswirken. Neben dem Wochenbericht der US-Energiebehörde EIA dürften sich die Akteure an den Energiemärkten aber auch für die Statements der US-Notenbank Fed (20.00 Uhr) interessieren. Da in Europa am morgigen Donnerstag feiertagsbedingt kein Handel stattfinden wird, dürften diverse US-Konjunkturindikatoren dann ganz oben auf der Watchlist stehen. Besonders hohe Wellen könnten in diesem Zusammenhang zum Beispiel die wöchentlichen Neuanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe, die persönlichen Einnahmen und Ausgaben der US-Amerikaner sowie der ISM-Einkaufsmanagerindex für den Industriesektor schlagen.
Am Mittwochnachmittag präsentierte sich der Ölpreis mit fallenden Notierungen. Bis gegen 14.45 Uhr (MESZ) ermäßigte sich der nächstfällige WTI-Kontrakt um 0,94 auf 100,34 Dollar, während sein Pendant auf Brent um 0,40 auf 108,58 Dollar zurückfiel.

Gold: Nachfrage gerät ins Stocken

Seit sieben Tagen stagniert die gehaltene Goldmenge des weltgrößten Gold-ETFs SPDR Gold Shares bei 792,14 Tonnen. In China nahm die Nachfrage an der Shanghai Gold Exchange vor dem morgigen Feiertag sogar deutlich ab. So ging es mit den dortigen Umsätzen gegenüber dem Vortag von 19.959 auf 10.444 kg (-47,7 Prozent) nach unten. Aktuell halten sich die Schwankungen des Ölpreises in Grenzen. Am Abend könnte sich dies jedoch wieder ändern, schließlich steht um 20.00 Uhr die Bekanntgabe des Sitzungsergebnisses der US-Notenbank Fed an. Deren Statements werden mit großer Spannung erwartet und könnten dem Edelmetall - je nach Tenor - frische Impulse verleihen.
Am Mittwochnachmittag präsentierte sich der Goldpreis mit stabilen Notierungen. Bis gegen 14.45 Uhr (MESZ) ermäßigte sich der am aktivsten gehandelte Future auf Gold (Juni) um 3,00 auf 1.293,30 Dollar pro Feinunze

 

[Klewe]

P.M. Kitco Roundup: Gold Sells Off Modestly in Wake of FOMC Statement that Showed No Surprises

Wednesday April 30, 2014 2:24 PM

(Kitco News) - Gold prices were trading weaker in the aftermath of the latest monetary policy statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve. A weak near-term technical posture in gold allowed the bears to take control in afternoon trading Wednesday. However, losses in gold were limited by a lower U.S. dollar index and some safe-haven buying interest. June gold was last down $4.50 at $1,291.80 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $4.00 at $1,292.50. May Comex silver last traded down $0.393 at $19.095 an ounce.

The Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) once again tapered its monthly bond-buying program by $10 billion and did not say much new or different from the last meeting. The FOMC statement was pretty much a non-event for the market place as far as new revelations.

In other U.S. data Wednesday, the advance first-quarter GDP figure came in at up 0.1%, compared to forecasts for a gain of 1.1% in the period. The surprisingly weak number popped the gold market a few dollars and brought prices to near unchanged on the day, after trading moderately lower overnight. Two other U.S. data readings were a bit stronger than expected Wednesday, which did work to mitigate the GDP report.

In other overnight news, inflation in the European Union picked up in April, which is a good thing, given the recent worries about deflation gripping the bloc. However, the rise was not as much as economists expected. EU consumer prices rose 0.7% year-on-year, up from the 0.5% rate reported for the same period in March. The data lands in the camp of monetary policy doves that want the European Central Bank to further stimulate its monetary policy.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis is still on the radar screen of the world market place. The matter has not de-escalated. This situation is likely to get worse before it gets any better. Gold and other safe-haven assets will likely at least see selling interest limited due to the instability in Ukraine.

Trader attention now turns to important manufacturing data coming out of China on Thursday.

As the calendar turns to May the old stock market adage comes to mind: “Sell in May and go away.” If this seasonal phenomenon holds true this year and U.S. stock indexes weaken in the coming months, such would be a bullish underlying factor for the raw commodity sector, including gold. Reason: Raw commodities are a competing asset class with equities. And recently, it’s the equities that have been the winner in the quest for investor monies.

