WTI Reaches Two-Week High on Supply; Brent Premium Slips
By Mark Shenk May 13, 2014 4:45 PM GMT+0200
West Texas Intermediate oil rose to a two-week high on amid speculation that U.S. crude inventories dropped a second week. The premium of Brent to WTI narrowed.
Futures advanced as much as 0.9 percent in New York. Crude supplies probably slipped 500,000 barrels to 397.1 million last week, according to a Bloomberg survey before a government report tomorrow. Stockpiles reached 399.4 million in the week ended April 25, the highest level since the government began publishing weekly data in 1982. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, probably fell from a five-year low.
“There’s a lot of positioning taking place in advance of tomorrow’s inventory report,” said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. ‘The consensus is for a second draw. After climbing to a record just a couple weeks ago, it appears that the days of testing 400 million barrels are over.’’
WTI for June delivery rose 55 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $101.14 a barrel at 10:24 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $101.52, the highest intraday level since April 29. The volume of all futures traded was 15 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day.
Brent for June settlement increased 20 cents to $108.61 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 19 percent higher than the 100-day average. The European benchmark crude traded at a $7.47 premium to WTI, down from $7.82 at yesterday’s close.
Stockpiles Slip
U.S. crude stockpiles slipped 1.78 million barrels in the week ended May 2, according to the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm. The EIA is scheduled to release last week’s inventory data tomorrow at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.
Gasoline inventories probably rose by 300,000 barrels last week, according to the median estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, increased by 500,000 barrels, the survey shows.
Rebels in eastern Ukraine said they’re seeking to join Russia after disputed referendums. The U.S. and the European Union have said they’re willing to add to sanctions imposed after Russia annexed Crimea in March if President Vladimir Putin doesn’t do more to quell unrest in Ukraine.
“It’s clear we’re moving on inventory projections because much of the geopolitical and financial news we pay attention to is bearish,” Yawger said. “There continues to be unrest in eastern Ukraine but Putin has made no move to annex the region. The dollar is showing continuing strength as well, which should be sending us lower.”
Currency Moves
The dollar climbed to the highest level in more than a month against the euro. The U.S. currency rose as much as 0.4 percent. A stronger dollar reduces the appeal of dollar-denominated raw materials as an investment.
The global oil market will remain “fairly balanced” this year as supply disruptions including delays at the Kashagan field in Kazakhstan prevent the buildup of a surplus, according to the monthly oil market report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries published today.
OPEC, responsible for about 40 percent of the world’s oil supply, estimates it will need to provide an average of 29.8 million barrels a day this year, about 100,000 a day more than the group projected last month. OPEC raised the estimate because of lower output of natural gas liquids, the group’s Vienna-based research department said.
[url=http://peketec.de/trading/viewtopic.php?p=1478640#1478640 schrieb:
Klewe schrieb am 13.05.2014, 13:22 Uhr[/url]"]UPDATE 6-Brent rises towards $109 on Libya output doubts, Ukraine
Tue May 13, 2014 11:09am BST
* Libya says reopening western oilfields, but output unchanged
* Pro-Moscow rebels in east Ukraine call to join Russia
* China's implied oil demand rose 1.1 pct in April (Recasts, updates prices)
By David Sheppard
LONDON May 13 (Reuters) - Brent crude reversed early losses to rise towards $109 a barrel on Tuesday, as traders expressed doubt about how quickly supplies will return from Libya, while the threat of further Western sanctions against Russia provided further support.
Libya said on Monday its western oilfields were ready to reopen, having been blocked by protests since March, potentially raising crude output from the North African country by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd).
On Tuesday output from the country was still just 235,000 bpd, however, a spokesman for the National Oil Corporation said, and the timing of any restart at three major fields in the west remained unclear.
Brent crude for June delivery was up 42 cents at $108.83 a barrel by 1000 GMT, after closing up 52 cents in the previous session. Prices had slipped in early trade to a low of $108.05, but reversed after the Libyan NOC statement.
U.S. crude rose 77 cents to $101.36a barrel, after climbing 60 cents to $100.59 a barrel in the previous session.
"The reaction to the announcement in Libya has been fairly limited given the risk surrounding the issues in Ukraine," said Carsten Fritsch, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
Pro-Moscow rebel leaders called for Donetsk to become part of Russia, while Moscow appeared to use the results of a disputed referendum to put pressure on Kiev to hold talks with rebels in two breakaway regions.
The European Union imposed sanctions on a top aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the commander of Russian paratroopers as well as on two confiscated Crimean energy companies, raising pressure on Moscow.
Saudi Arabia's oil minister has pledged that the world's biggest oil exporter would boost supplies if any disruption is caused by the crisis in Ukraine.
The head of the International Energy Agency, the west's energy watchdog, said it had no plans to release emergency crude oil stocks due to the tensions with Russia.
"We only release stocks when there is a serious disruption the market cannot solve," IEA head Maria van der Hoeven said on the sidelines of a conference in Seoul.
SUMMER DRIVING
U.S. oil futures were also being supported by a possible draw in crude inventories last week as the United States nears the start of its summer driving season with higher demand for fuel, ANZ analysts said in a note.
The consensus estimate of four analysts in a Reuters poll on Monday, however, showed commercial crude oil stocks would remain unchanged at 397.6 million barrels in the week to May 9.
The survey was taken ahead of weekly inventory reports from industry group, the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Growth in China's industrial production and retail sales for April came in below forecasts on Tuesday, further confirming a slowdown in growth in the world's second-largest oil consumer as the government drives reform of the economy.
Industrial production climbed 8.7 percent against a forecast 8.9 percent, while retail sales rose 11.9 percent, compared with an estimate of 12.2 percent. Both growth figures were the weakest in at least five years.
China's implied oil demand in April climbed 1.1 percent to 9.71 million bpd from a year earlier, according to a Reuters calculation based on preliminary data.