The London P.M. gold fixing is $1,288.50 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,297.75.

Technically, June gold futures prices closed nearer the session high Wednesday. Gold bears still have the near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old downtrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,306.60. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,268.40. First resistance is seen at $1,300.00 and then at this week’s high of $1,306.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,284.90 and then at $1,280.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0

May silver futures prices closed nearer the session low Wednesday, closed at a monthly low close and at a three-month low close. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $19.91 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $18.93. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $19.45 and then at $19.59. Next support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $19.035 and then at $18.93. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

May N.Y. copper closed down 425 points at 303.00 cents Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low and saw more profit taking. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. A six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart was negated today. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 313.90 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 300.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 305.00 cents and then at Wednesday’s high of 308.35 cents. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 302.50 cents and then at 301.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

[Klewe]

Watch Gold's Reaction To Payrolls Data – UBS

Thursday May 1, 2014 8:01 AM

How gold reacts to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data could be telling for market direction, especially if the data come out weaker than expected, says UBS. The firm says gold’s muted response to soft first-quarter gross domestic product data suggests that investors “don’t have enough conviction to buy the metal.” If payrolls come out below consensus and gold doesn’t rally, “then this would be quite a damaging outcome for the yellow metal. After all, U.S. monetary policy forces are the leading push and pull factors for gold currently,” the firm says. Investor sentiment in gold is bearish, UBS says, so “the greater price reaction should therefore come from a 'good' payrolls report tomorrow, which finally spurs negative sentiment into negative positioning. To swing investors from bearish to bullish requires time; many will prefer to wait until the break higher is already established rather than being directional leaders.”By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-05-01/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets-May-01.html

 

[Klewe]

Aurcana Reports Steep Full-Year Loss, Silver Equivalent Production Up

Thursday May 1, 2014 11:23 AM

Aurcana Corp. (TSXV:AUN) uhy reports a $134.8 million net loss in 2013, compared to net earnings of $10 million in 2012, due to a $114.1 million impairment charge on the Shafter Mine, as well as an additional $15.9 million expense. The Shafter mine was put on care and maintenance on Dec. 13, due to lower metals prices. The company produced 2,868,460 silver equivalent ounces in 2013, a 14% increase year-on-year while revenues decreased to $45 million in 2013 from $56.9 million in 2012 due to decreases in metals prices and producing lower-grade silver. Production cash costs per silver equivalent ounce rose to $10 ounce in 2013, from $9.42 in 2012, the company says. The company expects higher production throughout 2014 on the back of its La Negra mine. "The continued production growth in 2013 and the completion of the expansion at La Negra position Aurcana Corp. to become a mid-tier silver producer in 2014 from the La Negra mine alone," says Lenic Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of Aurcana.By Alex Létourneau of Kitco News;

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-05-01/KitcoNews-kitco-mining-minutes-May-01-2014.html

 

[Klewe]

Goldcorp Expects Free Cash Flow By 4Q 2014 – Goldcorp CEO
By Alex Létourneau of Kitco News
Thursday May 01, 2014 2:06 PM

(Kitco News) - Goldcorp Inc. (TSX:G)(NYSE:GG) go5 expects to begin generating free cash flow by the fourth quarter of 2014 as the company will see three new projects come online this year.

During the company’s first-quarter earnings conference call, Chuck Jeannes, president and chief executive officer of Goldcorp, said even with a lower gold price environment, the company can achieve free cash flow.

“As we deliver low-cost production from the existing mines, complete out capital spending on the new projects and then see the new gold revenues come into the picture, the result is free cash flow,” Jeannes said. “Even at an assumed $1,200 gold price for the rest of 2014, we expect free cash flow in the fourth quarter this year.

“And of course we expect that free cash flow to grow strongly in 2015 and beyond,” he added.

The company has three new mines coming online in 2014. All projects on track, Jeannes said, as Cerro Negro is a few months away from first gold. The company’s Eleonore project remains on schedule and on budget with first gold planned in the fourth quarter, as well as Cochenour coming on in the Red Lake camp.

“Forecast production growth of about 50% over the next two years will be driven by three new mines coming online starting this year,” Jeannes said.

He also touched on the Osisko Mining Corp. (TSX:OSK) deal that fell through with Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (TSX:AEM)(NYSE:AEM) and Yamana Gold Inc. (TSX:YRI)(NYSE:AUY) teaming up for the friendly takeover.

“It’s been an active quarter for us from an M&A standpoint, with the withdrawal of our Osisko bid overshadowing two successful divestitures of non-core assets in the form of our share position in Primero and majority interest in the Marigold joint venture,” Jeannes said. “While I’m disappointed we didn’t get to the finish line on the Osisko deal, I’m absolutely convinced that we did the right thing in not increasing our offer to a level that would leave us unable to deliver appropriate returns for our shareholders.”

Goldcorp 1Q Profit Down; Costs Lower As Production Rises

Goldcorp reported net earnings of $98 million, or 12 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2014 compared to $309 million, or 38 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2013.

The dip in net earnings comes from the losses from the foreign exchange translation of deferred income tax assets and liabilities, losses from the foreign exchange on capital projects, and the gain from the disposition of mining interests, the company said.

Adjusted net earnings in the first quarter totaled $209 million, or 26 cents per share, compared to $253 million, or 31 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2013.

Production was higher in the quarter at 679,900 ounces of gold, compared to 614,600 ounces of gold in last year’s comparative quarter. Gold sales were up to 684,000 ounces in the quarter from 595,100 ounces of gold, year-on-year.

All-in sustaining costs per gold ounce dropped to $840 from $1,134 per ounce a year ago. Silver production totaled 9.6 million ounces, compared to silver production of 5.6 million ounces in the prior year's first quarter, the company said.

Adjusted revenues were flat year-on-year at $1.2 billion as higher production was offset by lower metals prices. Adjusted operating cash flow was lower at $281 million, 35 cents per share, compared to $400 million, or 49 cents per share, in last year's comparative quarter, the company said.

Goldcorp reconfirmed guidance for 2014 of between 2.95 million and 3.10 million ounces, following the divestiture of Marigold, at all-in sustaining costs of between $950 and $1,000 per gold ounce, the company said.By Alex Létourneau of Kitco News

 

[Klewe]

Agnico-Eagle First Quarter Earnings Rise On Higher Gold Output

(Updated with new details throughout, interview with Sean Boyd)

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News
Thursday May 1, 2014 6:08 PM

(Kitco News) - Agnico-Eagle Mining Ltd. (TSX: AEM)(NYSE: AEM) ae9 said late Thursday first quarter net-income rose on the back of higher gold production and lower production expenses, with net income at $108.9 million, or 63 cents per share.

The Toronto-based firm saw record quarterly gold production of 366,421 ounces at a cash cost of $537 per ounce, with record quarterly gold output at its Meadowbank mine in Nunavit of 156,444 ounces at a cash cost of $434 per ounce.

The firm saw a significant jump in its net income in the first quarter of 2014, compared to the first quarter of 2013 when it reported net income of $23.9 million or 14 cents a share. Agnico-Eagle also overcame the significant loss seen in the fourth quarter, when it reported a loss of $453.3 million, or $2.61 per share when the firm had to take a non-cash impairment charge of $436.3 million after tax because of the sharp drop in gold prices.

Sean Boyd, chief executive officer of Agnico-Eagle, attributed the strength in the first quarter to the good operating performance the firm saw in the fourth quarter of 2013. Even though Agnico saw a loss last year, it was on an impairment charge.
“Several key mines continued to show good (production), especially Meadowbank,” Boyd said.

Part of Agnico’s rise in quarterly net income stemmed from a non-cash foreign currency translation gain of $8.3 million, or 5 cents per share, non-cash stock option expense of $9.5 million, or 5 cents per share and other non-recurring gains of $3.3 million, or 2 cents a share. Excluding these items would result in adjusted net income of $106.8 million, or 61 cents per share.

Agnico’s higher net income came despite realized gold prices being $1,308 in the first quarter, versus the $1,611 used in the first quarter of 2013, the firm said.

Payable gold production in the first quarter was 366,421 ounces compared to 236,975 ounces in the first quarter of 2013, the firm said. The increased output came primarily due to higher grades at Meadowbank, a full quarter of production at Goldex, in Quebec, higher grades and better recoveries at LaRonde, also in Quebec, and the ramp-up to commercial production at La India, where commercial production was achieved as of February.

Because of the strong output in the first quarter, Agnico now expects gold production to exceed the higher end of the 2014 guidance range of 1.175 million to 1.205 million ounces, while total cash costs are expected to be under the lower end of the guidance range of $670 to $690 per ounce. The company previously said this year’s output was forecast to be higher in the first half of the year because of higher grades expected at Meadowbank. For the full year 2014, the all-in sustaining costs are seen to be lower than the previous forecast of $990 per ounce.

Boyd said Agnico is confident to raise its production guidance for 2014 so quickly because of how well major mines produced in the first quarter. He said that the firm will update their guidance figures later.

“It’s really the strength of the first quarter. It’s the strength of Meadowbank and La Ronde, which got off to such a strong start. We’ve also seen good cost performance at the Meadowbank, Goldex and LaRonde mines."

Cash and cash equivalents were $206.8 million as of March 31, up from $170 million as of Dec. 31. Higher realized metal prices, lower costs and record quarterly gold production lifted the balance sheet, while outstanding debt on the $1.2 billion credit facility fell to $120 million at the end of March, versus $200 million at the end of December.

Capital expenditures in the first quarter were $98.8 million and these costs are expected to be $431 million, slightly higher than the previous guidance of $416 million on the back of new project approvals. Those include accelerated waste stripping at the Vault deposit at Meadowbank, ramp development at Goldex and productivity improvements at La India. These capital cost increases are likely to be offset by lower operating costs at the respective mines, the firm said.

Agnico said between its current available cash, anticipated cash flows and available bank lines, the firm will be fully funded for the development and exploration of its current pipeline of approved gold projects in Canada, Finland and Mexico, as well as the Osisko acquisition.

The joint acquisition of Osisko Mining with Yamana Gold, announced on April 16, would give Agnico indirect holding of 50% of the Canadian Malartic mine in the Abitibi region of Quebec, and the Kirkland Lake, Hammond Reef, Pandora and Wood Pandora properties.

The firm said the Osisko acquisition is a good strategic fit with its existing mines in the region. The acquisition is expected to add to Agnico’s existing production profile on a per share basis and improving the overall cost structure. By partnering with Yamana, Agnico Eagle can keep its equity dilution low. Once the acquisition is done, Osisko shareholders will hold about 16.7% of Agnico’s shares and Agnico will finance its share of the purchase with about C$500 million of its $1.2 billion revolving credit line.

Osisko shareholders are set to meet May 30, and the deal is expected to close in early June.

Agnico is retaining its dividend payout of 8 cents a share. In the fourth quarter Agnico reduced the dividend payout to 8 cents from 22 cents because of last year’s drop in gold prices.

 

[Klewe]

P.M. Kitco Roundup: Gold Down on Technical Selling, Upbeat U.S. Economic Data

Thursday May 1, 2014 2:25 PM

(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session moderately lower Thursday. A lack of fresh, bullish news for the gold market is allowing the technical traders to dominate—and the near-term technical posture for gold remains bearish. Also, generally upbeat U.S. economic data released Thursday fell in favor of the bearish camp of gold traders. June gold was last down $10.70 at $1,285.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $6.00 at $1,285.75. May Comex silver last traded down $0.079 at $19.04 an ounce.

After digesting Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the “take away” from that report is that the U.S. economy is picking up momentum after a rough winter. Thursday’s U.S. economic data fell in line with the FOMC statement. Such has allowed the major stock indexes to hover near their recent record highs, and in turn is a bearish underlying factor for other asset classes, including gold and silver.

In overnight news, the much-anticipated China official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 50.4 in April from 50.3 in March, it was reported Thursday. That reading was right in line with market expectations and had little impact on the market place.

The market place is awaiting what is arguably the most important economic report of the month on Friday: the April U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up around 215,000.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis is still on the radar screen of the world market place. However, there has been little fresh news coming from that region this week. Still, this situation is likely to get worse before it gets any better. Gold and other safe-haven assets will likely at least see selling interest limited due to the instability in Ukraine.

The London P.M. gold fixing is $1,278.50 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,288.50.

Technically, June gold futures prices closed near mid-range Thursday. Gold bears have the near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old downtrend line is firmly in place on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,306.60. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,268.40. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $1,293.00 and then at $1,300.00. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $1,277.30 and then at $1,268.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.5

May silver futures prices closed nearer the session high Thursday after hitting a 10-month low early on. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $19.91 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $18.68. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $19.17 and then at $19.45. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $18.75 and then at $18.68. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

May N.Y. copper closed up 50 points at 303.45 cents Thursday. Prices closed near the session high on short covering. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 313.90 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 300.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 305.00 cents and then at 308.35 cents. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of 301.25 cents and then at 300.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

[Klewe]

BLEIERNES POTENZIAL
Industriemetalle: Buy Blei

Der Verbrauch von Blei wird 2014 über dem Angebot ­liegen. Die Vorräte sind ­bereits gesunken. Der Preis für das Metall dürfte demnach klettern.

von Thomas Strohm, Euro am Sonntag

Die Nachfrage nach Blei lag in den ersten Monaten des Jahres 2014 über dem Angebot. Fürs gesamte Jahr erwartet die International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) nun, dass die weltweite Nachfrage das Angebot um 49.000 Tonnen übersteigt. Im Oktober hatte die ILZSG für 2014 lediglich ein Angebotsdefizit von 23.000 Tonnen des Industriemetalls prognostiziert.

Die Bleivorräte in den Lagern der London Metal Exchange (LME) sind erstmals seit September wieder unter die Marke von 200.000 Tonnen gefallen. Das deute auf ein angespanntes Jahr am Bleimarkt hin, sagt Eugen Weinberg, Rohstoffanalyst der Commerzbank: "Dies sollte sich auch in höheren Preisen im Jahresverlauf widerspiegeln."

Der Großteil des Bleis wird für die Produktion von Batterien verwendet, die vor allem in Fahrzeugen zum Einsatz kommen. Die derzeit gute Automobilkonjunktur sorgt für Nachfrage. Hinzu kommt, dass sich das Wirtschaftswachstum in China zuletzt nicht weiter abgeschwächt hat: Der Einkaufsmanagerindex für die Industrie verharrte im April zwar unter der Wachstumsschwelle von 50, stieg aber leicht auf 48,3 an. Die Volksrepublik war 2013 der weltweit größte Verbraucher von Blei.

 

[Klewe]

KONJUNKTURDATEN IM FOKUS
Ölpreise kaum verändert

Die Ölpreise haben sich am Freitag vor der Veröffentlichung wichtiger US-Konjunkturdaten kaum verändert gezeigt.

Ein Barrel (159 Liter) der Nordseesorte Brent zur Lieferung im Juni kostete am Morgen 107,71 US-Dollar. Das waren fünf Cent weniger als am Vortag. Der Preis für ein Fass der amerikanischen Sorte WTI fiel um einen Cent auf 99,41 Dollar.

Die Anleger warten auf die US-Arbeitsmarktdaten für April und hielten sich am Ölmarkt zunächst zurück, hieß es aus dem Handel. Die Daten werden am Nachmittag veröffentlicht und der Markt rechnet mit einem Zuwachs der Beschäftigung um 218 000. Zuvor hatte ein neues Rekordhoch bei den Ölreserven in den USA die Ölpreise belastet./jkr/zb

 

[Klewe]

SILBER UND ROHÖL
Silber: Charttechnische Hochspannung

Obwohl sich die industrielle Nachfrage bei Silber in den vergangenen Monaten relativ robust entwickelt hat, droht aus charttechnischer Sicht ein Bruch der massiven Unterstützungszone.

von Jörg Bernhard

An den physisch besicherten Silber-Finanzprodukten lag dies allerdings nicht. Deren gehaltene Silbermenge hat sich seit dem Jahreswechsel um 1,5 Prozent erhöht. Zum im Oktober gemeldeten Rekordniveau fehlen lediglich etwas mehr als zwei Prozent. Eine massive Stimmungseintrübung war in den vergangenen beiden Monaten vor allem an den Terminmärkten zu beobachten. In diesem Zeitraum fuhren große und kleine Spekulanten ihre Netto-Long-Position von 39.769 auf 22.773 Futures (-42,7 Prozent) zurück. Am Abend veröffentlicht die Commodity Futures Trading Commission ihren wöchentlichen COT-Report (Commitments of Traders). Angesichts der prekären charttechnischen Lage ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit für einen erneuten Rückgang des Optimismus in der Woche zum 29. April relativ hoch. Zusätzlicher Verkaufsdruck dürfte aufkommen, falls der knapp unter 19 Dollar verlaufende Boden verletzt wird. Seit Juli erwies sich dieser Bereich allerdings als ausgesprochen robust und tragfähig.
Am Freitagvormittag präsentierte sich der Silberpreis mit gehaltenen Notierungen. Bis gegen 8.00 Uhr (MESZ) ermäßigte sich der am aktivsten gehandelte Future auf Silber (Juli) um 0,038 auf 19,005 Dollar pro Feinunze.

Rohöl: Nach Rückgang stabil

In den vergangenen beiden Handelstagen ging es mit dem fossilen Energieträger markant bergab. Vor dem Wochenende stehen wichtige Einkaufsmanagerindizes aus Frankreich, Deutschland sowie aus der Eurozone und der Schweiz zur Bekanntgabe an. Daneben dürften sich die Investoren aber vor allem für die Europas Arbeitslosenrate und die Entwicklung des US-Arbeitsmarktes interessieren. Laut einer Bloomberg-Umfrage unter Analysten soll sich in den USA die Arbeitslosenrate im April von 6,7 auf 6,6 Prozent reduziert haben. Zugleich soll sich die Zahl neu geschaffener Stellen von 192.000 auf 215.000 erhöht haben. Sollten die tatsächlichen Zahlen hiervon markant abweichen, könnte es an den Energiemärkten zu stärkeren Kursbewegungen kommen.
Am Freitagvormittag präsentierte sich der Ölpreis mit stabilen Notierungen. Bis gegen 8.00 Uhr (MESZ) ermäßigte sich der nächstfällige WTI-Kontrakt um 0,02 auf 99,40 Dollar, während sein Pendant auf Brent um 0,01 auf 107,77 Dollar anzog.

 

[Kesso]

Gold - Ausbruch nach unten wird wahrscheinlicher Gold

 

[Kesso]

Gold: Neue Preistreiber? Gold

 

[Klewe]

PRECIOUS-Gold set for weekly drop on funds selling ahead of U.S. data

Fri May 2, 2014 6:21am EDT

By Clara Denina

LONDON, May 2 (Reuters) - Gold steadied on Friday after two losing sessions but was headed for its second week of losses in three on expectations of a robust U.S. jobs number and continued selling in the top bullion-backed exchange-traded fund.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust dropped 2.39 tonnes to 785.55 tonnes on Thursday, after losing 4.19 tonnes on Wednesday.

The fund saw an outflow of 25 tonnes in April, the first monthly outflow after two months of inflows and worst since December. Its movements are a good measure of underlying investor sentiment.

Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,284.88 an ounce by 1006 GMT, ranging in the narrowest trade for four months. It was down about 1.4 percent for the week.

U.S. gold futures for June delivery rose 0.7 percent to $1,284.20 an ounce.

Investors were eyeing the U.S. April nonfarm payrolls report, due to be published at 1230 GMT, for further clues on the economy, which has shown strength in recent weeks after a severe winter hurt the first quarter.

Gold prices would come under pressure if growth exceeded economists' expectations for a 210,000 increase in jobs and a fall in the unemployment rate to 6.6 percent.

Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve looked past a dismal reading on first-quarter U.S. growth and gave a mostly upbeat assessment of the economy's prospects as it announced another cut in its massive bond-buying stimulus.

"For gold, the salience of the nonfarm payrolls seems somewhat reduced by the Fed seemingly being on auto pilot with regards to its tapering activity," Macquarie analyst Matthew Turner said.

"A bad number, given the GDP data earlier this week, would call into question the strength of the economy, but seems unlikely to change the Fed's policy."

In wider markets, the dollar inched up from three-week lows against a basket of currencies on expectations of a robust U.S. jobs number, while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields held above two-month lows of 2.6 percent hit in the previous session.

Returns from U.S. bonds are closely watched by the gold market, given that the metal pays no interest.

"The inability of gold to rally despite U.S. Treasury 10-year yields falling highlights that there is little conviction in the gold market at present, and we maintain the view that prices could retrace further," ANZ said in a report.

Gold, often seen as an insurance against geopolitical risks, failed to be lifted by safe-haven buying after violence escalated in eastern Ukraine between government forces and pro-Russian separatists.

In the physical markets, demand has picked up slightly this week but was still lower than last year's levels.

With markets in top buyer China closed for a holiday, investors are looking to India, the second biggest consumer, for support.

India is celebrating Akshaya Tritiya on Friday, the second-biggest gold buying festival when it is considered auspicious to buy gold.

Silver, with a 2.4 percent weekly loss, is headed for its worst performance in six weeks. It was up 0.6 percent to $19.12 an ounce. Spot platinum rose 0.2 percent to $1,420.24 an ounce, while spot palladium rose 0.2 percent to $811.50 an ounce. (Additional reporting by A. Ananthalakshmi in Singapore; Editing by Mark Potter)

 

[Klewe]

Eldorado Gold Swings To 1Q Profit; Production Rises

Friday May 2, 2014 7:50 AM

Eldorado Gold Corp. (TSX:ELD)(NYSE:EGO) elo reports net profit of $31.3 million, or 4 cents per share, compared to a loss of $45.5 million, or 6 cents per share a year ago, while gold production also rose. “The first quarter of 2014 proved to be another strong quarter for the company, with gold production of 196,523 ounces, representing a 20% increase over the first quarter 2013,” says Paul Wright, chief executive officer of Eldorado Gold. “Within the organization our employees are dedicated to continuously improving safety, operational performance and overall cost reductions, enabling Eldorado to remain one of the lowest-cost gold producers, as demonstrated by our all-in sustaining cash costs for the quarter of $786 per ounce.” Wright says the company remains on track to achieve its 2014 production guidance of between 730,000 to 800,000 ounces of gold at all-in sustaining costs of $950 per ounce. Revenues were lower in the quarter at $247.6 million, compared to $307.2 million due to a lower gold price while gold sales were slightly higher in the quarter at 190,628 ounces. The company’s average realized gold price in the first quarter was $1,299 per ounce, compared to $1,622 per ounce last year.By Alex Létourneau of Kitco News;

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-05-02/KitcoNews-kitco-mining-minutes-May-02-2014.html

 

[Klewe]

HSBC: U.S. Mint Gold Coin Sales Up From March But Down Year-On-Year

Friday May 2, 2014 8:11 AM

U,S, Mint data show gold-bullion coin sales in April totaled 56,000 ounces, up 70% from 33,000 in March but down 77% from 246,500 in for the same month last year, says HSBC. “The pick-up in gold coin sales in April from the previous month is a sign that retail investors remained upbeat on the yellow metal as prices fell to an average of USD1,299/oz in April from an average of USD1,335/oz in March,” the bank says. “Gold coin sales are often used as a gauge for retail investor demand, which typically rises during periods of price drops and weakens during periods of price rallies. The (year-on-year) drop in gold coin sales for April can be explained by the larger base as sales surged immediately after the two-day price rout in mid-April 2013.” Mint silver coin sales in April were listed at 4,590,500 ounces, down from 5,354,000 in March but up from 4,087,000 in April of 2013.By Allen Sykora of Kitco News

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-05-02/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets-May-02.html

 

[Klewe]

CME Group Metals Volume Declines During April
By Kitco News
Friday May 2, 2014 8:20 AM

(Kitco News) - SCME Group April metals volume was down from both March and the same month a year ago, the exchange operator said on Friday.

Metals volume in April averaged 321,000 contracts a day, down 40% from 532,000 in the same month a year ago when there was especially heavy volume during a sharp selloff in gold. Last month’s tally was also down 16% from the average of 382,000 in March.

For the rolling three-month average that ended in April, metals volume averaged 351,000 contracts a day. This was down slightly from 355,000 for the three-month period ending in March but up from 318,000 for the period ending in February and 328,000 for the three months ending with January.

Total volume for all markets that trade on CME Group averaged 12.2 million contracts a day in April, the exchange operator said. This was up 6% from 2013. A 40% year-on-year jump occurred in volume for interest-rate markets, where volume averaged 6 million a day.

Total volume for April was more than 256 million contracts, of which 87% was traded electronically. size=9]By Allen Sykora of Kitco News[/size]

 

[Klewe]

A.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Weakens Following Stronger-Than-Expected U.S. Jobs Data

Friday May 2, 2014 8:45 AM

(Kitco News) - Gold prices are weaker in early U.S. trading Friday, losing early modest gains in the immediate aftermath of a U.S. jobs report that beat market expectations. June gold was last down $4.30 at $1,279.20 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $10.00 at $1,281.75. May Comex silver last traded up $0.011 at $19.00 an ounce.

Arguably the most important economic report of the month was just released: the April U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number came in at up 288,000, which handily beat the consensus forecast of up around 215,000. In March, the non-farm payrolls figure was up 192,000. The U.S. unemployment rate also fell and previous months’ non-farm figures were revised up. This report falls into the bearish camp of gold traders, who reckon the Federal Reserve will continue on its path of tapering its monthly bond purchases.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis was ratcheted up another notch Friday as reports said the Ukraine military is conducting major operation against pro-Russia separatists to regain control of an eastern Ukraine city. Gunfire was reported in the city of Slovyansk. Somewhat surprisingly, the markets are taking this news in stride and without much anxiety. But that could change come Monday morning. Gold is seeing selling interest limited on the heightened Russia-Ukraine tensions.

In other overnight news, the European Union’s unemployment rate was reported at 11.8% in March—the same as in February. Analysts had forecast the rate to come in at 11.9%. Meantime, the Euro zone manufacturing PMI came in at 53.4 in April from 53.0 in March. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion. However, in another sign that deflationary pressures could be building the EU, manufacturers reported the prices they paid for their inputs dropped in the latest month, and said the prices they charged for their own products fell, too.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the ISM New York report on business, and manufacturers’ shipments and orders.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.5 (The Russia-Ukraine tensions are still elevated.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fixing is $1,285.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,278.50.

Technically, June gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A seven-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,306.60. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $1,268.40. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,288.50 and then at Thursday’s high of $1,293.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,272.00 and then at $1,268.40.

May silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hit an 11-month low Thursday. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $19.91 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $18.68. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $19.17 and then at Wednesday’s high of $19.45. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $18.865 and then at this week’s low of $18.75.

 

[Klewe]

Where are the Stops? Friday, May 2: Gold and Silver

Friday May 02, 2014 08:57

Below are today's likely price locations of buy and sell stop orders for the active Comex gold and silver futures markets. The asterisks (**) denote the most critical stop order placement level of the day (or likely where the heaviest concentration of stop orders are placed on this day).

See below a detailed explanation of stop orders and why knowing, beforehand, where they are likely located can be beneficial to a trader.

June Gold Buy Stops Sell Stops
$1,288.50 $1,272.00
$1,293.00 **$1,268.40
**$1,300.00 $1,260.00
$1,306.60 $1,250.00
May Silver Buy Stops Sell Stops
$19.17 $18.865
**$19.45 $18.75
$19.59 **$18.68
$19.755 $18.50

 

[Klewe]

Feeder Cattle at Record Head for Longest Rally Since 1977
By Elizabeth Campbell May 2, 2014 6:17 PM GMT+0200

Prices for young cattle extended a rally to a record, climbing for the 10th straight session and on pace for the longest rising streak since 1977.

The number of animals placed in feedlots in March fell 4.7 percent from a year earlier, government figures showed on April 25. Higher costs for the cattle, which are fattened on corn before being sold to meatpackers, signal an increase in beef prices that already are the highest ever.

The cattle herd in the U.S., the world’s largest beef producer, shrank to the smallest in 63 years as of Jan. 1, as ranchers struggled to recover from years of drought, government data show. Slaughter of young female cows, called heifers, dropped 7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, a sign that the animals are being held back for breeding.

“With the droughts and the liquidation we’ve had in cattle, we knew the final phase of this bull market was to try and retain heifers,” Don Roose, the president of U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa, said in a telephone interview. “And that means the feeder-cattle pool, which was already tight, continues to tighten.”

Feeder-cattle futures for August settlement rose 0.5 percent to $1.914 a pound at 11:15 a.m. on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, after reaching an all-time high of $1.917.

Retail ground-beef prices in the U.S. averaged a record $3.698 a pound in March, government data show, and wholesale beef has surged 14 percent this year, increasing expenses for restaurants including Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. and Ruth’s Hospitality Group Inc. Pricier meat is helping to boost global food costs, which rose to a 10-month high in March, the latest United Nations data show.

Feedlot operators typically buy year-old animals that weigh 500 pounds (227 kilograms) to 800 pounds, called feeders. The cattle are fattened on corn for four to five months until they weigh about 1,300 pounds, when they are sold to meatpackers.

Cattle futures for June delivery fell 0.3 percent to $1.388 a pound. Hog futures for June settlement dropped 0.2 percent to $1.22575 a pound.